Food security in a warming world by Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)   Mar. 2026   Climate change is steadily weakening the foundations of food security: reducing food availability, making food less accessible, worsening malnutrition and diminishing the effectiveness of food use. And as shocks repeat, it turns short-term stress into long-term fragility.   These pressures are felt most severely in countries and communities with the least capacity to cope. Yet, many measures used in food security analysis capture only part of the picture and some indices do not cover the countries most at risk.   To address this gap, we constructed a new Food Security Index for 162 countries, which assesses performance across four distinct pillars: availability, access, utilisation and sustainability.   Most governments now accept climate change will likely cause significant disruption to food supplies, and that in many places it is already leading to failed harvests or lower crop yields. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) science tells us the impacts on health, and on food and water security, are already showing.   This new IIED Food Security Index offers more granular data to identify weaknesses in systems of food supply, offering policy makers more options to help withstand increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather.   The index incorporates data from a large number of sources and, allows users to examine that data as it relates to four ‘pillars’ of food security.   These are the availability, meaning existence, of adequate food; the accessibility of that food to households, for example, whether it’s affordable; its nutritional value and whether people are healthy enough to absorb those nutrients (‘utilisation’); and the sustainability, or resilience, of food systems.   Ritu Bharadwaj, the researcher behind this work, said: “Unpacking all four pillars is important because climate shocks rarely affect food security through only one channel. They tend to hit several aspects across these pillars at once, and the dominant constraint can differ between countries.   “For example, a heatwave might damage crops close to harvest time, creating an immediate pressure on availability. If instead that extreme heat prevents a family’s breadwinner from working, their lower income means they’re less able to access food even if it’s otherwise available.”   At a global scale the index reveals a deeply divided and unfair distribution of food insecurity: lower-income countries tend to score much lower than the wealthiest, and the gap only widens when the predicted effects of climate change are factored in.   Analysis shows a strong link between higher historic greenhouse gas emissions and improved food security, while entire regions that have contributed much less to global temperature rise languish towards the bottom of the rankings.   Vulnerability to the effects of climate change is correlated with both lower historic emissions and lower food security scores, a glaring injustice.   “Climate change is rapidly becoming one of the most powerful drivers of hunger and food insecurity across the world, particularly in countries where poverty, fragility, and limited fiscal space already constrain resilience,” said Renato Domith Godinho, director of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty Support Mechanism.   “This report provides important new evidence on food security outcomes… exploring how climate impacts are likely to deepen existing inequalities in food systems, with the most severe consequences seen in the most vulnerable countries.”   “In fragile and conflict-affected countries, climate change is already reshaping the realities of food security,” said Abdihakim Ainte, director of food security and climate change in the Somalia government.   “In Somalia, repeated droughts and floods are disrupting agricultural production, pastoral livelihoods and local markets, pushing vulnerable communities closer to crisis with each successive shock. When climate impacts intersect with fragility, limited fiscal space and ongoing humanitarian pressures, the risks to food security become far more severe.   “This report provides valuable new evidence on how climate change could further intensify these pressures across countries… it highlights how rising temperatures and increasing climate variability are likely to deepen existing inequalities in food systems. For countries facing fragility, strengthening food security is inseparable from strengthening resilience.”   IIED research shows investing in social protection schemes designed to pay out as soon as possible after disaster strikes can save countries billions, compared to scrambling together emergency responses afterwards. In some cases social protection schemes can also be used to create infrastructure that will lessen the impact of later climate shocks.   Support costs money, but climate-related pressures on food security is greatest on countries that often have little room for manoeuvre in fiscal terms. This means that secure, predictable finance will be important, so nations can avoid taking out new loans reactively and storing up debt interest repayment problems for later.   http://www.iied.org/any-country-truly-food-secure-climate-change-era http://www.iied.org/pathways-for-global-food-security-warming-climate http://www.iied.org/collection/iied-food-security-index http://www.iied.org/22705iied Visit the related web page
	WFP warns rising food and fuel prices risk pushing global hunger higher by WFP, OCHA, agencies   Mar. 2026   The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is warning that the total number of people around the world facing acute levels of hunger could reach record numbers in 2026 if the conflict in the Middle East continues to destabilize the world’s economy.   New analysis by WFP estimates that almost 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity or worse (known as IPC3+) if the conflict does not end by the middle of the year, and if oil prices remain above USD 100 a barrel. These would add to the 318 million people around the world who are already food insecure.   When the Ukraine war began in 2022, triggering a cost of living crisis, global hunger reached record levels with 349 million people impacted. WFP’s latest projections indicate we are at risk of facing a similar situation in the months ahead if the Middle East conflict continues. During the 2022 period, food prices were fast to spike but slow to come down. This meant that vulnerable families already struggling with hunger were priced out of staple food items almost overnight, and for extended periods of time.   While in 2026 the conflict involves a global energy hub and not a breadbasket region, the potential impact is similar because energy and food markets are tightly correlated.   In many parts of the world, vulnerable families who today are currently managing to put some food on the table may soon find they are only able to afford little or no food.   “If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest," said WFP Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Carl Skau. "Without an adequately funded humanitarian response, it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge.”   The virtual shipping standstill in the Strait of Hormuz and mounting risks to Red Sea maritime traffic are already increasing energy, fuel, and fertilizer costs, deepening hunger beyond the Middle East. The conflict reverberates far and wide — and the world’s most vulnerable people are the ones who will be most exposed to its ripple effects.   According to WFP’s analysis, countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are the most vulnerable due to a reliance on food and fuel imports. Projections indicate an increase of 21 percent in food-insecure people for West and Central Africa and 17 percent for East and Southern Africa. An increase of 24 percent is forecast for Asia.   Sudan, for example, imports around 80 percent of its wheat – a higher price for this staple will push more families into hunger. In Somalia, a country in the midst of severe drought, the price of some essential commodities has risen by at least 20 percent since the conflict began, according to local reports. Both are countries with high levels of food insecurity that have also experienced famine in recent years   This crisis comes amid severe funding shortfalls for WFP which has forced significant prioritization of programmes across all continents, ultimately meaning that people in need of assistance are being left behind. Further increases in food insecurity that are not matched by increased resources could spell catastrophe for some of the world’s most vulnerable countries that are already at risk of famine.   http://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-projects-food-insecurity-could-reach-record-levels-result-middle-east-escalation http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167147   23 Mar. 2026   Millions of people around the world at risk, after three weeks of the war in the Middle East, by Jorge Moreira da Silva, UN Under-Secretary-General and UNOPS Executive Director.   Severe disruptions in supply chains and shipping routes impact availability and prices of basic goods, increasing deprivation and vulnerability.   The escalation of conflict in the Middle East continues to have a devastating toll on civilians and livelihoods with global ripple effects.   Nearly a month into this devastating war, the impact is far reaching, across borders of conflict-affected countries, shaking the world economy amid exponential price hikes in oil, fuel and gas.   Disruptions to and closures of airspace, transportation, shipping routes and key humanitarian crossings across the Middle East are impacting humanitarian operations and commercial supply chains, including availability and prices of basic goods and pharmaceuticals.   The Strait of Hormuz carries around one quarter of global seaborne oil trade, along with large volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. Attacks on commercial vessels, stranded ships and seafarers threaten the delivery of basic supplies, risk higher food prices, and further strain fragile health systems. In Gaza, access restrictions are limiting the entry of life-saving supplies and hindering humanitarian operations.   Developing countries in Asia and the African continent are likely to bear the heaviest brunt. Disruptions in the Hormuz Strait compromise the delivery of energy supplies. Fertilizer markets are impacted, threatening food security in countries where famine or food insecurity are highest including Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia.   During the course of the year, the number of people living in hunger around the world is likely to increase by tens of millions. A widening war in the Gulf could also threaten remittance flows, primarily to South Asia.   Our world is the most violent it has been since the Second World War. The number of people uprooted and forced to flee their homes is increasing by the hour. One million people are now displaced in Lebanon, and another 3.2 million people in Iran. People around the region continue to search for safety. In most countries, no place is safe as schools, medical facilities and people’s homes are coming under constant attack.   Vulnerable people in the Middle East and beyond have suffered enough. Following decades of turmoil, repeated wars, economic stagnation, sanctions and socio-economic crises, people in the region deserve and need peace, stability and sustainable development.   There is no military solution. The only way to end this mayhem and people’s suffering is through diplomatic and peaceful solutions.   * The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol warns the energy crunch prompted by the US-Israel war on Iran exceeds the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks and gas shortages stemming from Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine put together.   Birol said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy facilities had reduced global oil supplies by about 11 million barrels per day, more than double the combined shortfalls of the 1970s’ crises. He said liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies had been reduced by about 140 billion cubic metres, compared with a shortfall of 75bcm in the aftermath of Ukraine’s invasion by Russia.   “The global economy is facing a major threat today, and I very much hope that this issue will be resolved as soon as possible,” Birol said. At least 40 energy facilities across nine countries have been severely damaged in the conflict, he said.   On Friday, the Paris-based intergovernmental organisation, which earlier this month announced plans to coordinate the release of 400 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles, proposed a series of measures governments could take to reduce energy consumption. The proposed measures include facilitating more remote working and carpooling, and lowering speed limits on motorways.   The IEA chief said he was in consultation with different countries about releasing more strategic oil reserves if needed, but the “single most important solution” to the crisis was to open the strait, which usually carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies.   Oil prices have surged more than 50 percent since the start of the war, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, followed by Iran’s blockade of the critical energy waterway.   http://www.unops.org/news-and-stories/speeches/millions-of-people-around-the-world-at-risk-over-three-weeks-on-the-war-in-the-middle-east   * ACAPS: 18 March 2026 Egypt:   Food prices in Egypt are increasing following the Government’s announcement of a 30% rise in fuel prices, driven mainly by the conflict escalation in the Middle East and supply chain disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising prices are likely to reduce purchasing power and hinder food access in a context where around 49% of households face insufficient food access and 21% of the population (22.5 million people) live below the national poverty line. The prices of key items, including fruits, vegetables, bread, and meat, have increased. For example, tomato prices have surged by 200%, potatoes by 87%, and bread by up to 50% in some areas, with nationwide bread prices projected to increase by 15–20% if disruptions continue. Besides higher fuel costs, rising agricultural input costs, dry weather conditions are further driving price increases.   8 Mar. 2026   WFP warns rising food and fuel prices risk pushing global hunger higher   The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is warning that surging food and fuel prices driven by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have ripple effects that will worsen hunger for vulnerable populations in the region and beyond.   The escalation has already had a devastating impact on civilians bearing the brunt of the violence through mass displacement, loss of life, and the destruction of essential infrastructure.   As the conflict disrupts supply chains, drives up costs and weakens the purchasing power of families, people already on the edge could be pushed further towards severe food insecurity.   Early impacts of the conflict on food security:   The conflict is already having immediate food security impacts in the Middle East. In Lebanon, significant internal displacement is occurring within a population that has been grappling with high levels of food insecurity for several years.   In Iran, preexisting economic pressures are compounding the crisis. Economic stagnation, high food inflation, and rapid currency depreciation were already driving food insecurity prior to the current conflict, leaving households with limited capacity to absorb further shocks.   In Gaza, border closures at the onset of the crisis triggered sharp food price increases. While one crossing have since reopened, food prices remain elevated, continuing to constrain access to affordable food.   Beyond the region, the conflict is causing severe global supply chain disruptions with an unprecedented ‘dual chokepoint’ scenario for transport affecting shipping, energy, and fertilizer markets with clear knock-on effects.   A significant share of the global fertilizer supply transits through the Strait of Hormuz; any disruption there risks reduced availability, lower crop yields, and hence higher global food prices.   Tom Fletcher, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator:   "The consequences of the war in the Middle East do not stop at the front lines. Beyond the impact on civilians, the fallout will ricochet through markets, shipping and aviation routes, and food prices – across the region and around the globe.   The impact on our lifesaving humanitarian work will be immense. Millions of people are at risk. We are already seeing this play out. Fuel prices have soared, driving up global shipping costs. Flight and maritime disruptions have slowed the movement of goods and personnel, putting humanitarian supplies at risk of six-month delays. Global supply chains are under strain.   And traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most vital trade corridors – has slowed to a trickle. When ships stop moving through that Strait, the consequences travel fast. Food, medicine, fertilizer and other supplies become harder to move and more expensive to deliver.   Humanitarian supply chains are fragile. When routes close and costs surge, the help we can deliver shrinks – and the people who need it most are the ones who lose it first.   http://unctad.org/news/hormuz-shipping-disruptions-raise-risks-energy-fertilizers-and-vulnerable-economies http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167167 http://reliefweb.int/report/world/fao-chief-economist-warns-severe-global-food-security-risks-disruption-strait-hormuz-trade-corridor http://www.mercycorps.org/press-room/releases/Middle-East-Conflict-Economic-Impacts-Africa http://www.wfp.org/news/global-disruptions-supply-chains-are-driving-tomorrows-hunger-crisis http://www.wfp.org/global-hunger-crisis http://www.icrc.org/en/statement/icrc-president-war-on-essential-infrastructure-is-war-on-civilians http://www.unocha.org/latest/news-and-stories   * Oil prices and food prices move in concert with energy prices affecting every stage of the food supply chain from the fertilisers used in the fields to the trucks that carry food from the fields to supermarket shelves. Rising oil prices directly affect shipping and the cost of transportation.   In lower-income countries, where populations spend a far greater share of their income on food and import large quantities of grain and fertiliser, rising oil prices will translate into higher food prices and potential food shortages.   For much of the world, higher energy prices will raise the cost of living, lead to higher inflation and interest rates curtailing economic growth and increasing unemployment.   Mar 12, 2026   Worries of fertilizer crisis stemming from Iran War, by Noah Gordon and Lucy Corthell - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace   The war in Iran has already claimed many direct victims, from the more than 100 children killed in a U.S. strike on an Iranian elementary school, to the Iranians inhaling toxic substances released by Israeli strikes on oil facilities in and around Tehran, to those soldiers and civilians killed and wounded across the region by the conflict.   And no matter how quickly the fighting ends—wars often resist one protagonist’s desire to end them—its indirect victims could include billions of people hoping for good harvests and affordable meals in the coming year.   The Gulf region is a key producer not only of liquified natural gas (LNG) and oil products but also of fertilizer. About one-third of global seaborne trade in fertilizers typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been nearly entirely closed since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.   In particular, Gulf countries are important producers of nitrogen fertilizers, which depend primarily on natural gas burned at high pressure in the presence of hydrogen to synthesize ammonia. (The hydrogen usually comes from natural gas as well.)   But it’s not just that Gulf fertilizer can’t make it to export markets such as Sudan, Brazil, or Sri Lanka. It’s also that fertilizer producers elsewhere lack key ingredients. This is where the second-order effects of a supply chain crisis appear, just as they did during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which sent fertilizer prices soaring.   Deprived of their natural gas supplies from Qatar, fertilizer firms in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have had to shut down production. Egypt, another important producer, has lost its gas imports from Israel and must turn to the ever-pricier LNG market. The benchmark price of urea, the most widely traded fertilizer, is up about 30 percent in the last month.   The damage extends beyond nitrogen to another key crop nutrient, phosphorus. Gulf countries produce around 20 percent of phosphate fertilizers, and as well as a quarter of global sulfur, which is largely an oil and gas byproduct. Fertilizer producers need sulfur (sulfuric acid, to be precise) to turn phosphate rock into a liquid that plants can absorb.   Because fertilizer has less value than oil and gas, political and business leaders expend fewer resources to make sure it keeps flowing. A ship captain bold enough to brave drone strikes and dash through the Strait of Hormuz would prefer to carry oil than fertilizer, a preference that would be shared by any potential navy escort, which the United States is in any case not yet able to provide.   G7 countries don’t maintain strategic fertilizer reserves to match their oil stockpiles. The pipeline that Saudi Arabia built to enable exports through the Red Sea rather than the Strait of Hormuz is for oil, not ammonia products.   To be clear, about half of fertilizer is not traded internationally at all. The United States, a land of abundant natural gas, produces about three-quarters of the fertilizer it consumes, while China is even more self-sufficient. But because these are globally traded commodities, problems in one place ripple throughout the global economy.   Even before the war in Iran, China was restricting fertilizer exports to protect its own farmers—but it needs Brazil, which is highly dependent on Middle Eastern urea, to be able to grow soybeans to feed to the pigs and cows in both countries. U.S. importers have seen the price of urea at the port in New Orleans rise more than 25 percent since the end of February, pushing the president of the American Farm Bureau Federation to write a plaintive letter to President Donald Trump warning that this “production shock” threatens national security. The price of urea as a ratio of the price of corn is approaching record levels.   This bad news comes at a bad time, just before spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere. Farmers typically order fertilizer in March to apply in April or May. Now, the president of the South Carolina Farm Bureau is worried “farmers are not going to be able to finance planting their crop” while economists and fertilizer analysts expect “inflation going through the roof” over coming months as crops planted today are supposed to be arriving in supermarkets.   Like anyone else with a fossil-fueled vehicle, U.S. farmers are also paying more for fuel since the war started, diesel fuel being the relevant one for agriculture.   As in the 2022 crisis, poorer countries will suffer the most. As Carnegie nonresident scholar Adam Tooze noted, the countries whose fertilizer use (and yields) fell most in 2022 included Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. The fertilizer shortage of 2022, caused by the loss of many Russian and Belarusian products and a spike in gas prices, was one reason for a stark rise in global food prices in that year.   The most dramatic example came from Sri Lanka, whose president had made the baffling decision to ban synthetic fertilizer such as urea and ammonia in 2021. Local agriculture collapsed, as did his government, and he had to flee the country.   In 2022 countries such as Sri Lanka could at least count on foreign aid to help fill gaps. With the U.S. Agency for International Development now shuttered, that safety net may no longer be available.   The fertilizer crisis will cast a spotlight on the inefficiencies in the food system. About 20 percent of food designed for human consumption is wasted and never consumed. Almost 40 percent of cropland is used to grow animal feed at a huge efficiency cost: A cow requires 50 calories of feed to produce one calorie of beef. A third of U.S. corn is used to produce ethanol transport fuels for dubious environmental benefits.   Even if the Strait of Hormuz does open soon, restarting production and transport for fertilizers and their components could take weeks—weeks that Northern Hemisphere farmers do not have. Consumers around the world are already beginning to see higher prices for their gasoline and plane tickets. The more worrisome costs for the most vulnerable—those at the grocery store—are yet to come.   http://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/03/fertilizer-iran-hormuz-food-crisis Visit the related web page
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