Sudan: The city of El Obeid faces catastrophe by UN News, OHCHR, WFP, UNICEF, agencies   6 July 2026   Atrocities in Sudan: when ‘never again’ becomes again, and again. (Guardian News)   This is not a drill. It is a red alert,” said the UN rights chief, Volker Turk, on Friday. He was warning that catastrophe was unfolding in the Sudanese city of El Obeid in north Kordofan with a population of over 500,000 people.   Near-siege conditions are tightening, relentless drone attacks continue and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allies are massing around it.   Two decades ago, after the genocide in Darfur, the world said “never again”. But it is happening again, and few are even paying attention.   The alarm was raised repeatedly last year as the starvation siege of El Fasher in north Darfur deepened. Tens of thousands of people were killed in the subsequent massacre, with one witness describing “a scene out of a horror movie”.   UN investigators reported “the hallmarks of genocide”, including explicit calls to eliminate non-Arab communities. Civilians who fled were raped and murdered; so were those who stayed. Before El Fasher came a killing spree in Geneina by RSF-allied forces.   After more than three years of war in Sudan, hundreds of thousands have been killed, 15 million have fled their homes and the conflict is spilling into neighbouring states.   Both sides have committed war crimes. The relentless ambition of Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who leads the Sudanese Armed Forces, and the RSF leader, Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, brooks no compromise. Yet the war of attrition might exhaust them were outside actors not fuelling the conflict – drawn by gold, gum arabic and potential geopolitical advantage.   Many states are pursuing their interests while Sudanese civilians suffer, but the UAE’s role is particularly critical. While it denies backing the RSF, rights groups and diplomats say it is their key supporter. The US and UK voice concern for Sudan, but have studiously ignored the role of the UAE, which has pledged to invest $1.4tn in the US. An Emirati royal has also put $500m into the Trump family’s cryptocurrency business.   A human rights investigator told British MPs last month that the UK had evidence linking Ethiopia and the Emirates to the RSF in 2024 – but that officials said they would not divulge it publicly following “significant” UAE pressure..   3 July 2026   UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk calls for strong action at the highest level to prevent atrocity crimes in Sudan:   The signs from El Obeid are clear and unmistakable: another human rights catastrophe is unfolding in Sudan, this time in the capital of the strategic state of North Kordofan.   Civilians have been subjected to siege-like conditions for 18 months, battered by relentless drone strikes as the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces battle for control over areas surrounding the city.   My Office documented 15 drone strikes on El Obeid and surrounding areas between 6 and 28 June, which killed at least 45 civilians and injured 41. The actual number of civilian casualties is likely higher.   Across the Kordofan region, drones launched by both sides have repeatedly struck markets, schools, fuel stations, water infrastructure, and civilian vehicles. In recent weeks, we documented damage to at least 13 fuel stations in El Obeid and Al Rahad from RSF drones.   These attacks, and fuel shortages, have a compound impact, making it difficult for civilians to access clean water, food, transport and healthcare, and to communicate with each other and the outside world.   Shortages of clean water are reaching a critical point in El Obeid. As the rainy season starts, this puts people at risk of waterborne diseases, including cholera. An influx of tens of thousands of people fleeing violence in other parts of Kordofan is straining resources even further.   People are selling their belongings to finance their escape from the city. For many, the exorbitant cost of transport, and constant attacks on vehicles along exit routes, make leaving impossible.   We have documented patterns of summary executions, abductions, torture and ill-treatment, sexual violence, and looting along the routes taken by displaced people across the Kordofan region.   Those who stay in El Obeid are also at risk of arbitrary arrest and detention. People who have fled areas controlled by the RSF and allied forces are frequently accused of collaboration. All this takes place against a backdrop of rising hate speech.   The international community cannot allow a repeat of the widespread atrocities that took place in Zamzam camp for displaced people, and in El Fasher in North Darfur last year.   My Office assessed that at least 6,000 people were killed in the span of just three days when the RSF captured El Fasher. We found the RSF and allied militia committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, including mass killings, summary executions, sexual violence, and torture.   These crimes were foreseen, with repeated warnings by myself and my Office. But they were not prevented.   This is not a drill. It is a red alert that needs to land on the desks of Heads of State and government around the world. Their phones should be running hot in the coming days and weeks, with ideas on how to prevent atrocity crimes in El Obeid and in other places in Kordofan, where the same strategies are being deployed.   Reports by my Office and others, call for strong action at the highest level. The UN Security Council needs to fulfil its responsibilities to prevent atrocity crimes. El Obeid is a classic case that shows why the use of the veto should be limited.   All leaders must use their influence to exert pressure on all parties, and particularly the RSF, to stop an offensive on El Obeid; to end strikes on civilians and essential infrastructure; to stop the flow of weapons; and to comply with their obligations under international law.   There also needs to be accountability for the crimes that have been committed. I welcome the continued engagement of the International Criminal Court on Sudan as a path to that end, in addition to efforts based on universal jurisdiction.   The safe and voluntary movement of civilians out of El Obeid must be guaranteed. We urgently need a humanitarian pause to allow for the unhindered delivery of food and humanitarian aid into the city and its surroundings.   We also need to pay far closer attention to the political economy of this war. The leaders of the warring parties bear the greatest responsibility for three years of appalling suffering. But behind them, domestic and foreign players are benefiting from the carnage.   We need to end the steady supply of weapons from outside the country to all sides, which continues with complete disregard for their use in contravention of international law. Without action to end this, the conflict risks continuing indefinitely. I repeat my call for the arms embargo on Darfur to be extended to the whole country.   I call for concerted efforts by the international community to assume its responsibilities to protect the people of Sudan, and support their efforts to build a peaceful, inclusive and democratic future.   http://www.ohchr.org/en/statements-and-speeches/2026/07/high-commissioner-turk-calls-strong-action-highest-level-prevent?sub-site=HRC http://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2026/07/sudan-mass-killings-abductions-and-gang-rape-carried-out-el-fasher http://www.hrw.org/news/2026/06/22/robust-global-action-is-key-to-curbing-sudan-atrocities http://raoulwallenbergcentre.org/en/news/2026-06-26 http://www.globaldispatches.org/p/sudan-is-on-the-brink-of-another http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2026/07/sudan-rsf-atrocities-in-el-fasher-a-stain-on-the-conscience-of-humanity-new-report/ http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/least-330-children-killed-or-injured-sudan-during-first-six-months-2026-conflict http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jul/06/the-guardian-view-on-atrocities-in-sudan-when-never-again-becomes-again-and-again http://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/11/opinion/sudan-atrocity-africa-rsf.html http://humanrightscommission.house.gov/news/press-releases/co-chairs-call-us-corporations-reassess-uae-partnerships-amid-sudan-atrocity   18 June 2026   UN Secretary-General, Rights chief warn of impending atrocities as RSF militia closes in on El Obeid, Sudan. (UN News, agencies)   The United Nations Secretary-General has expressed deep alarm at the escalation of fighting in and around El Obeid, North Kordofan state, including drone attacks impacting civilians and civilian infrastructure.   He is particularly alarmed by reports of the deployment, by the Rapid Support Forces, of substantial military reinforcements around El Obeid which may indicate an imminent ground offensive on the city, potentially placing yet another major population centre in Sudan at grave risk of large-scale violence. (El Obeid has a reported population of over 500,000 people)   The Secretary-General calls for restraint from all parties and urges them to take all necessary measures to respect and protect civilians. The Secretary-General urges all those with influence over the parties to exert it to prevent further bloodshed.   We must not allow the horrors of El Fasher to be repeated in El Obeid. The Secretary-General reiterates his call for an immediate cessation of hostilities.   The Secretary-General stresses that humanitarian workers and supplies must be able to move safely. Humanitarian operations must be protected and facilitated. El Obeid is a crucial hub for humanitarian response efforts across the broader Kordofan region.   Civilians who wish to leave must be allowed to do so safely. Those choosing to remain must be respected, protected and have access to the humanitarian relief they need.   The Secretary-General reminds all parties of their clear obligations under international humanitarian law and international human rights law, including to respect and protect civilians and civilian infrastructure, and to facilitate rapid, safe, unhindered and sustained humanitarian access.   UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk issued a stark warning that an imminent RSF offensive risked the fresh commission of serious international crimes and deepening the catastrophic impact on an already beleaguered civilian population.   El Obeid is the capital of North Kordofan state in Sudan, and its inhabitants have been strangled by siege-like conditions for more than 18 months.   “We have seen this playbook before. We know where it led then, and cannot now allow a repeat of the preventable atrocities we documented in El Fasher and Zamzam IDP camp in North Darfur last year. Civilians are at grave risk in Kordofan, particularly in El Obeid, in the absence of action to halt the imminent offensive and further military escalation,” the High Commissioner said.   “Let this be a stark warning to the world of an impending human rights disaster and worsening humanitarian situation. The States with influence have the duty to exercise it now to stop this madness in its tracks.”   Given the patterns of serious violations of international law documented by the UN Human Rights Office during RSF offensives on El Fasher and Zamzam IDP camp last year, the risk of summary executions, abduction, arbitrary detention and other violence against civilians is high, and must be prevented, the High Commissioner added.   The ever-increasing use of drones to conduct airstrikes is having a further devastating impact on civilians and civilian infrastructure in Kordofan. Over the past two weeks, there have been dozens of drone strikes on El Obeid, leading to loss of civilian lives. This has had a serious impact on civilian access to basic services.   The High Commissioner also urged parties to the conflict to ensure the safe movement of civilians who have been repeatedly forced to flee violence, and in search of basic services.   The RSF’s takeover of El Fasher in October 2025 was marked by widespread atrocities, including targeted ethnic violence, extrajudicial killings and executions. The UN Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan later concluded that the RSF committed crimes against humanity, war crimes and acts that may amount to genocide against non-Arab communities during its siege and subsequent takeover. Unconfirmed reports from December 2025 estimate that at least 60,000 people may have been killed since the RSF’s takeover.   http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/06/1167752 http://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statements/2026-06-18/statement-attributable-the-spokesperson-for-the-secretary-general-sudan http://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2026/06/sudan-imminent-offensive-el-obeid-must-be-halted-turk-warns-catastrophic http://www.globalr2p.org/publications/atrocity-alert-no-487/ http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/unicef-deputy-executive-director-hannan-suliemans-remarks-united-nations-security http://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-warns-assault-sudans-el-obeid-area-threatens-deepen-countrys-hunger-crisis-0 http://www.hrw.org/news/2026/06/26/sudan-urgently-address-the-situation-in-and-around-el-obeid-take-bold-steps-towards http://www.hrw.org/news/2026/06/22/robust-global-action-is-key-to-curbing-sudan-atrocities   15 May 2026   WFP/FAO/UNICEF: Risk of Famine persists as nearly 19.5 million people face acute food insecurity in Sudan   Conflict, displacement and restricted humanitarian access leave more than 825,000 children at risk of death from severe malnutrition in 2026   The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP) and UNICEF warned today that nearly 19.5 million people – two out of every five people in Sudan - are currently facing crisis levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) across Sudan, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis.   Although the latest IPC analysis did not identify areas currently experiencing Famine (IPC Phase 5), conditions remain extremely concerning. The analysis shows that nearly 135,000 people are facing Catastrophic food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) across 14 hotspots in Darfur, South Darfur, and South Kordofan are at risk of famine in the coming months.   More than five million people are classified under IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and a further 14 million people are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Conditions are expected to deteriorate further during the lean season between June and September.   As the civil conflict enters its fourth year, the protracted hunger crisis in Sudan shows little sign of abating as violence, displacement and severe humanitarian access constraints are impacting children, families and communities across the country.   Sudan is also facing a severe nutrition crisis. An estimated 825,000 children under five are expected to suffer from Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) in 2026, a seven percent increase compared to 2025 and 25 percent higher than pre-conflict levels recorded between 2021 and 2023. Between January and March this year alone, almost 100,000 children were admitted for treatment for severe acute malnutrition – which can lead to deaths if not treated urgently.   Um Baru and Kernoi localities recorded critical levels of malnutrition in December 2025. Acute malnutrition is expected to remain at extremely high levels in these localities with additional areas at risk of deteriorating, particularly in besieged areas and among internally displaced populations.   Conflict-driven displacement remains at extremely high levels, with close to nine million people uprooted within Sudan as of the end of March 2026. Many families remain trapped in active conflict zones or have sought refuge in remote areas with little or no access to humanitarian assistance or basic services.   The destruction of civilian infrastructure – including markets, health facilities, water systems, and agricultural assets – has severely constrained food production and access to essential services. Around 40 per cent of health facilities are non-functional, while an estimated 17 million people lack access to safe drinking water, and 24 million people lack access to adequate sanitation.   Repeated outbreaks of cholera, measles, malaria, dengue, hepatitis, diphtheria, and diarrheal diseases are further accelerating nutritional deterioration, especially among young children and pregnant and breastfeeding women.   Humanitarian access constraints remain among the most severe in the world. Insecurity, bureaucratic impediments, attacks along supply routes, destruction of markets and means of production as well as restrictions on the movement of people and goods continue to prevent humanitarian actors from delivering assistance at the scale required.   Only 20 percent of Sudan’s 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan had been funded as of April 2026. Humanitarian assistance remains critically inadequate compared to the scale of needs. Between February and May, humanitarian partners aimed to reach 4.8 million people per month. However, only an estimated 3.13 million people received assistance in February.   FAO, WFP, and UNICEF call for an immediate cessation of hostilities, for parties to the conflict to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure, and provide safe, rapid and unimpeded humanitarian access across conflict-affected areas.   The agencies also urge the international community to urgently scale up funding for food, emergency food production, nutrition, health, and water and sanitation services, as well as support for actions to rebuild livelihoods.   “To prevent further loss of life and starvation, we must urgently scale up emergency agricultural assistance to boost local food production,” said QU Dongyu, FAO Director-General. “Supporting vulnerable farming families with seeds, tools, and inputs is a highly effective way to restore access to nutritious food. Humanitarian access and funding for these life-saving agricultural interventions must improve immediately and at scale.”   “Famine continues to threaten the people of Sudan, as hunger and malnutrition are threatening millions of lives right now,” said WFP Acting Executive Director, Carl Skau. “WFP has been on the ground responding and is ready to do more, but humanitarian agencies cannot solve this alone. The international community must move now with funding, access and the political will to stop this crisis from becoming an even greater tragedy.”   “Across Sudan, children are trapped in a crisis of relentless violence, hunger and disease,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “Many families have been displaced multiple times. Children suffering from severe acute malnutrition arrive at overstretched facilities too weak to cry. Without urgent action and sustained humanitarian access, more children will die.”   http://www.wfp.org/news/joint-news-release-wfpfaounicef-risk-famine-persists-nearly-195-million-people-face-acute-food http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/risk-famine-persists-nearly-195-million-people-face-acute-food-insecurity-sudan   14 April 2026   Three years of war: Sudan's people abandoned and hungry. (World Food Programme)   On the eve of three years of devastating war, the Sudanese people are still being left to cope with intense fighting and widespread suffering. Conflict is killing and injuring countless civilians, and leaving millions without access to food, shelter or sanitation, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned today.   The international community has failed to prevent and end this conflict and to protect the Sudanese people from atrocities,” said Carl Skau, WFP’s Deputy Executive Director, who just returned from Darfur.   “The people I met in camps have been through hell. They have fled their homes leaving everything behind and now live in appalling conditions. They deserve so much better. We need to make sure they are not let down again and provide the basic support they need.”   More than 19 million people still face acute hunger in Sudan, and famine continues to haunt parts of the country as violence, displacement and economic collapse grind on. Communities have been cut off from food, markets, and aid, and children have been forced to miss three years of education, with their future hanging in the balance. Sudan remains the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with almost two‑thirds of the population now in urgent need of assistance to survive.   Sudan’s hunger crisis now risks being compounded by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Disruptions in the Red Sea are delaying critical imports, driving up the cost of food, fuel and fertilizer. Fuel prices in Sudan have increased by over 24 percent, driving up food prices and leaving millions unable to afford the most basic staples.   These same disruptions are also directly impacting humanitarian operations, with delayed shipments and higher transport costs. The combined impact could push families across the country deeper into food insecurity.   “The women I spoke to across Sudan told me they don’t have enough to feed their children and have no access to the most basic services,” warned Skau. “WFP and the humanitarian community have the experience and capacity to step up our support. But to do so, we need humanitarian aid to be allowed to move freely, safely and at scale – and we need far more funding.”   WFP is hyper‑prioritizing famine zones and hard‑to‑reach areas, reaching 3.5 million people each month with emergency food, cash and nutrition assistance. Two‑thirds of those WFP assists are in Darfur and Kordofan, where famine is confirmed and where fighting is heaviest. More than two million children under five and more than 500,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls benefited from nutrition assistance last year.   WFP is also sustaining livelihoods and local food systems: During the last harvest season, WFP-supported farmers produced nearly one fifth of the country’s wheat, strengthening the local economy and reducing food insecurity.   “We need to continue investing in the future of the Sudanese people,” said Skau. “We can help communities rebuild their lives by expanding our support for farmers to grow their own food again and by providing school meals to help enable children to return to school. But we need the funding to do it.”   WFP food assistance has dropped by 14 percent since January, as compared to last year, due to a lack of resources; the agency urgently requires more than USD 600 million to sustain life-saving operations in Sudan for the next six months.   Sudan: A crisis the world cannot ignore, by Denise Brown, UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Sudan:   Sudan is the size of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain combined. It’s hard to miss. But the world seems to be able to look right past it as if it’s not there.   April 15th marks the third year of the war in Sudan; more than 9 million people have had to flee their homes within the country, living in temporary shelters, some so ragged they blow away with the haboob (dust storm) that arrives every year at this time.   Another 4.5 million have fled across borders into neighbouring countries, seeking one thing: to live without fear. More than 18 million people remaining in the country need support to make it through the day: food, healthcare, shelter, water. Pretty basic stuff that we all need to get by.   Sexual violence has its own special place within this brutal war. Women and girls, raped and gang-raped, particularly in Darfur. Sexual violence is being used as a weapon of war, with long-term consequences for individuals and communities.   Drone strikes are increasing, hitting civilian infrastructure, many related to the health services that are so desperately needed, and killing the civilians who use them. In El Obeid, North Kordofan State, the strikes go on all night long, one explosion after another.   Yet the people who fled the war in Khartoum three years ago are returning despite the remaining challenges.   "Homes can be taken from us, but what we hold in our memories and our hearts about home cannot be taken. And so, people return despite the remaining challenges. Home is where we all want to be".   The international aid community is here, but the Sudanese communities and organizations are the day-to-day frontline workers and the ones killed in the line of duty. Helping those who have had to flee their homes or those who want to go back.   "So far in 2026, the humanitarian response is only 16 per cent funded. That money just won’t stretch to cover the needs. People are dying here and suffering here and yet are determined to make it. They desperately need our support".   http://www.wfp.org/news/three-years-war-sudans-people-abandoned-and-hungry http://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-palais-briefing-sudan-three-years-war-sudan-three-years-too-many http://www.unicef.org/child-alert/children-under-threat-darfur http://www.unocha.org/news/un-relief-chief-three-years-sudan-remains-test-world-failing http://www.unhcr.org/news/briefing-notes/three-years-war-weary-sudanese-remain-move http://www.unocha.org/news/sudan-three-years-crisis-world-cannot-ignore http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/04/1167301   http://www.nrc.no/news/2026/what-it-takes-to-eat-new-report-reveals-how-war-is-cutting-off-access-to-food-as-hunger-deepens-in-sudan http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/latest/three-years-war-have-shattered-sudans-lifelines http://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/three-years-agony-sudans-children-trapped-and-carry-deepest-scars http://www.hrw.org/news/2026/04/07/sudan-the-eu-must-act-for-sudans-civilians-at-three-years-of-conflict http://www.globalr2p.org/publications/ngo-statement-on-the-international-coalition-to-prevent-further-atrocities-in-sudan/ http://www.hrw.org/news/2026/03/11/new-sudan-atrocity-prevention-coalition-needs-to-act-fast http://www.globalr2p.org/publications/atrocity-alert-no-471/ http://unocha.exposure.co/darfurs-survivors http://humanitarianaction.info/plan/1514 http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/04/1167293 http://news.un.org/en/tags/sudan   24 Mar. 2026   The Sudan INGO Forum is appalled by the latest drone attack on Ed Dain Teaching Hospital in East Darfur, which killed at least 64 people, including 13 children, female nurses, doctors and multiple patients, and injured nearly 90 others.   This attack rendered the hospital completely non-functional, destroying essential departments including the emergency room, pediatric ward, surgery service and a stabilisation centre that was treating children with acute malnutrition and related medical complications. It was the only functioning public medical facility in Ed Dain and its destruction is cutting off lifesaving services for hundreds of thousands of civilians.   This is yet another grave violation of international humanitarian law, within a series of deadly escalations of drone attacks in recent weeks and months. Health facilities and health workers must never be targeted.   Sudan’s health system is already under extraordinary pressure. After nearly three years of war, up to 80% of health facilities in conflict-affected states have shut down, while those still operational face severe shortages of staff, medicine and essential supplies. Repeated attacks on healthcare facilities, over 200 attacks were verified by WHO between April 2023 and December 2025, have killed close to 2,000 people and injured hundreds more, the vast majority of them within the last year only.   At the same time, humanitarian funding is rapidly shrinking. According to interagency analysis, the imminent closure of legacy US-funded programs will result in the shutdown of at least 344 health facilities across 13 states, affecting an estimated 876,247 people every month. In East Darfur specifically, this loss of funding is expected to lead to the suspension of mobile clinics, primary healthcare services, and referral systems that communities depend on.   The destruction of a central facility such as Ed Dain Teaching Hospital, combined with the withdrawal of humanitarian health programming, risks creating a near-total collapse of healthcare access in the region.   The Sudan INGO Forum reiterates its urgent call on all parties to the conflict to:   Fulfil their obligations under international humanitarian law and immediately cease attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and health facilities. Respect and protect medical personnel, facilities, and transport at all times. Adopt and enforce a clear no-strike policy on critical civilian infrastructure. Ensure safe, rapid, and unhindered humanitarian access to all populations in need.   We further call on the international community to:   Strongly condemn this attack and all violations of international humanitarian law. Take urgent diplomatic action to ensure the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure in Sudan. Immediately increase and frontload humanitarian funding to mitigate the severe gaps created by program closures and sustain life-saving services, particularly in conflict-affected states.   The continued targeting of healthcare facilities, combined with the erosion of humanitarian service capacity, represents a devastating convergence that will cost countless lives unless immediate action is taken.   * The Sudan INGO Forum is the coordination and representation body for the international non-governmental organization (INGO) community in Sudan.   http://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/sudan-drone-strike-ed-dain-teaching-hospital-represents-grave-escalation-attacks-healthcare-amid-increased-strain-health-system http://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/sudan-deadly-escalation-drone-strikes-civilian-areas-must-end http://www.nrc.no/news/2026/sudan-war-refugees-pushed-into-hunger-as-livelihoods-collapse-across-the-region   10 Mar. 2026   Satellite images show Rapid Support Forces using ‘starvation strategy’ in Sudan. (Yale Humanitarian Research Lab, agencies)   Targeted attacks on farming communities by the Rapid Support Forces were intended to prevent villages producing food.   There is strong evidence that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) committed a war crime by depriving the villagers of north Darfur of the means to produce food, legal experts argue in a new analysis published today calling for the Humanitarian Research Lab’s (HRL) revelations to be used in international courts.   The destruction of the villages, farming equipment and infrastructure all provide strong evidence of a “starvation strategy” against a population already struggling with food insecurity because of the war, says Tom Dannenbaum, a professor at Stanford Law School and a leading expert on the use of starvation in war.   “People were at the brink of starvation and objects indispensable to their survival were being destroyed,” says Dannenbaum, who co-authored the analysis alongside Yale Law School professor Oona Hathaway.   He says it was not merely the fact the villages had been attacked but the targeted destruction of livestock enclosures, as well as the forced displacement of the farmers, that led to reduced farming activity that suggested a deliberate attempt to prevent the villages from being able to produce food.   Dannenbaum and Hathaway believe the HRL research is a breakthrough in attempts to prove how a starvation strategy was imposed because of the way it uses remote sensing technologies. They also think there is potential for the same techniques to be used to investigate war crimes in places such as Gaza and Ethiopia.   “It’s evidence of extraordinary cruelty and the real horrors people have been facing,” says Hathaway. “The report provides a unique level of fine-grained, over-time analysis documenting exactly what was attacked, going far beyond our general knowledge of the fighting … [it] is of a quality that could be submitted in a court for criminal prosecution.”   The international criminal court has been investigating genocide in Darfur since the 2000s, and has issued calls for evidence related to recent violence including the takeover of El Geneina in West Darfur in June 2023, when RSF fighters imposed a months-long siege that killed tens of thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands more people from the Masalit community.   The UN human rights council has also been documenting rights violations throughout the war and last month published a report saying the RSF’s attack on El Fasher last year bore the “hallmarks of genocide”, including a siege that imposed conditions designed to destroy non-Arab communities including the Zaghawa and Fur.   There have also been investigations into the “genocidal attack” on Zamzam in April 2025, which at the time was Sudan’s largest displacement camp, hosting about 700,000 people just south of El Fasher.   HRL’s researchers used sensors that can remotely detect the presence of fires, together with satellite imagery to monitor the locations of the attacks on these 41 villages, where it found there was a 2040% increase in fires during the period studied.   A quarter of the villages were attacked more than once, and after being attacked 68% of them show no signs of normal life. The researchers found that vehicles consistent with those used by the RSF could be identified near the scenes of the violence.   The attacks on villages began just months before the siege of El Fasher. HRL researchers believe this was part of a plan to cut the city off from the areas that fed it.   “They ripped out the breadbasket of El-Fasher as an intentional strategy to starve the city,” says Nathaniel Raymond, HRL’s executive director.   During the subsequent 18-month siege of El Fasher the RSF prevented food, water and medicine from entering the city, and constructed an earthen berm at least 19 miles long to physically prevent civilians from leaving.   Throughout the war the RSF have imposed long sieges on cities with large non-Arab communities such as El Geneina and El Fasher, before militarily taking them over.   The RSF now controls all of Darfur’s main cities but its use of siege tactics has continued in its fighting against the Sudanese army elsewhere, which has most recently been focused on the neighbouring Kordofan region.   Like Darfur, Kordofan is resource-rich with supplies of gold, oil and gum arabic, a key ingredient in cosmetics and soft drinks – Sudan provides 80% of the world’s supply. It is also the location of Kadugli, a city which alongside El Fasher, has been declared as suffering famine and where the price of staple foods such as sorghum are 1,000% higher than before the war.   In February, the Sudanese army announced that it had broken a siege on Kadugli that prevented aid trucks from arriving, but violence has continued and concerns remain that the RSF will try to reimpose siege conditions. On 20 February, a convoy of aid trucks that had waited weeks to reach the city was hit by a drone strike, killing four people.   Hunger is also growing in eastern Sudan’s Blue Nile state where farmers have not been able to access their land because of RSF attacks, leaving crops unharvested according to campaign group Avaaz, which reported that the price of flour rose 43% in January.   Raymond says that HRL’s work is evidence that the RSF is using hunger as a means of war and that unless they are investigated and held accountable, there is a threat of the same fate facing other communities.   “This report is quantitative proof of RSF’s intent, which is to prevent those they perceive as enemies from being able to feed themselves,” says Raymond. “What this means for Sudan is clear: what happened here can happen again.”   http://www.justsecurity.org/131508/report-new-evidence-starvation-darfur/ http://medicine.yale.edu/lab/khoshnood/news/ http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/ng-interactive/2026/mar/10/extraordinary-cruelty-images-show-longterm-starvation-strategy-in-sudan   Feb. 2026   Child malnutrition hits catastrophic levels in parts of Sudan. (UN News, IPC)   Acute malnutrition among children has reached catastrophic levels in parts of Sudan’s North Darfur and Greater Kordofan, UN-backed analysts warned on Thursday, as conflict, mass displacement and denials of aid push the country deeper into a famine-risk emergency.   According to an alert from the IPC, a global food security monitoring system, thresholds for acute malnutrition were surpassed in two new areas of North Darfur – Um Baru and Kernoi – following the fall of the regional capital, El Fasher, in October 2025 and a massive exodus.   December assessments found acute malnutrition levels among children of 52.9 per cent in Um Baru – nearly twice the famine threshold – and about 34 per cent in Kernoi. The IPC warned that conditions are deteriorating rapidly – and action is urgently needed.   “These alarming rates suggest an increased risk of excess mortality,” the experts said, adding that many other conflict-affected or inaccessible areas may be facing similarly catastrophic conditions.   Um Baru and Kernoi are in areas of northwestern North Darfur, near key displacement corridors leading toward the Chadian border. Both areas received large numbers of civilians fleeing fighting in and around El Fasher, where widespread atrocities occured.   Sudan’s war, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has devastated food systems nationwide, triggering mass displacement and repeated disruptions to health, water and nutrition services.   The IPC alert draws urgent attention to the worsening conditions. It builds on earlier IPC analyses that confirmed famine (IPC Phase 5) in El Fasher, North Darfur in 2024, and Kadugli, South Kordofan, in September 2025 – and projected famine risk in at least 20 other areas across greater Darfur and greater Kordofan.   The new findings indicate that famine-like conditions are likely spreading beyond previously assessed locations, driven by continued fighting, displacement and the collapse of food, health and water systems, IPC analysts said.   Across the country, over 4.2 million cases of acute malnutrition are expected in 2026, including more than 800,000 cases of severe acute malnutrition, representing a sharp increase from 2025 levels, according to IPC analysis.   The IPC also warned of rapidly deteriorating conditions across Greater Kordofan, where famine was already confirmed in Kadugli and severe conditions were projected in Dilling and the Western Nuba Mountains. Without an immediate end to the fighting and large-scale humanitarian access, IPC experts said preventable deaths are likely to rise.   http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/countries-in-focus-archive/issue-143/en/ http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/02/1166931 http://news.un.org/en/tags/sudan http://www.unicef.org/sudan/stories/generational-crisis-looms-sudan http://www.savethechildren.net/news/children-dying-because-hunger-famine-risks-detected-two-new-locations-sudan http://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/sudan-key-message-update-risk-famine-ipc-phase-5-persists-south-kordofan-and-north-darfur-march-september-2026   Feb. 2026   Sudan: Countdown to catastrophe in Kordofan, as world once again looks away. (NRC)   South Kordofan is now the epicentre of the war in Sudan, which has caused the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. Civilians in this part of southern Sudan face intensified fighting and near-total blockage of humanitarian supplies, after a year of starvation and bombardment, the Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) Jan Egeland warned today.   At the end of his visit to South Kordofan, Egeland said he saw that the world was once again failing civilians in Sudan, with the clock ticking on further widespread atrocities.   “South Kordofan has become Sudan’s most dangerous and neglected frontline,” said Egeland. “After the horrors in El Fasher, Darfur, we cannot allow another civilian catastrophe to unfold on our watch. Entire cities are being starved, forcing families to flee with nothing. Civilians here have told me they are bombed and attacked where they live, pray, and learn. This is a man-made disaster, and it is accelerating towards a nightmare scenario.”   In Kadugli and Dilling, the main towns in South Kordofan, essential supply routes have been cut, leading markets to completely collapse. Trapped civilians are left with little or no access to food, cash, or basic services. Famine is taking hold in Kadugli, with Dilling at high risk of the same.   Thousands of people are now fleeing Kordofan in desperate journeys, having to navigate across frontlines, heading toward the Nuba Mountains – a region long isolated and impoverished, and now facing renewed violence. Others are fleeing to White Nile, Gedaref, and South Sudan. Journeys take days or weeks and are marked by hunger, theft, intimidation, and abuse.   Upon reaching the relative safety of displacement camps, families sleep on the bare ground or in overcrowded shelters. Aid groups like NRC are few, over-stretched, and under-funded. Essential items are critically scarce. Children are traumatised, malnourished, and out of school.   Egeland warned that the humanitarian response is nowhere near the scale required, as international agencies remain largely absent and access constraints continue to block aid delivery.   “With most international organisations’ operations scaled back, Sudanese local responders are holding the line under extreme pressure,” said Egeland. “They are running communal kitchens, evacuating families, and delivering aid under fire. They are doing everything possible, but we must do more to help them.”   “This is a critical moment,” said Egeland. “We know exactly where this leads if the world looks away again. History will judge us if we abandon the civilians of Sudan again to face endless violence and deprivation.”   NRC is appealing to the parties to the conflict for immediate humanitarian access and protection of civilians. It is calling for urgent funding for life-saving aid, and effective international engagement to prevent further suffering.   http://www.nrc.no/news/2026/sudan-countdown-to-catastrophe-in-kordofan-as-world-once-again-looks-away http://www.ohchr.org/en/statements-and-speeches/2026/02/high-commissioner-turk-calls-states-do-more-end-senseless-war-sudan http://www.msf.org/sudan-msf-treats-around-170-people-drone-injuries-two-weeks http://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/12/un-human-rights-chief-warns-against-atrocities-sudans-kordofan-region http://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/statement-operational-humanitarian-country-team-sudan-violence-kordofan-region   19 Jan. 2026   Atrocities in Sudan’s Darfur region are spreading from town to town in an organized campaign of violence that includes mass executions, rape and ethnic targeting, amounting to war crimes and crimes against humanity, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court told the UN Security Council on Monday.   Briefing ambassadors, ICC Deputy Prosecutor Nazhat Shameem Khan said the situation in Darfur had “darkened even further,” with civilians subjected to what she described as collective torture amid a widening war between Sudan’s rival military forces.   “The picture that is emerging is appalling: organised, widespread, mass criminality including mass executions,” Ms. Khan said. “Atrocities are used as a tool to assert control.”   Sudan has been engulfed in conflict since April 2023, when fighting erupted between former allies the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces militia (RSF).   What began as a power struggle metastasised into conflicts across the country, most devastating in the Darfur region, which also saw longstanding ethnic tensions – which prompted allegations of genocide in the early 2000s – being reignited.   She said the fall of North Darfur’s regional capital El Fasher to the RSF had been followed by a “calculated campaign of the most profound suffering,” particularly targeting non-Arab communities.   The crimes, she said, include rape, arbitrary detention, executions and the creation of mass graves, often filmed and celebrated by perpetrators.   Based on video, audio and satellite evidence collected, the ICC Prosecutor has concluded that war crimes and crimes against humanity were committed in El Fasher, particularly in late October, following a prolonged RSF siege of the city.   Ms. Khan said video footage showed patterns similar to those documented in earlier atrocities in Darfur, including the detention, mistreatment and killing of civilians from non-Arab tribes.   “Members of the RSF are seen celebrating direct executions and subsequently desecrating corpses,” she said.   The Office of the Prosecutor is also advancing investigations into crimes committed in El Geneina, where witnesses have provided accounts of attacks on displacement camps, looting, gender-based violence and crimes against children.   In 2023, El Geneina witnessed some of the worst violence of the war as RSF fighters and allied militias carried out massacres against the Massalit community, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee into neighbouring Chad.   UN officials and human rights investigators described the violence as ethnically motivated and warned of possible crimes against humanity.   Evidence now indicates that the patterns of atrocities seen in El Geneina have since been replicated in El Fasher, Ms. Khan said.   “This criminality is being repeated in town after town in Darfur,” she warned. “It will continue until this conflict, and the sense of impunity that fuels it, are stopped.”   Sexual violence, including rape, is being used as a weapon of war, Ms. Khan said, adding that gender-based crimes remain a priority for ICC investigations. She acknowledged cultural and security barriers that prevent survivors from reporting abuse, stressing the need for gender-sensitive and survivor-centred investigations.   While much of the briefing focused on RSF abuses, the Deputy Prosecutor said the ICC was also documenting allegations of crimes committed by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), underscoring that all parties to the conflict are bound by international law to protect civilians.   http://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-office-prosecutor-situation-el-fasher-north-darfur http://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75veyzz2g2o http://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/24/opinion/sudan-genocide.html http://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2026/02/sudan-evidence-el-fasher-reveals-genocidal-campaign-targeting-non-arab http://www.ohchr.org/en/statements-and-speeches/2026/02/high-commissioner-turk-calls-states-do-more-end-senseless-war-sudan http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/02/1167003 http://www.unocha.org/news/ocha-urges-security-council-protect-civilians-and-aid-workers-sudan http://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/12/sudan-must-address-ethnic-violence-and-prevent-further-escalation-un http://www.ohchr.org/en/meeting-summaries/2025/11/human-rights-council-calls-urgent-inquiry-recent-alleged-violations http://www.hrw.org/news/2026/01/26/iccs-work-vital-for-justice-in-darfur   Jan. 2026   1,000 days of war has devastating impact on the children of Sudan. (UNICEF)   “Since fighting erupted in April 2023, Sudan has become one of the largest and most devastating humanitarian crises in the world, pushing millions of children to the brink of survival.   A profound protection crisis with widespread violations of international law by parties to the conflict, exacerbated by a lack of humanitarian access, has deepened with each of the 1,000 days of agony that have passed.   "In 2026, 33.7 million people, about two-thirds of the population, are expected to need urgent humanitarian assistance. Half of them are children. Affected populations’ access to lifesaving aid remains dangerously constrained across large parts of the country, intensifying the humanitarian crisis.   “Children continue to be killed and injured – just this week, 8 children were killed in an attack in Al Obeid in North Kordofan.   “More than 5 million children have been forced from their homes – the equivalent of 5,000 children displaced every day - many of them repeatedly, with attacks and violence often following them as they move. Millions of children in Sudan are at risk of rape and other forms of sexual violence, which is being used as a tactic of war, with children as young as one reported among survivors.   "An estimated 21 million people are expected to face acute food insecurity in 2026. Famine has already been confirmed in Al Fasher and Kadugli, with an additional 20 areas across Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan at risk.   In North Darfur, the epicentre of Sudan’s malnutrition emergency, nearly 85,000 children with severe acute malnutrition were treated between January and November 2025, equivalent to one child every six minutes.   The collapse of health systems, critical water shortages and the breakdown of basic services are compounding the crisis, fuelling deadly disease outbreaks and placing an estimated 3.4 million children under five at risk.   “Behind these numbers are lives marked by fear, hunger and loss, as the conflict continues to rob children of safety, health and hope.   “Despite these extraordinary insecurity and access constraints, life-saving assistance continues to reach children wherever possible.   UNICEF and partners are delivering support to treat severe malnutrition, vaccinate against deadly diseases, provide safe drinking water, and offer protection and care to children affected by violence and displacement as funding permits.   “These efforts are keeping children alive under the most difficult conditions, but they remain far from sufficient in the absence of sustained access, adequate funding and a meaningful reduction in hostilities. Humanitarian action can save lives, but it cannot replace the protection that only peace can provide.   “UNICEF is urgently calling for an immediate end to the conflict. All parties must uphold their obligations under international humanitarian law: protect civilians, stop attacks on infrastructure, and allow safe, sustained and unimpeded humanitarian access across Sudan.   “Children in Sudan are not statistics. They are frightened, displaced and hungry, but they are also determined, resourceful and resilient. Every day, they strive to learn, to play, to hope, even as they wait for the world to act. Ending this conflict is a moral necessity. It cannot wait.”   http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/children-sudan-have-endured-1000-days-agony http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/nutrition-survey-finds-unprecedented-level-child-malnutrition-part-sudans-north http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/unicef-executive-director-warns-deepening-protection-crisis-sudan-violence-and http://www.wfp.org/news/families-sudan-pushed-brink-amidst-brutal-conflict-and-famine-wfp-resources-dry   Jan. 2026   Sudan: Two-thirds of people need aid as conflict reaches 1,000th day. (OCHA)   Today marks 1,000 days since the start of the war in Sudan, with civilians continuing to bear the brunt of a conflict they did not choose. Nearly 34 million people – or some two-thirds of the population – now need humanitarian assistance, making this the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.   It is also the largest displacement crisis, with 9.3 million people displaced inside the country and more than 4.3 million refugees in neighbouring states.   Food security conditions are catastrophic. Famine has been confirmed in El Fasher in North Darfur and in Kadugli in South Kordofan, with at least 20 other areas at risk. More than 21 million people are estimated to be acutely food insecure nationwide. Sieges in Kordofan have cut off Kadugli and Dilling, limiting access to food, markets and farmland.   The health system is close to collapse. Fewer than half of health facilities are fully functional, with even lower coverage in areas of active fighting. Cholera has been reported in all 18 states, with more than 72,000 suspected cases recorded last year.   Nearly 12 million people, mostly women and girls, are at risk of gender-based violence. Households headed by women are three times more likely to be food insecure, and three-quarters report not having enough to eat.   OCHA also reports continued fighting in Darfur, drone attacks and long-range strikes on civilian infrastructure.   Despite the mounting challenges, humanitarian partners reached millions of people in 2025, with local and women-led organizations often serving as the first or only responders in high-risk areas. However, access remains dangerous and politically constrained, and more than 125 aid workers have been killed since April 2023.   OCHA calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities, respect for international humanitarian law, safe access for aid, protection of civilians and aid workers, and renewed funding, especially for local and women-led partners.   http://humanitarianaction.info/document/global-humanitarian-overview-2026/article/sudan-4 http://humanitarianaction.info/plan/1514 http://www.unocha.org/news/todays-top-news-sudan-ukraine-occupied-palestinian-territory http://news.un.org/en/audio/2026/01/1166795 http://www.ohchr.org/en/statements-and-speeches/2026/01/visiting-turk-salutes-sudanese-peoples-struggle-peace-calls http://www.wfp.org/news/families-sudan-pushed-brink-amidst-brutal-conflict-and-famine-wfp-resources-dry http://news.un.org/en/focus-topic/sudan-conflict-2023
	The world’s nuclear arsenals are being expanded and upgraded by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute   June 2026   The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has launches its annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament and international security. Key findings of SIPRI Yearbook 2026 are that states are increasingly relying on nuclear weapons as instruments of national power—reversing decades of efforts to reduce the numbers and role of nuclear weapons—even as the risks of miscalculation and escalation are rising.   World’s nuclear arsenals expanded and upgraded   The nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and Israel—continued programmes to modernize and enhance their nuclear arsenals in 2025, and most deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems during the year.   Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,187 warheads in January 2026, about 9745 were in military stockpiles for potential use. An estimated 4012 of those warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft and the rest were in central storage. Between 2100 and 2200 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles.   Nearly all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the USA, and to a lesser extent France and the UK, but China and India may now occasionally deploy a small number of warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime.   ‘Influential voices, including some world leaders, are advocating nuclear weapons as a guarantee against attack by a hostile state. But making national defence and security strategies dependent—or more dependent—on nuclear weapons could significantly increase nuclear risks,’ said SIPRI Director Karim Haggag.   ‘The dangers associated with nuclear weapons are growing due to advances in weapon technology, the breakdown of nuclear arms control and heightened geopolitical tensions, among a range of other factors. At the same time, world events—not least the outbreak of conflict between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan—are challenging nuclear deterrence logic.’   Since the end of the cold war, the gradual dismantlement of retired warheads by Russia and the USA has normally outstripped the deployment of new warheads, resulting in an overall year-on-year decrease in the global inventory of nuclear weapons. This trend is likely to be reversed in the coming years, as the pace of dismantlement is slowing, while the deployment of new nuclear weapons is accelerating.   ‘The evidence is growing that the nuclear weapon states are sidelining, and even walking away from, their disarmament commitments and are instead flexing their nuclear muscles,’ said Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). ‘By reaching for nuclear solutions, states are creating new risks and fuelling arms-race dynamics.’   Russia and the USA together possess around 83 per cent of all stockpiled nuclear warheads (i.e. useable warheads). This combined share is shrinking somewhat due to the growth in the world’s other nuclear arsenals. The sizes of the Russian and US military stockpiles appear to have stayed relatively stable in 2025 but both states’ extensive modernization programmes seem likely to increase the size and diversity of their arsenals in the future.   The USA’s comprehensive nuclear modernization programme is progressing but in 2025 faced continued planning and funding challenges that are likely to further delay and significantly increase the cost of the programme.   Moreover, the effort to add new non-strategic nuclear weapons to the US arsenal will place further budgetary and logistical stress on the modernization programme, a trend that will deepen further as a result of the Trump administration’s plans for the Golden Dome missile-defence system, which it is estimated will cost $1.2 trillion.   Russia’s nuclear modernization programme is also facing challenges. In 2025 another test launch of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) being developed by Russia failed, while Western economic sanctions and competing demands linked to the war in Ukraine seem to have affected the programme. Another troubled programme, the new Burevestnik nuclear-powered ground-launched cruise missile, was claimed to have achieved a successful flight test in 2025 to a distance of over 14 000 kilometres, after several failures.   Russia has also started building a forward-operating base for its dual-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) in Belarus, and Oreshnik missiles have been used against Ukraine with conventional warheads, most recently in May 2026. The significant increase in Russia’s non-strategic nuclear warheads predicted by the USA in 2020 has still not materialized.   Both Russian and US deployments are likely to rise in the years ahead. The Russian increase would mainly happen as a result of modernizing the country’s remaining strategic forces to carry more warheads on each missile. The US increase could happen as a result of more warheads being deployed to existing launchers, empty launchers being reactivated and new non-strategic nuclear weapons being added to the arsenal. Nuclear advocates in the USA are pushing for these steps as a reaction to China’s new nuclear deployments.   Furthermore, with the expiry of the bilateral 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) in February this year, uncertainty is increasing about the future direction of US and Russian strategic nuclear force levels.   SIPRI estimates that China now has around 620 nuclear warheads. China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country and showcased several new nuclear systems during its 2025 military parade. By January 2026, China had loaded hundreds of missiles into three large missile silo fields in the north of the country, while working to complete 30 silos in three mountainous areas in the east.   Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or the USA by the turn of the decade. Yet even if China surpasses 1000 warheads by 2030, that will still amount to only about one quarter of each of the current Russian and US nuclear stockpiles.   Although the UK is not thought to have increased its nuclear weapon arsenal in 2025, its operational warhead stockpile is expected to grow in the future, after the 2021 Integrated Review announced the UK’s intention to raise the ceiling on warhead numbers. The 2025 Strategic Defence Review reiterated the UK’s 2021 policy change of no longer publicizing the size of its nuclear arsenal, reducing transparency concerning the UK’s arsenal.   Also in 2025 the UK announced its intention to buy 12 nuclear-capable F-35A combat aircraft from the USA, and equip them with US nuclear bombs, in order to join NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements. The plan walks back the decision from the 1990s to denuclearize the Royal Air Force.   In 2025 France continued to upgrade its nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) force, introducing its enhanced M51.3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and pressing ahead with development of a third-generation SSBN. The government also announced plans to establish a new nuclear airbase in eastern France for two new nuclear-capable Rafale aircraft squadrons equipped with France’s next-generation hypersonic nuclear air-launched cruise missile.   In March 2026 President Emmanuel Macron announced that he had ordered an increase in the number of warheads in the French nuclear arsenal and that the government would no longer publicly communicate the size of its arsenal.   India is believed to have once again slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2025 and continued development of new types of nuclear delivery systems. The modernization programme is increasingly focused on developing long-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China, although planning also continues to be focused on India’s long-standing rivalry with Pakistan.   Pakistan continued to develop new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material in 2025, suggesting that its nuclear arsenal might expand over the coming decade. The brief armed conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025 saw India attacking Pakistani air- and missile bases that are likely to have nuclear-related roles, but both sides took steps to avoid escalation.   North Korea continues to develop its nuclear capabilities to fulfil its stated goal of ‘exponentially’ expanding its nuclear arsenal. SIPRI estimates that the country has possibly assembled around 60 warheads, possesses enough fissile material to produce at least 30 more and is accelerating the production of fissile material. In 2025 North Korea continued to unveil and test new missile systems, including the ‘next-generation’ solid-fuelled Hwasong-20 ICBM, as well as medium-range, highly manoeuvrable systems designed to evade missile defences.   Israel—which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons—is also believed to be modernizing its nuclear arsenal. In 2025 Israel intensified construction at a new site at the Negev Nuclear Research Center near Dimona, which could be related to its nuclear capabilities.   New risks as reliance on nuclear weapons grows   While nuclear programmes have always been shrouded in secrecy, in recent years nuclear-armed states have shifted further towards strategic ambiguity and opacity even as they modernize and expand their nuclear forces. This trend seems likely to continue in the post-New START world. At the same time, there is a lack of strategic dialogue or direct communication among certain nuclear-armed states.   ‘Along with the reduction in transparency and the loss of diplomatic channels for crisis management, the drift towards authoritarianism in some nuclear-armed states is contributing to even greater unpredictability,’ said Matt Korda, Associate Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Associate Director for the Nuclear Information Project at FAS.   ‘We can no longer assume that leaders operating within such systems will receive accurate data during nuclear crises, nor that they will act rationally during periods of heightened tension.’   Developments and national debates in East Asia, Europe and the Middle East during 2025 also hinted at a growing role for nuclear weapons in several non-nuclear-armed states’ security and defence strategies.   In 2025 several European states, including Germany, indicated a desire to supplement NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements focused on US weapons with similar arrangements with France and the UK. President Macron announced in March 2026 that France was already in dialogue with Germany and the UK and that several other European states were interested in joining.   In addition, both Belarus and Russia have repeatedly claimed that Russia has deployed nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory, and in December 2025 Russia released a video showing the dual-capable Oreshnik IRBM operating inside Belarus.   A weakening non-proliferation regime   These developments are unfolding at a time when the global nuclear non-proliferation regime is weakening. The 2026 Review Conference of the states parties to the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which ended on 22 May, was the third Review Conference in a row to close without issuing a final outcome document.   ‘The fact that the states parties to the Non-Proliferation Treaty once again failed to reach agreement on an outcome document is another blow to the grand bargain at the heart of the treaty: that other states will not develop their own nuclear forces if the nuclear weapon states move towards disarmament,’ said SIPRI Director Karim Haggag.   ‘The absence of a successor agreement to New START, the modernization of nuclear forces and plans to increase the deployment of nuclear weapons are all likely to further undermine the legitimacy of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.   This will make it more difficult for the states parties to collectively address the many challenges across the nuclear landscape, including in the Middle East and East Asia.’   In his introduction to the 57th edition of the SIPRI Yearbook, SIPRI Director Karim Haggag discusses the sources and symptoms of growing global disorder and insecurity, as well as the ways states are responding.   ‘Two phenomena have a particularly notable impact on global security dynamics today: the resurgence of war between technologically advanced states and the fraying of the USA’s relationships with its allies,’ said Haggag. ‘The intersection of these drivers is making global security politics increasingly complex and is deepening insecurity in many parts of the world.’   He warns that a self-reinforcing cycle seems to have taken hold whereby the great powers seek to protect their security and geopolitical dominance in ways that further deepen the overall sense of insecurity and vulnerability. The assumption that mutual interdependence in trade would generate peace and prosperity has given way to the increasing weaponization of trade, commodities, technology, supply chains, water and energy flows. If left unchecked, he says, current trends could undermine strategic stability.   * In addition to the detailed coverage of nuclear arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation issues, the SIPRI Yearbook presents data and analysis on developments in world military expenditure, international arms transfers, arms production, multilateral peace operations, armed conflicts, cyber and digital threats, space security governance and more.   http://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2026/increasing-focus-nuclear-weapons-amid-heightened-escalation-risks-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now
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