El Nino is back. Extreme heat, droughts and floods predicted by WMO, OCHA, ACAPS, agencies   28 July 2026   UN Climate Chief: "The climate alarm is blaring, from every direction."   Statement issued by UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell on 28th July 2026, as spiraling climate-driven disasters put lives at risk and hammer economies around the world:   "The climate alarm is blaring, from every direction. Around the world, climate-driven disasters are reaching nightmare proportions, as the costs of humanity’s addiction to burning coal, oil and gas keep spiraling upwards.   These record-breaking wildfires tearing through France, Spain and other parts of Europe, forcing mass evacuations and hammering regional and national economies, follow brutal heatwaves that have dried out landscapes. With the mercury set to soar again this week, the awful costs of this climate crisis – both human and economic – are now reaching national emergency levels.   In North Africa, temperatures are approaching 49°C, putting lives and livelihoods in grave jeopardy, and putting hospitals and power systems under severe strain. In Chile, deadly storms have destroyed homes and lives. While in Japan, records are tumbling as temperatures soar, now reaching the longest 40°C heat streak ever recorded.   These spiraling disasters are now the lived reality for billions in a world getting rapidly hotter, as humanity moves too slowly from fossil fuels to clean energy and to protect forests.   The science on the cause is unequivocal: global heating, driven by humanity burning colossal amounts of coal, oil and gas, is making protracted heatwaves, severe floods and violent mega-storms more frequent, more intense and more costly.   What needs to be done is equally clear: leave coal, oil and gas behind faster, scale up renewables, and protect people where the impacts are already hitting hardest. Many vulnerable countries on the frontlines need support to move at the speed and scale this crisis demands.   http://unfccc.int/news/un-climate-chief-the-climate-alarm-is-blaring-from-every-direction http://unfccc.int/news/un-climate-chief-europe-s-savage-heatwave-has-the-fingerprints-of-the-climate-crisis-all-over-it   3 July 2026   El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).   “El Nino conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event - as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.   “El Nino will give an extra boost to global temperatures,” said WMO scientist Alvaro Silva. “We know that during El Nino years, the global temperatures normally reach record levels.”   El Nino events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and twelve months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures during the year following their onset.   UN relief chief calls for early action as El Nino threatens vulnerable communities. (OCHA)   "El Nino is back. Extreme heat, droughts and floods are once again set to devastate communities across Latin America, Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific.   The last El Nino in 2023-24 left tens of millions of people in need of food, nutrition, water, sanitation, health, agricultural support and protection.   The forecasts are clear: this one looks even worse. It comes on top of widespread conflict, rising numbers of people on the move, and as soaring fuel, fertilizer and food prices are squeezing the most vulnerable families – while the humanitarian system reels from deep cuts.   We need early, flexible financing – more effective and less costly in the long run – to match the scale of the risk. We ask for the world to prioritize conflict resolution and support to communities forced to flee. And we urge braver climate action in place of the short term and selfish decisions that are pushing us relentlessly towards the 1.5°C warming cliff edge. The choice is clear: we can wait for disaster, or we can invest in resilience".   http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-forecast-intensify-increasing-likelihood-of-extreme-weather http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/press-releases http://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-02293-y http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/07/1167911   Global El-Nino overview: countries to watch. (ACAPS)   Strong El Nino conditions are expected to persist into early 2027, bringing widespread climate extremes that could intensify humanitarian needs across multiple regions. Drought, flooding, heatwaves, storms, disease outbreaks, and agricultural losses are likely to intersect with conflict, displacement, economic pressures, and rising global temperatures, creating cascading impacts for millions of people. Countries already facing fragile humanitarian conditions are expected to bear the greatest burden, underscoring the need for early preparedness and anticipatory action before these overlapping risks deepen existing crises: http://tinyurl.com/uym5z7rp   El Nino is putting millions of lives at risk in eastern and southern Africa. (UN News)   In eastern Africa, from Somali to Tanzania, it tends to mean too much rain. Flash floods, rivers bursting their banks, landslides, homes underwater, roads washed out, clinics and schools cut off.   In southern Africa, from Zambia to South Africa and from Namibia to Mozambique, it usually means the opposite; not enough rain which means crops failing, water sources drying up, and pastures disappearing.   Different weather, but the same outcome; the most vulnerable people lose the safety nets that keep them alive.   Esnart Chongani is a farmer in Zambia. She said the 2024 drought meant her family harvested no maize at all. “I cannot remember anything like this,” she said. People are so hungry. The generosity of our community has disappeared because everyone is struggling.”   Martha Kalumbi in Malawi, whose baby was hospitalised for malnutrition said a failed harvest left her family and everyone around her, with nothing.   “My child was always crying. Doctors told me she was starving and getting malnourished,” she said. “I was afraid that my baby might die. The situation was painful.”   And it's not just hunger. Floods contaminate water supplies, which fuels outbreaks of cholera and other waterborne disease. Standing water breeds mosquitoes, driving up malaria.   People lose homes and get displaced, sometimes for good. In Somalia, a mother of nine named Asha Mohamed was pushed from her home by the 2023 floods.   “Life became challenging after the floods,” she said. “My children fell sick, and I had no money to buy medicine or take them to a proper health facility.”   June 2026   El Nino set to fuel more extreme weather, says WMO   A new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) El Nino/La Nina Update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Nino event during June–August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. Although some uncertainty remains about El Nino peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be strong.   WMO El Nino/Updates are the world’s most authoritative source of information for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management.   They are based on a consensus from WMO Global Producing Centres, experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and climate prediction centres around the world and are produced through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).   Statement by Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization:   "This update matters because El Nino is a major driver of global weather and climate patterns. A warmer ocean adds heat and moisture to the climate system which can serve to worsen some climate extremes including heatwaves and heavy rainfall. The strong El Nino of 2023-2024 added a temporary warming effect on top of an already long-term warming trend. This contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record.   In some regions it is likely we will see heavy rainfall and floods; in others drought conditions; and in others, increased or reduced tropical cyclone activity. We can also expect an increased risk of extreme heat, with higher temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns adding further stress on human health, ecosystems, agriculture, and energy systems.   Extreme heat alone is already one of the deadliest climate hazards we face. An El Nino event will intensify this threat: more heat-related illness, wider spread of vector-borne diseases, increased pressure on food and water systems, and communities that were already struggling will be pushed further beyond their limits.   The footprint of an El Nino travels far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, impacting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods across entire regions".   Statement by Antonio Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General :   “The science is clear: El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed".   "The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.”   http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-prepare-el-nino http://wmo.int/content/launch-of-wmo-el-ninola-nina-bulletin-june-august-2026 http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/06/1167620 http://www.dw.com/en/is-africa-ready-for-el-nino-drought-floods/a-77826694   11 June 2026   El Nino under way and threatens weather extremes, scientists say. (agencies)   The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared that El Nino conditions are now under way in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures having risen sharply in recent months.   Many forecasts suggest this could end up as a so-called "super" El Nino, and even be among the strongest ever recorded.   Coming on top of decades of human-caused warming, it could bring another record-hot year - most likely in 2027 - with disruption to weather, food supplies and economies running well into that year.   According to NOAA's June outlook, "there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Nino during November-January, that would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950," the agency said.   The three strongest events since then have been in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16.   “El Nino affects weather patterns by bringing “a lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world”, said Abby Frazier, a Clark University climate scientist. “It can get dire very quickly”.   Some of the latest US and European (ECMWF) climate models go further, showing temperatures in the tropical Pacific potentially climbing more than 3C above average by the end of the year. The concern is that all this is happening on an already much hotter planet.   "We do need to worry about the impacts," said Prof Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office. "The current El Nino is… riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming. "This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented, as the warming from El Nino is being topped up by climate change."   "At the end of this year and into 2027, we're likely to see very high temperatures globally," Prof Scaife said. "In 2027, we're likely to see excess heat on top of the global warming we've already got, and that could easily lead to another year above 1.5 degrees [of warming above late-19th-Century levels]."   "An El Nino declaration is not just another weather forecast - for millions of people it is a deadly siren to be feared," said Mohamed Adow, director of campaign group Power Shift Africa.   "It means failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again. In East Africa especially, this will land on communities already battered by droughts and floods in recent years."   Experts warn the conditions may lead to shock in the global food supply with crops such as maize and rice especially vulnerable to El Nino and drought reducing food production in countries such as South Africa, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil.   http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/09/super-el-nino-global-economy http://reliefweb.int/report/world/inter-agency-report-global-enso-analysis-cell-el-nino-status-and-humanitarian-outlook http://www.fightfoodcrises.net/articles/wfp-and-fao-publish-analysis-potential-impacts-el-nino http://www.wfp.org/news/bracing-el-nino-fao-and-wfp-launch-joint-appeal-protect-88-million-people-extreme-weather http://350.org/press-release/350-org-responds-to-wmo-warning-on-developing-el-nino/   June 2026   Heat has killed 200,000 people in Europe in just four years. (UN News)   Extreme heat has claimed more than 200,000 lives across Europe over the past four years, according to the UN World Health Organization (WHO), which warned that heatwaves are becoming an increasingly frequent and deadly public health emergency driven by climate change.   “We need a coordinated, powerful and institutional response,” said WHO Regional Director Dr. Hans Kluge at the launch of the updated Heat–Health Action Plans Guidance in Berlin on Thursday.   The new guidance outlines evidence-based measures governments can take to reduce heat-related illness and deaths, including early warning systems, cooling centres, urban greening initiatives and targeted support for vulnerable populations. WHO stressed that individual actions such as staying hydrated and avoiding direct heat exposure remain important but are not sufficient to confront what it described as a growing systemic challenge.   Simon Stiell, the UN’s climate chief, said: “Climate change is running rampant, caused by the world’s addiction to burning coal, oil and gas. But the solutions are equally clear: a faster shift to clean energy – which is now much cheaper than fossil fuels – as well as protecting forests and building climate resilience.”   http://wmo.int/media/news/record-breaking-heat-spreads-through-europe http://wmo.int/media/news/western-europe-has-hottest-june-record http://www.who.int/europe/publications/i/item/9789289062930 http://www.worldweatherattribution.org/fossil-fuel-emissions-have-rapidly-worsened-european-heatwaves-in-just-a-few-decades/ http://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/earth2019s-heat-imbalance-reaches-record-high-as-human-caused-warming-hits-1-37degc
	The Earth’s climate is more out of balance than at any time in observed history by World Meteorological Organization, agencies   June 2026   Mexico, Italy and others see up to two more months of heat stress than in the 1970s, study says. (AP, Nature Climate Change)   Mexico, Kenya, Italy and other nations around the world are experiencing one to two more months of heat stress than they were several decades ago, new research published this week says, and some areas even more so. Regions previously untouched by heat stress are now feeling it, too.   Extreme feels-like temperatures, heat stress days and tropical nights have all become dramatically more frequent, long and severe over the past six decades as the planet’s warming intensifies — a result of the burning of fossil fuels coal, oil and gas — according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on Monday.   The researchers went beyond just temperature, which is frequently studied, and used feels-like temperatures, to understand more of the impact on people. They assessed heat stress on individual humans, influenced by temperature, humidity, wind speed and more. They used what’s called the Universal Thermal Climate Index to analyze those factors and model the human body’s response to the environment.   The combination of heat and humidity can be dangerous for humans, because humidity impacts how sweat evaporates, and that’s a cooling mechanism. Heat waves that are humid can be more fatal than dry heat waves as humans don’t cool down as easily.   Past studies have looked at the extent to which human-driven climate change has sent temperatures soaring, especially in recent years. One study says people globally suffered an average of 41 extra days of dangerous heat in 2024. Some research says that the world is on track to add nearly two months of superhot days each year by the end of the century.   Here, researchers looked at heat stress at three levels: strong (index temperatures of greater than or equal to 32 degrees Celsius, or 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit); very strong (index temperatures of greater than or equal to 38 degrees Celsius, or 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit); and extreme (index temperatures of greater than or equal to 46 degrees Celsius, or 114.8 degrees Fahrenheit).   Places that might see around 50 more days per year of at least strong heat stress compared with the 1970s include parts of Southern Africa, such as in Namibia and Angola; Eastern Africa, including parts of Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda; and parts of Mexico and Central America.   In Southern Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey, some areas will see up to 40 additional days with strong heat stress compared with the 1970s. Much of Southern Europe is seeing almost a full month of additional strong heat stress days from decades ago.   In the U.S., much of the country sees 15 or more days of at least strong heat stress, and southern parts, including Texas and Florida, are seeing close to 25 or more days with very strong heat stress. Those heat stress seasons are also lasting longer.   The study’s lead author Rebecca Emerton, also a senior scientist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in the United Kingdom, said it was striking “to see heat stress not only intensifying in those places that we already consider as being hot or used to experiencing heat waves ... but also to see this, we call it, expanding footprint of heat stress expanding into regions where it’s historically been rare or non-existent.”   According to the study, the feels-like temperatures on the ten warmest nights of each year have also increased faster — 0.32 degrees Celsius (0.58 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade — than the ten warmest days, 0.27 degrees Celsius (0.49 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade.   For tropical nights, the researchers considered minimum temperature of 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit). This means people might not be recovering properly from daytime heat in the overnight hours.   And now, one billion more people face at least one day of extreme heat stress each year than they did in the 1970s.   The world has known that adding heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests will warm the globe, said Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center on Cape Cod, who was not involved in the research.   “This study adds stark details about increasing dangers to billions of humans,” Francis said. “This analysis shows not only is temperature rising, but so is humidity, which makes high temperatures more deadly because our body’s air conditioning system — sweating — struggles to keep up.”   Emerton says the work highlights the urgent need to mitigate future warming and ensure adaptation strategies, heat health action plans, early warning systems and climate risk assessments are in place.   http://tinyurl.com/5ukyhawx http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02670-5   Apr. 2026   The Earth’s climate is more out of balance than at any time in observed history. (WMO)   The Earth’s climate is more out of balance than at any time in observed history, as greenhouse gas concentrations drive continued warming of the atmosphere and ocean and melting of ice, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).   These rapid and large-scale changes have occurred within a few decades but will have harmful repercussions for hundreds – and potentially thousands – of years.   WMO’s State of the Global Climate report 2025 confirms that 2015-2025 are the hottest 11-years on record, and that 2025 was the second or third hottest year on record, at about 1.43 °C above the 1850-1900 average.   Extreme events around the world, including intense heat, heavy rainfall and tropical cyclones, caused disruption and devastation and highlighted the vulnerability of our inter-connected economies and societies.   “The State of the Global Climate is in a state of emergency. Planet Earth is being pushed beyond its limits. Every key climate indicator is flashing red,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.   “Humanity has just endured the eleven hottest years on record. When history repeats itself eleven times, it is no longer a coincidence. It is a call to act,” said Mr Guterres.   Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization:   “Our report confirms that 2025 was among the hottest years ever recorded, about 1.43 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline, and part of an unprecedented streak where the past eleven years have all ranked as the warmest on record. What is particularly concerning is that this warming is not just reflected in temperatures but across the entire climate system. We are seeing glaciers continue to retreat, oceans warming at record levels, and sea levels rising as a result of both thermal expansion and melting ice.   At the same time, extreme events such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and tropical cyclones are affecting virtually every continent, showing how societies are already experiencing the impacts of climate change in real time.”   For the first time, the report includes the Earth’s energy imbalance as one of the key climate indicators.   The Earth’s energy balance measures the rate at which energy enters and leaves the Earth system. Under a stable climate, incoming energy from the sun is about the same as the amount of outgoing energy.   However, increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide - to their highest level in at least 800,000 years have upset this equilibrium.   The Earth’s energy imbalance has increased since its observational record began in 1960, particularly in the past 20 years. It reached a new high in 2025.   “Scientific advances have improved our understanding of the Earth’s energy imbalance and of the reality facing our planet and our climate right now,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “Human activities are increasingly disrupting the natural equilibrium and we will live with these consequences for hundreds and thousands of years.”   “On a day-to-day basis, our weather has become more extreme. In 2025, heatwaves, wildfires, drought, tropical cyclones, storms and flooding caused thousands of deaths, impacted millions of people and caused billions in economic losses,” said Celeste Saulo.   Data from individual monitoring stations show that levels of three main greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – continued to increase in 2025. In 2024 – the last year for which we have consolidated global observations - the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide reached its highest level in the last 2 million years, and methane and nitrous oxide in at least last 800 000 years.   The increase in the annual carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) in 2024 was the largest annual increase since modern measurements began in 1957. This was driven by continued fossil CO2 emissions, and reduced effectiveness of land and ocean carbon sinks.   The past eleven years, 2015–2025, were the eleven warmest years on record.   The ocean continues to warm and absorb carbon dioxide. It has been absorbing the equivalent of about eighteen times the annual human energy use each year for the past two decades. Annual sea ice extent in the Arctic was at or near a record low, Antarctic sea ice extent was the third lowest on record, and glacier melt continued unabated, according to the report.   In 2025, ocean heat content (to a depth of 2,000 metres) reached the highest level since the start of records in 1960, exceeding the previous high set in 2024. Over the past nine years, each year has set a new record for ocean heat content.   Climate change has wide-ranging impacts on mortality, livelihoods, ecosystems and health systems and amplifies risks such as vector- and water-borne diseases, especially among vulnerable populations.   Dengue stands out as the world’s fastest-growing mosquito-borne disease. According to the World Health Organization, about half the world’s population is at risk and reported case are currently the highest ever recorded.   Heat stress is a growing problem. Over one-third of the global workforce (1.2 billion people) face workplace heat risk at some point each year, especially those in agriculture and construction. In addition to health impacts, this leads to productivity and livelihood losses.   A supplement to the report provides a snapshot of extreme events, based on inputs from WMO Members, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), World Food Programme (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), focusing on the meteorological aspects and the impacts related to displacement and food security.   Extreme weather has cascading impacts on agricultural production. Climate-driven food insecurity is now seen as a risk, with cascading effects on social stability, migration and biosecurity through the spread of plant pests and animal diseases.   It also continues to drive new, onward and protracted displacement of people globally, with particularly severe consequences in fragile and conflict-affected regions.   The cascading and compounding impacts of multiple disasters severely limit the ability of vulnerable communities to prepare for, recover from and adapt to shocks.   http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/new-report-suggests-more-global-temperature-records-ahead http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/05/1167596 http://wmo.int/news/media-centre/earths-climate-swings-increasingly-out-of-balance http://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate/state-of-global-climate-2025 http://www.unognewsroom.org/story/en/3060/wmo-presser-state-of-the-global-climate-2025-report/9190 http://www.ipsnews.net/2026/03/world-heating-faster-than-expected-scientists-sound-alarm-in-latest-un-report/ http://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260508-eu-monitor-says-sea-temperatures-near-all-time-highs-as-el-nino-looms http://climate.copernicus.eu/sea-surface-temperatures-approach-record-levels-march http://www.who.int/europe/news/item/17-05-2026-climate-change-is-a-health-crisis---and-fixing-it-is-a-health-opportunity http://www.who.int/europe/publications/m/item/pan-european-commission-on-climate-and-health--call-to-action Visit the related web page
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