IPCC is under pressure to delay key global climate report by Guardian News, High Ambition Coalition   13 Oct. 2026   IPCC is under pressure to delay publication of key global climate report, by Fiona Harvey for Guardian News   Scientists are coming under pressure from some petro-states and major developing countries to delay publication of a key global report on the climate, despite pleas from vulnerable countries worried that postponement could spell disaster for them.   The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN-convened body of the world’s leading climate scientists, is meeting this week in Addis Ababa to discuss its seventh assessment report, a comprehensive survey of all that is known about the climate crisis.   The report, known as AR7, was scheduled to appear in 2028 in time for deliberations at the UN climate summit, Cop33, late that year. Cop33 is scheduled to critique governments’ actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris agreement target of limiting temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.   But a group of countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia and including India and China, is pressing for publication of the report to be pushed back to 2029.   They argue this is necessary in order to allow developing countries to have more input into the scientific findings. Climate science has been dominated for three decades by countries and blocs including the EU, the UK and the US, though under Donald Trump’s presidency in the last of these it has has been severely curtailed.   Many poor and vulnerable countries – which are also among those contributing least to the science – strongly oppose any such delay.   Ministers from 34 members of the High Ambition Coalition, made up of some of the poorest countries and those most at risk from climate breakdown, as well as the EU and the Least Developed Countries grouping, called on Friday for publication of AR7 to be expedited.   Jess Gasper, a minister for the Marshall Islands, said: “We cannot allow political interests to determine which science the world is willing to hear.”   Jiwoh Emmanuel Abdulai, the minister of environment for Sierra Leone, added: “The Paris agreement can only deliver on its promise if the best available science continues to guide climate change negotiations.”   Global temperatures have already exceeded the threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, though the IPCC has previously suggested there is still a way to restore them. If current national emissions targets are met, global temperatures would exceed 1.8C. That is a very big “if”, as most countries do not have fully articulated plans for meeting the targets, meaning far higher temperatures are likely.   The global stocktake at Cop33 in 2028 is meant to provide a check on whether governments need to ramp up their efforts, and is crucial to the Paris agreement “ratchet” which demands stronger action.   AR7 is the latest in a series of comprehensive reports on climate science dating back to 1988 that have grown increasingly stark in their warnings of the impacts of pouring carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The last such assessment, published in three parts in 2021 and 2022, found that unless emissions were swiftly reduced the world would face unstoppable impacts that would swiftly become catastrophic and in some cases irreversible.   AR7 is expected to strike an even more urgent note, as greenhouse gases in the interim have continued to rise, and the impacts such as rising temperatures, heatwaves, floods and droughts are increasingly apparent.   This year has seen temperature records tumble and drought grip swathes of Europe and the US, while a gathering El Nino weather system, supercharged by the climate crisis, is forecast to bring extreme weather and rising food prices.   The IPCC is supposed to carry on its work free from government interference. However, key documents known as the “summary for policymakers”, published alongside the thousands of pages of the official reports, are subject to approval from all governments that wish to play a role.   The Guardian has previously uncovered evidence of involvement in the IPCC’s assessments of representatives of oil interests under control of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia.   Despite these flaws, the IPCC is the most authoritative global body on climate science, and many experts say delaying its input to the Cop talks would weaken the global response to the climate crisis at a time when adverse geopolitics already threaten progress on emissions.   The US is leading attacks on climate action, but far-right populist politicians across Europe also want to water down the EU’s regulations, and in Latin America a tide of rightwing populism, particularly in Brazil, Colombia and Argentina, threatens the same.   Within this context, waiting for developing countries to be able to contribute more science makes little sense, according to Claudio Angelo of the Observatorio do Clima in Brazil. “It’s extremely concerning the way the structural issue of equity is being weaponised by some big developing countries,” he said. “We can’t afford to leave Addis without a decision to press ahead with the 2028 timetable”.   http://www.highambitioncoalition.org/statements/hac-ipcc-statement Visit the related web page
	El Nino is back. Extreme heat, droughts and floods predicted by WMO, OCHA, ACAPS, agencies   Aug. 2026   UN Climate Chief: "The climate alarm is blaring, from every direction."   Statement issued by UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell on 28th July 2026, as spiraling climate-driven disasters put lives at risk and hammer economies around the world:   "The climate alarm is blaring, from every direction. Around the world, climate-driven disasters are reaching nightmare proportions, as the costs of humanity’s addiction to burning coal, oil and gas keep spiraling upwards.   These record-breaking wildfires tearing through France, Spain and other parts of Europe, forcing mass evacuations and hammering regional and national economies, follow brutal heatwaves that have dried out landscapes. With the mercury set to soar again this week, the awful costs of this climate crisis – both human and economic – are now reaching national emergency levels.   In North Africa, temperatures are approaching 49°C, putting lives and livelihoods in grave jeopardy, and putting hospitals and power systems under severe strain. In Chile, deadly storms have destroyed homes and lives. While in Japan, records are tumbling as temperatures soar, now reaching the longest 40°C heat streak ever recorded.   These spiraling disasters are now the lived reality for billions in a world getting rapidly hotter, as humanity moves too slowly from fossil fuels to clean energy and to protect forests.   The science on the cause is unequivocal: global heating, driven by humanity burning colossal amounts of coal, oil and gas, is making protracted heatwaves, severe floods and violent mega-storms more frequent, more intense and more costly.   What needs to be done is equally clear: leave coal, oil and gas behind faster, scale up renewables, and protect people where the impacts are already hitting hardest. Many vulnerable countries on the frontlines need support to move at the speed and scale this crisis demands.   http://unfccc.int/news/un-climate-chief-the-climate-alarm-is-blaring-from-every-direction http://unfccc.int/news/un-climate-chief-europe-s-savage-heatwave-has-the-fingerprints-of-the-climate-crisis-all-over-it http://wmo.int/media/news/earth-has-hottest-august-record http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2026/07/global-extreme-heat-as-rights-burn/   Aug. 2026   50 million more people in highly vulnerable communities globally are set to be pushed into acute hunger because of the strengthening El Nino weather pattern, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) reports.   “El Nino is a massive threat to the food security of millions who are already vulnerable,” said Carl Skau, WFP’s Acting Executive Director. “The sooner we help families to prepare for these climate shocks, the greater our ability to save lives and protect livelihoods.”   WFP noted that the 2015-2016 El Nino led to acute food insecurity of between 60 to 100 million people. Early projections indicate that the 2026-2027 El Nino could push at some 50 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year.   After analysing 45 countries already considered food insecure – and where El Nino will significantly influence rainfall patterns, temperatures, floods and droughts – the agency expects the total number of acutely food-insecure people in impacted countries to rise from 225 million to 274 million people, an increase of approximately 22 per cent.   WFP stressed the variety of El Niño’s impact: “Some countries are already experiencing below-average rainfall, flooding and unusually hot temperatures, while others are expected to face deteriorating conditions during upcoming planting seasons and harvests.”   East and Southern Africa face substantial risks, particularly where upcoming rainy seasons are critical for food production. More than 18 million people could see their food security deteriorate, representing a 26 per cent increase. Southern African countries are particularly exposed because many households depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture.   Latin America and the Caribbean could see one of the sharpest rises in food insecurity, with more than 16 million people affected. Central America is projected to have the largest proportional increase (83.1 per cent) of all areas analysed in the report.   Asia and the Pacific could see significant impacts in several already vulnerable countries with an estimated 8.2 million additional people facing acute food insecurity.   West and Central Africa are also at risk with food insecurity projected to increase by 12 per cent, affecting nearly six million additional people.   WFP and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have appealed for increased funding support to help at-risk communities prepare for El Nino to help protect lives, livelihoods and food security before emergencies escalate. Experiences from prior El Nino events have shown that $1 invested in anticipatory programs can save between $7 in avoided losses and response costs.   El Nino is expected to peak around December 2026, but the effects will be felt throughout 2027 in many countries, owing to impacts on future harvests. “Drought, flooding and extreme temperatures are already putting communities at risk,” WFP warned.   http://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-update-september-2026-inter-agency-report-global-enso-analysis-cell-el-nino-status-humanitarian-outlook http://impactlab.org/news-insights/more-than-451000-heat-deaths-projected-from-super-el-nino/ http://www.wfp.org/news/world-food-programme-ramps-preparedness-and-response-plans-el-nino-threatens-push-tens http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/unicef-fast-facts-over-347-million-children-nearly-100-countries-will-be-exposed-one http://wmo.int/media/news/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/sep/21/super-el-nino-temperature-record http://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/el-nino-threatens-more-two-thirds-children-eastern-and-southern-africa http://www.savethechildren.net/news/super-el-nino-threatens-push-8-million-children-acute-hunger-across-east-and-southern-africa http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/an-unprecedented-el-nio-and-its-implications-for-the-weather-forecast   July 2026   El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).   “El Nino conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event - as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.   “El Nino will give an extra boost to global temperatures,” said WMO scientist Alvaro Silva. “We know that during El Nino years, the global temperatures normally reach record levels.”   El Nino events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and twelve months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures during the year following their onset.   UN relief chief calls for early action as El Nino threatens vulnerable communities. (OCHA)   "El Nino is back. Extreme heat, droughts and floods are once again set to devastate communities across Latin America, Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific.   The last El Nino in 2023-24 left tens of millions of people in need of food, nutrition, water, sanitation, health, agricultural support and protection.   The forecasts are clear: this one looks even worse. It comes on top of widespread conflict, rising numbers of people on the move, and as soaring fuel, fertilizer and food prices are squeezing the most vulnerable families – while the humanitarian system reels from deep cuts.   We need early, flexible financing – more effective and less costly in the long run – to match the scale of the risk. We ask for the world to prioritize conflict resolution and support to communities forced to flee. And we urge braver climate action in place of the short term and selfish decisions that are pushing us relentlessly towards the 1.5°C warming cliff edge. The choice is clear: we can wait for disaster, or we can invest in resilience".   http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-forecast-intensify-increasing-likelihood-of-extreme-weather http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/press-releases http://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-02293-y http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/07/1167911   Global El-Nino overview: countries to watch. (ACAPS)   Strong El Nino conditions are expected to persist into early 2027, bringing widespread climate extremes that could intensify humanitarian needs across multiple regions. Drought, flooding, heatwaves, storms, disease outbreaks, and agricultural losses are likely to intersect with conflict, displacement, economic pressures, and rising global temperatures, creating cascading impacts for millions of people. Countries already facing fragile humanitarian conditions are expected to bear the greatest burden, underscoring the need for early preparedness and anticipatory action before these overlapping risks deepen existing crises: http://tinyurl.com/uym5z7rp   El Nino is putting millions of lives at risk in eastern and southern Africa. (UN News)   In eastern Africa, from Somali to Tanzania, it tends to mean too much rain. Flash floods, rivers bursting their banks, landslides, homes underwater, roads washed out, clinics and schools cut off.   In southern Africa, from Zambia to South Africa and from Namibia to Mozambique, it usually means the opposite; not enough rain which means crops failing, water sources drying up, and pastures disappearing.   Different weather, but the same outcome; the most vulnerable people lose the safety nets that keep them alive.   Esnart Chongani is a farmer in Zambia. She said the 2024 drought meant her family harvested no maize at all. “I cannot remember anything like this,” she said. People are so hungry. The generosity of our community has disappeared because everyone is struggling.”   Martha Kalumbi in Malawi, whose baby was hospitalised for malnutrition said a failed harvest left her family and everyone around her, with nothing.   “My child was always crying. Doctors told me she was starving and getting malnourished,” she said. “I was afraid that my baby might die. The situation was painful.”   And it's not just hunger. Floods contaminate water supplies, which fuels outbreaks of cholera and other waterborne disease. Standing water breeds mosquitoes, driving up malaria.   People lose homes and get displaced, sometimes for good. In Somalia, a mother of nine named Asha Mohamed was pushed from her home by the 2023 floods.   “Life became challenging after the floods,” she said. “My children fell sick, and I had no money to buy medicine or take them to a proper health facility.”   June 2026   El Nino set to fuel more extreme weather, says WMO   A new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) El Nino/La Nina Update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Nino event during June–August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. Although some uncertainty remains about El Nino peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be strong.   WMO El Nino/Updates are the world’s most authoritative source of information for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management.   They are based on a consensus from WMO Global Producing Centres, experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and climate prediction centres around the world and are produced through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).   Statement by Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization:   "This update matters because El Nino is a major driver of global weather and climate patterns. A warmer ocean adds heat and moisture to the climate system which can serve to worsen some climate extremes including heatwaves and heavy rainfall. The strong El Nino of 2023-2024 added a temporary warming effect on top of an already long-term warming trend. This contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record.   In some regions it is likely we will see heavy rainfall and floods; in others drought conditions; and in others, increased or reduced tropical cyclone activity. We can also expect an increased risk of extreme heat, with higher temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns adding further stress on human health, ecosystems, agriculture, and energy systems.   Extreme heat alone is already one of the deadliest climate hazards we face. An El Nino event will intensify this threat: more heat-related illness, wider spread of vector-borne diseases, increased pressure on food and water systems, and communities that were already struggling will be pushed further beyond their limits.   The footprint of an El Nino travels far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, impacting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods across entire regions".   Statement by Antonio Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General :   “The science is clear: El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed".   "The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.”   http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-prepare-el-nino http://wmo.int/content/launch-of-wmo-el-ninola-nina-bulletin-june-august-2026 http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/06/1167620 http://www.dw.com/en/is-africa-ready-for-el-nino-drought-floods/a-77826694   11 June 2026   El Nino under way and threatens weather extremes, scientists say. (agencies)   The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared that El Nino conditions are now under way in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures having risen sharply in recent months.   Many forecasts suggest this could end up as a so-called "super" El Nino, and even be among the strongest ever recorded.   Coming on top of decades of human-caused warming, it could bring another record-hot year - most likely in 2027 - with disruption to weather, food supplies and economies running well into that year.   According to NOAA's June outlook, "there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Nino during November-January, that would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950," the agency said.   The three strongest events since then have been in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16.   “El Nino affects weather patterns by bringing “a lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world”, said Abby Frazier, a Clark University climate scientist. “It can get dire very quickly”.   Some of the latest US and European (ECMWF) climate models go further, showing temperatures in the tropical Pacific potentially climbing more than 3C above average by the end of the year. The concern is that all this is happening on an already much hotter planet.   "We do need to worry about the impacts," said Prof Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office. "The current El Nino is… riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming. "This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented, as the warming from El Nino is being topped up by climate change."   "At the end of this year and into 2027, we're likely to see very high temperatures globally," Prof Scaife said. "In 2027, we're likely to see excess heat on top of the global warming we've already got, and that could easily lead to another year above 1.5 degrees [of warming above late-19th-Century levels]."   "An El Nino declaration is not just another weather forecast - for millions of people it is a deadly siren to be feared," said Mohamed Adow, director of campaign group Power Shift Africa.   "It means failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again. In East Africa especially, this will land on communities already battered by droughts and floods in recent years."   Experts warn the conditions may lead to shock in the global food supply with crops such as maize and rice especially vulnerable to El Nino and drought reducing food production in countries such as South Africa, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil.   http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/09/super-el-nino-global-economy http://reliefweb.int/report/world/inter-agency-report-global-enso-analysis-cell-el-nino-status-and-humanitarian-outlook http://www.fightfoodcrises.net/articles/wfp-and-fao-publish-analysis-potential-impacts-el-nino http://www.wfp.org/news/bracing-el-nino-fao-and-wfp-launch-joint-appeal-protect-88-million-people-extreme-weather http://350.org/press-release/350-org-responds-to-wmo-warning-on-developing-el-nino/   June 2026   Heat has killed 200,000 people in Europe in just four years. (UN News)   Extreme heat has claimed more than 200,000 lives across Europe over the past four years, according to the UN World Health Organization (WHO), which warned that heatwaves are becoming an increasingly frequent and deadly public health emergency driven by climate change.   “We need a coordinated, powerful and institutional response,” said WHO Regional Director Dr. Hans Kluge at the launch of the updated Heat–Health Action Plans Guidance in Berlin on Thursday.   The new guidance outlines evidence-based measures governments can take to reduce heat-related illness and deaths, including early warning systems, cooling centres, urban greening initiatives and targeted support for vulnerable populations. WHO stressed that individual actions such as staying hydrated and avoiding direct heat exposure remain important but are not sufficient to confront what it described as a growing systemic challenge.   Simon Stiell, the UN’s climate chief, said: “Climate change is running rampant, caused by the world’s addiction to burning coal, oil and gas. But the solutions are equally clear: a faster shift to clean energy – which is now much cheaper than fossil fuels – as well as protecting forests and building climate resilience.”   http://wmo.int/media/news/record-breaking-heat-spreads-through-europe http://wmo.int/media/news/western-europe-has-hottest-june-record http://www.who.int/europe/publications/i/item/9789289062930 http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(26)01593-X/fulltext http://www.savethechildren.net/news/two-thirds-children-western-europe-exposed-extreme-heatwaves-record-breaking-first-half-2026 http://www.worldweatherattribution.org/fossil-fuel-emissions-have-rapidly-worsened-european-heatwaves-in-just-a-few-decades/ http://climate.copernicus.eu/exceptionally-hot-and-dry-conditions-fuel-wildfires-europe-ocean-surface-temperatures-reach-record http://www.wri.org/insights/global-trends-forest-fires http://www.wri.org/insights/climate-fire-feedback-loop-explained   http://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/deforestation-lowers-threshold-for-amazon-degradation-to-below-2degc-warming http://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/earth2019s-heat-imbalance-reaches-record-high-as-human-caused-warming-hits-1-37degc http://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/planetary-health-check-2026-finds-mounting-pressures-across-earth2019s-life-support-systems http://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/ http://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/new-un-brief-highlights-governance-challenge-of-earth-system-tipping-points http://www.un.org/scientific-advisory-board/en/earth-system-tipping-points-0 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/sep/21/planetary-boundaries-breached-scientists-warn-climate-crisis
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