Continuing with current climate policies will lead to 3.1°C of calamitous global warming by WMO, UN Environment Programme, agencies   Oct. 2024   Greenhouse gases surged to new highs in 2023. (WMO)   Greenhouse gas levels surged to a new record in 2023, committing the planet to rising temperatures for many years to come, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Carbon dioxide (CO2) is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than any time experienced during human existence, rising by more than 10% in just two decades.   In the course of 2023, large vegetation fire CO2 emissions and a possible reduction in carbon absorption by forests combined with stubbornly high fossil fuel CO2 emissions from human and industrial activities to drive the increase, according to the WMO’s annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.   The globally-averaged surface concentration of CO2 reached 420.0 parts per million (ppm), methane 1 934 parts per billion and nitrous oxide 336.9 parts per billion (ppb) in 2023. These values are 151%, 265% and 125% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels, it said. These are calculated on the basis of the long-term observations within the Global Atmosphere Watch network of monitoring stations.   “Another year. Another record. This should set alarm bells ringing among decision makers. We are clearly off track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.   “The Bulletin warns that we face a potential vicious cycle. Natural climate variability plays a big role in carbon cycle. But in the near future, climate change itself could cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases. Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst the warmer ocean might absorb less CO2. Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming. These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human society,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.   From 1990 to 2023, radiative forcing – the warming effect on our climate - by long-lived greenhouse gases increased by 51.5%, with CO2 accounting for about 81% of this increase, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Annual Greenhouse Gas Index cited in the WMO Bulletin.   As long as emissions continue, greenhouse gases will continue accumulating in the atmosphere leading to global temperature rise. Given the extremely long life of CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature level already observed will persist for several decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero.   The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now..   Oct. 2024   UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell on the release of the 2024 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report. The report assesses the combined impact of nations’ current national climate plans (NDCs) on expected global emissions in 2030, among other measures:   "Today’s NDC Synthesis Report must be a turning point, ending the era of inadequacy and sparking a new age of acceleration, with much bolder new national climate plans from every country due next year.   The report’s findings are stark but not surprising – current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country.   By contrast, much bolder new national climate plans can not only avert climate chaos – done well, they can be transformational for people and prosperity in every nation.   Bolder new climate plans are vital to drive stronger investment, economic growth and opportunity, more jobs, less pollution, better health and lower costs, more secure and affordable clean energy, among many others benefits.   As expected, with countries currently working to put together new NDCs due next year, this year’s report shows only fractional progress compared to what is expected – and urgently needed – next year.   Current plans combined – if fully implemented – would see emissions of 51.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2030 - a level only 2.6 per cent lower than in 2019. Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception.   The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. By 2035, net global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 60% compared to 2019 levels. This is critical to limiting global heating to 1.5°C this century to avert the worst climate impacts. Every fraction of a degree matters, as climate disasters get rapidly worse"..   Oct. 2024   Continuing with current climate policies will lead to 3.1°C of calamitous global warming. (UNEP)   Nations must collectively commit to cutting 42 per cent off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – and back this up with rapid action – or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report.   Updated NDCs are to be submitted early next year ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil. UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! finds that a failure to increase ambition in these new NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century. This would bring debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies.   The 2.6°C scenario is based on the full implementation of current unconditional and conditional NDCs. Implementing only current unconditional NDCs would lead to 2.8°C of warming.   Continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming. Under these scenarios – which all operate on a probability of over 66 per cent – temperatures would continue to rise into the next century.   Adding additional net-zero pledges to full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs could limit global warming to 1.9°C, but there is currently low confidence in the implementation of these net-zero pledges.   “The emissions gap is not an abstract notion,” said António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, in a video message on the report. “There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters.   Around the world, people are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinder boxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods.   “Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire; but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time. Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap. Starting at COP29.”   The report also looks at what it would take to get on track to limiting global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28 per cent by 2030 and 37 per cent from 2019 levels by 2035 – the new milestone year to be included in the next NDCs.   “Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead and well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.   “I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now, set the stage for stronger NDCs, and then go all-out to get on a 1.5°C pathway.   “Even if the world overshoots 1.5°C – and the chances of this happening are increasing every day – we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot.”   The consequences of delayed action are also highlighted by the report. The cuts required are relative to 2019 levels, but greenhouse gas emissions have since grown to a record high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. While this makes a marginal difference to the overall cuts required from 2019-2030, the delay in action means that 7.5 per cent must be shaved off emissions every year until 2035 for 1.5°C, and 4 per cent for 2°C. The size of the annual cuts required will increase with every year’s delay.   1.5°C still technically possible, but massive effort needed   The report shows that there is technical potential for emissions cuts in 2030 up to 31 gigatons of CO2 equivalent – which is around 52 per cent of emissions in 2023 – and 41 gigatons in 2035. This would bridge the gap to 1.5°C in both years, at a cost below US$200 per ton of CO2 equivalent.   Increased deployment of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind energy could deliver 27 per cent of the total reduction potential in 2030 and 38 per cent in 2035. Action on forests could deliver around 20 per cent of the potential in both years. Other strong options include efficiency measures, electrification and fuel switching in the buildings, transport and industry sectors.   This potential illustrates it is possible to meet the COP28 targets of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels, and conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems.   However, delivering on even some of this potential will require unprecedented international mobilization and a whole-of-government approach, focusing on measures that maximize socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits and minimize trade-offs.   A minimum six-fold increase in mitigation investment is needed for net-zero – backed by reform of the global financial architecture, strong private sector action and international cooperation. This is affordable: the estimated incremental investment for net-zero is US$0.9-2.1 trillion per year from 2021 to 2050 – investments that would bring returns in avoided costs from climate change, air pollution, damage to nature and human health impacts. For context, the global economy and financial markets are worth US$110 trillion per year.   The G20 members, responsible for the bulk of total emissions, must do the heavy lifting. However, this group is still off track to meet even current NDCs. The largest-emitting members will need to take the lead by dramatically increasing action and ambition now and in the new pledges.   G20 members, minus the African Union, accounted for 77 per cent of emissions in 2023. The addition of the African Union as a permanent G20 member, which more than doubles the number of countries represented from 44 to 99, brings the share up by only 5 per cent to 82 per cent – highlighting the need for differentiated responsibilities between nations.   Stronger international support and enhanced climate finance will be essential to ensure that climate and development goals can be realized fairly across G20 members and globally.   The report also lays out how to ensure the updated NDCs are well-designed, specific and transparent so they can meet any new targets put in place. NDCs must include all gases listed in the Kyoto Protocol, cover all sectors, set specific targets, be explicit about conditional and unconditional elements and provide transparency around how the submission reflects a fair share of effort and the highest possible ambition.   They must also detail how national sustainable development goals can be achieved at the same time as efforts to reduce emissions, and include detailed implementation plans with mechanisms for review and accountability.   For emerging market and developing economies, NDCs should include details on the international support and finance they need.   http://unfccc.int/news/new-un-climate-change-report-shows-national-climate-plans-fall-miles-short-of-what-s-needed http://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2024-virtually-certain-be-warmest-year-and-first-year-above-15degc http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-surge-again-new-record-2023 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http://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/25-of-35-planetary-vital-signs-at-record-extremes-2024-state-of-the-climate-report   http://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2024-11-12/secretary-generals-remarks-world-leaders-climate-action-summit-cop29-delivered http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/09/global-boiling-mass-flooding-and-trump-10-big-talking-points-for-cop29 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/08/antonio-guterres-cop29-climate-breakdown-tipping-points-fossil-fuels-finance-aoe http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/09/ban-ki-moon-cop29-climate-crisis-hurricanes-heatwaves-flooding http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/15/coal-oil-and-gas-lobbyists-granted-access-to-cop29-says-report http://www.ciel.org/news/ccs-presence-cop29/ http://www.ciel.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Confronting-the-Myth-of-Carbon-Free-Fossil-Fuels.pdf   http://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2024/10/24/what-ncqg-cop29-climate-crisis-answer-everything 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	The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth by world leading climate scientists, agencies BioScience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, agencies   30 Oct. 2024   Health threats of climate change reach record-breaking levels, report leading researchers from University College London (UCL) in the latest Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change.   The 2024 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change reveals that people in every country face record-breaking threats to health and survival from the rapidly changing climate, with 10 of 15 indicators tracking health threats reaching concerning new levels.   Publishing annually in The Lancet, with strategic and financial support from the Wellcome Trust, The Lancet Countdown is hosted by UCL and works with almost 300 leading researchers from around the world to track and understand the evolving links between climate change and people’s health.   Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown, Dr Marina Romanello said: “This year’s stocktake of the imminent health threats of climate inaction reveals the most concerning findings yet in our eight years of monitoring.   “Once again, last year broke climate change records – with extreme heat waves, deadly weather events, and devastating wildfires affecting people around the world.   “No individual or economy on the planet is immune from the health threats of climate change. The relentless expansion of fossil fuels and record-breaking greenhouse gas emissions compounds these dangerous health impacts and is threatening to reverse the limited progress made so far and put a healthy future further out of reach.”   As a result, experts are calling for trillions of dollars spent on fossil fuels to be redirected towards protecting people’s health, lives and livelihoods.   Dr Romanello said: “Despite this threat, we see financial resources continue to be invested in the very things that undermine our health.   “Repurposing the trillions of dollars being invested in, or subsidising, the fossil fuel industry every year would provide the opportunity to deliver a fair, equitable transition to clean energy and energy efficiency, and a healthier future, ultimately benefiting the global economy.”   Key findings from the report include:   In 2023, people were exposed to, on average, an unprecedented 50 more days of health-threatening temperatures than expected without climate change. Extreme drought affected 48% of the global land area – the second highest level recorded – and the higher frequency of heatwaves and droughts was associated with 151 million more people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity than annually between 1981 and 2010.   Governments and companies are “fuelling the fire” with persistent investment in fossil fuels, all-time high energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, and years of delays in adaptation that are narrowing the survival chances of people across the globe.   The financial resources to deliver net zero and secure a healthy future are available. Yet governments and companies are spending trillions of dollars on fossil fuel subsidies and investments that are making climate change worse – money that could be redirected towards clean renewable energy and activities that benefits people’s health, livelihood and wellbeing.   Amidst these concerning findings, the report highlights new opportunities to put health at the centre of the world’s response to climate change, including at the upcoming ‘finance COP’ in Azerbaijan. The Lancet Countdown report contributes to the evidence needed to inform the negotiations and deliver truly health-protecting climate change action.   Co-Chair of the Lancet Countdown Professor Anthony Costello said: “Progress towards an equitable and healthy future requires a global transformation of financial systems, shifting resources away from the fossil-fuel based economy towards a zero-emissions future.   “For successful reform, people’s health must be put front and centre of climate change policy to ensure the funding mechanisms protect wellbeing, reduce health inequities and maximise health gains, especially for the countries and communities that need it most.”   The report notes that the engagement of individuals, corporations, scientists, and international organisations with climate change and health is growing, raising hopes that a healthy, prosperous future could still be within reach.   Responding to the report publication, UN Secretary-General, António Guterres said: “Record-high emissions are posing record-breaking threats to our health. We must cure the sickness of climate inaction – by slashing emissions, protecting people from climate extremes, and ending our fossil fuel addiction – to create a fairer, safer, and healthier future for all.”   http://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2024/oct/health-threats-climate-change-reach-record-breaking-levels http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01822-1/abstract   Oct. 2024   The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth, report from world leading climate scientists.   We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis.   For many years, scientists, including a group of more than 15,000, have sounded the alarm about the impending dangers of climate change driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem change. For half a century, global warming has been correctly predicted even before it was observed—and not only by independent academic scientists but also by fossil fuel companies.   Despite these warnings, we are still moving in the wrong direction; fossil fuel emissions have increased to an all-time high, the 3 hottest days ever occurred in July of 2024 (Guterres 2024), and current policies have us on track for at least 2.7 degrees Celsius (°C) peak warming by 2100 (UNEP 2023).   Tragically, we are failing to avoid serious impacts, and we can now only hope to limit the extent of the damage. We are witnessing the grim reality of the forecasts as climate impacts escalate, bringing forth scenes of unprecedented disasters around the world and human and nonhuman suffering.   We find ourselves amid an abrupt climate upheaval, a dire situation never before encountered in the annals of human existence. We have now brought the planet into climatic conditions never witnessed by us or our prehistoric relatives.   Last year, we witnessed record-breaking sea surface temperatures, the hottest Northern Hemisphere extratropical summer in 2000 years, and the breaking of many other climate records. Moreover, we will see much more extreme weather in the coming years. Human-caused carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases are the primary drivers of climate change.   As of 2022, global fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes account for approximately 90% of these emissions, whereas land-use change, primarily deforestation, accounts for approximately 10%.   Our aim in the present article is to communicate directly to researchers, policymakers, and the public. As scientists and academics, we feel it is our moral duty and that of our institutions to alert humanity to the growing threats that we face as clearly as possible and to show leadership in addressing them.   In this report, we analyze the latest trends in a wide array of planetary vital signs. We also review notable recent climate-related disasters, spotlight important climate-related topics, and discuss needed policy interventions. This report is part of our series of concise annual updates on the state of the climate.   Recent trends in planetary vital signs   In 2023, various historical temperature and ice extent records were broken by enormous margins. Both global and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures were far above their 1991–2024 averages for much of the year—a pattern that has continued well into 2024. Although Antarctic and global sea ice extent have now come into range of previous years, they remain well below their 1993–2024 averages. Global daily mean temperatures were at record levels for nearly half of 2023 and much of 2024. On our current emissions trajectory, we may regularly surpass current temperature records in future years.   Of the 35 planetary vital signs we track annually, 25 are at record levels. The global failure to support a rapid and socially just fossil fuel phasedown has led to rapidly escalating climate-related impacts.   Climate-related extreme weather and disasters are contributing greatly to human suffering. Increasing heat and rainfall extremes are now far outside the historical climate. The rapid increase in average global temperatures has led to a massive rise in the incidence of heat extremes. This is linked to many adverse human outcomes, including direct mortality, increased healthcare costs, mental health issues, and deaths from cardiorespiratory diseases. Climate change has already contributed to billions of people facing extreme heat.   Because the Earth system is strongly nonlinear, extreme weather and disaster rates can increase dramatically in response to global warming, including impacts on plant and animal life..   Despite six IPCC reports, 28 COP meetings, hundreds of other reports, and tens of thousands of scientific papers, the world has made only very minor headway on climate change, in part because of stiff resistance from those benefiting financially from the current fossil-fuel based system.   We are currently going in the wrong direction, and our increasing fossil fuel consumption and rising greenhouse gas emissions are driving us toward a climate catastrophe. We fear the danger of climate breakdown. The evidence we observe is both alarming and undeniable, but it is this very shock that drives us to action. We recognize the profound urgency of addressing this global challenge, especially the horrific outlook for the world's poor.   Our goal is to provide clear, evidence-based insights that inspire informed and bold responses from citizens to researchers and world leaders.   The surge in yearly climate disasters shows we are in a major crisis with worse to come if we continue with business as usual. Today, more than ever, our actions matter for the stable climate system that has supported us for thousands of years. Humanity's future depends on our creativity, moral fiber, and perseverance.   We must urgently reduce ecological overshoot and pursue immediate large-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation to limit near-term damage. Only through decisive action can we safeguard the natural world, avert profound human suffering, and ensure that future generations inherit the livable world they deserve. The future of humanity hangs in the balance.   * Authors: William Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Jillian Gregg, Johan Rockstrom, Michael Mann, Naomi Oreskes, Timothy Lenton, Stefan Rahmstorf, Thomas Newsome, Chi Xu, Jens-Christian Svenning, Cassio Cardoso Pereira, Beverly Law and Thomas Crowther.   http://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biae087/7808595 http://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/25-of-35-planetary-vital-signs-at-record-extremes-2024-state-of-the-climate-report Visit the related web page
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