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The climate crisis is the defining challenge that humanity faces
by Celeste Saulo
Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization
 
June 2024
 
(Statement to the UN Human Rights Council; 20 June 2024)
 
The top priority of the World Meteorological Organization is to protect the most fundamental right of all. The right to life.
 
National meteorological and hydrological services work 24/7 to save lives and livelihoods. We are passionate about our mission. And we are very good at our jobs.
 
Better weather forecasts and improvement disaster risk management mean that we have slashed the death toll from extreme weather. But climate change threatens to undermine our progress.
 
The pace of climate change is accelerating quickly, and it affects everyone, everywhere. As the authoritative voice of weather, water and climate, WMO is sounding the Red Alert.
 
The UN Secretary-General recently said: It’s Climate Crunch Time. We are getting ever closer to the 1.5° C lower limit of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
 
The world celebrated when the UN Human Rights Council passed a landmark resolution in 2021. This confirmed that a healthy environment is a human right. It marked a watershed moment in the fight against the triple planetary crisis of climate change, nature and biodiversity loss and pollution and waste. But the time for celebration has passed.
 
The climate crisis is the defining challenge that humanity faces. It is closely intertwined with the inequality crisis. It has cascading impacts on food security, population displacement and migration, health, energy, water. Every single one of the Sustainable Development Goals is affected.
 
Sea-level rise is threatening the very existence of small island developing states. It is displacing communities, contaminating water supplies, disrupting marine ecosystems.
 
Heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones cause untold suffering every year. They undermine multiple human rights.
 
The recent floods in East Africa and Brazil, the scorching heat in South Asia and North Africa, and the acute drought in southern Africa and Central America are yet another tragic reminder of this. And, as always, vulnerable populations are hit hardest.
 
The WMO issues annual State of the Climate reports. These highlight the socio-economic impacts of climate change and extreme weather, with input from the International Organization, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, World Food Programme, World Health Organization and more.
 
2023 was the warmest year on record. That trend continues in 2024.
 
Displacement: Weather and climate change impacts trigger new, prolonged, and secondary displacement. They increase the vulnerability of people who were already uprooted by conflict and violence.
 
At the end of 2023, almost 3 in 4 forcibly displaced people were living in countries with high-to-extreme exposure to climate-related hazards, according to UNHCR.
 
Somalia is just one example: More than 530 000 displacements were recorded related to a prolonged drought in 2023, in addition to more than 650 000 displacements primarily caused by conflict. Subsequent flooding during the October–December rainy season affected more than 2.4 million individuals, displacing over 1 million people, according to UNHCR.
 
Food insecurity is on the increase. The number of people who are acutely food insecure worldwide has more than doubled, from 149 million people before the COVID-19 pandemic to 333 million and people in 2023, according to WFP. In 2022, 9.2% of the global population, or over 735 million people, were acutely undernourished.
 
Protracted conflicts, economic downturns, high food prices are at the root of high global food insecurity levels. This is aggravated by naturally occurring phenomena like El Nino and La Nina and long-term climate change the effects of climate and weather extremes.
 
In southern Africa, for example, the passage of Cyclone Freddy in February 2023 affected Madagascar, Mozambique, southern Malawi, and Zimbabwe. Flooding inflicted severe damage on crops and the economy. The same pattern was repeated in East Africa and Brazil this year.
 
Climate and health are inextricable linked. Extreme weather like floods and tropical cyclones have a cascading impact. They destroy health facilities, kill or injure people, or accentuate water-borne diseases like cholera and mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. Poor air quality causes millions of premature deaths every year.
 
Heat is a silent killer taking up to half a million lives a year. Temperatures of nearly 50°C are being recorded more and more frequently. This is not livable, and hundreds of millions of people are suffering both indoors and outdoors. Dangerous heat makes people sick and putting immense strain on hospitals, on communities, and families. It means that schools are closed, denying children the right to education.
 
Climate change is sabotaging people’s health and setting back public health progress. This is not the future we want for our children. Our children have the right to live and thrive on a sustainable and healthy planet.
 
The cost of climate action now is so much cheaper than the cost of in-action to our future. There is hope. The transition to renewable energy can offer us a cleaner, healthier future. It can improve basic socio-economic rights – the right to development.
 
Renewable energy sources are available almost everywhere, making energy access more equitable and allowing countries to develop their economies. Currently, more than half of Africa people lack the access to electricity, but Africa continent possesses some of the world’s greatest potential for solar power generation. Such potential holds the key to alleviate poverty and support socio-economic development.
 
Every dollar of investment in Renewables creates three times more jobs than the fossil fuel industry. Energy transition could create a total of more than 30 million jobs by 2030.
 
Ensuring just transition, placing the needs and rights of people at the heat of the energy transition, will be paramount to make sure no one is left behind.
 
http://wmo.int/media/news/climate-change-undermines-human-rights
 
27 June 2024
 
Tens of thousands of people hospitalised in Pakistan and India during extreme heatwave. (BBC World News)
 
As the temperatures rose in southern Pakistan, so did the body count. The Edhi ambulance service says it usually takes around 30 to 40 people to the Karachi city morgue daily. But over the last six days, it has collected some 568 bodies - 141 of them on Tuesday alone.
 
It is too early to say exactly what the cause of death was in every case. However, the rising numbers of dead came as temperatures in Karachi soared above 40C (104F), with the high humidity making it feel as hot as 49C, reports said.
 
Doctors in Karachi “treated thousands of victims of heatstroke at various hospitals”, the Associated Press reported.
 
Civil Hospital Karachi admitted 267 people with heatstroke between Sunday and Wednesday, said Dr Imran Sarwar Sheikh, head of the emergency department. Twelve of them have died so far.
 
“Most of the people who we saw coming into the hospital were in their 60s or 70s, though there were some around 45 and even a couple in their 20s,” Dr Sheikh told the BBC. Symptoms including vomiting, diarrhoea and a high fever. “Many of those we saw had been working outside.”
 
The high temperatures began at the weekend. Heatwave centres and camps were set up to try to provide relief to the public. Not all those who needed help made it to hospital.
 
Wasim Ahmed knew he wasn’t feeling well when he arrived home. The 56-year-old security guard had just finished a 12 hour overnight shift outside. Even then, he had found the temperatures too much.
 
“He came through the door and said I can’t deal with this hot weather,” Adnan Zafar, Wasim’s cousin, told the BBC. “He asked for a glass of water. Soon after he finished it, he collapsed.” By the time Wasim’s family got him to hospital, the medics said he had already died of a suspected heart attack.
 
Karachi is not the only part of Pakistan that is struggling to cope. Last month, the province of Sindh - of which Karachi is the capital - recorded an almost record-breaking temperature of 52.2C, according to Reuters.
 
Pakistan's neighbours have been suffering from extreme, deadly temperatures in recent weeks as well. In India, the capital Delhi has been enduring an “unprecedented” heatwave, with daily temperatures reaching 46 and 47 degrees Celsius on multiple days over the last few weeks and topping at a record-breaking 49.1C. Hundreds of people have died in heat-related incidents across the country, with tens of thousands more needing hospitalisation.
 
Experts agree these sorts of extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense as a result of climate change.
 
http://wmo.int/topics/heatwave http://wmo.int/content/climate-change-and-heatwaves


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Majority of world’s population impacted by extreme heat caused by human-induced climate change
by Climate Central, IFRC, World Weather Attribution
 
28 May 2024 (IFRC)
 
The Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, World Weather Attribution and Climate Central have released a report looking at the role climate change played in increasing the number of extreme heat days around the world over the last twelve months.
 
It was already known that 2023 was the hottest on record. The report confirmed that almost all the world’s population was affected by extreme heat days caused by human-induced climate change. Across all places in the world, an average of 26 days were ‘excess’ extreme heat days which would probably not have occurred without climate change.
 
There is an ongoing extreme heatwave in Asia – across Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, Malaysia and The Philippines. Across Bangladesh alone, the extreme heat has hit 57 of 64 districts, well over 120 million people. In Myanmar an extreme temperature of 48.2°C was recorded on 28 April – the highest ever in the country. In Nepal, the city of Nepalgunj is in the grip of weeks of temperatures of more than 40°C. There have been long-lasting recent heatwaves this year across swathes of Africa too.
 
Extreme heat is known to have killed tens of thousands of people over the last 12 months, but the real number is likely in the hundreds of thousands or even millions. Unlike sudden ‘event’ weather disasters, heatwaves kill more slowly and less obviously; they are often exacerbators of pre-existing medical conditions. Heatwaves hit the vulnerable the hardest – the young, the old, the poor and those obliged to work outdoors.
 
Aditya Bahadur, Director of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre said:
 
“This report provides overwhelming scientific evidence that extreme heat is a deadly manifestation of the climate crisis. This wreaks havoc on human health, critical infrastructure, the economy, agriculture and the environment, thereby eroding gains in human development and decreasing wellbeing- especially for poor and marginalized communities in the global South.”
 
http://www.climatecentral.org/report/climate-change-and-the-escalation-of-global-extreme-heat
 
May 2024
 
As 12 months of record heat stack up, scientists unpack the impacts around the globe, by Tyne Logan and Tom Saunders for ABC News
 
A new report by a team of international climate scientists shows the staggering amount of extreme heat days each country across the globe experienced last year, with the majority made more likely by human-induced climate change.
 
It comes as the world hits an alarming climate milestone, with data showing last month was the hottest May on record, marking what has now been 12 consecutive months of unprecedented global heat.
 
Australian National University professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, who specialises in extreme heat, said it served as a stark "wake-up call" on how severe things were becoming.
 
"Last year was our hottest year on record and, to some extent, that was no surprise," Dr Perkins-Kirkpatrick said. "But it's the fact that each month has stacked up on top of each other, and we've not had one month below the record, that has been quite surprising."
 
To better understand what has played out on the ground during those record months, a team of researchers from Climate Central, in collaboration with Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and World Weather Attribution, analysed how many days of unusually hot weather each country experienced over the last year.
 
Using real-time climate attribution methods, they were also able to say how many days were made more likely by climate change.
 
It found human-caused climate change added 26 more days of extreme heat, on average, across all places in the world, to what there would have been without a warmed planet.
 
In some places, nearly half the year was spent under unusually hot conditions, including parts of South and Central America, and south-east Asia.
 
In Ecuador, for example, the average person experienced 180 days of extreme heat above their local level during the past year, according to the analysis. Without the influence of climate change, it found that number would have been 10.
 
Climate Central vice-president for science Andrew Pershing said the figures illustrated the "huge burden" the burning of fossil fuels imposed on people around the world.
 
"Different countries are each having their own story, and that's one of the things we tried to highlight in the report," Dr Pershing said. "In Africa it's just day after day after day of climate change just beating down on that continent."
 
An extreme heat day is one that is warmer than 90 per cent of all observed temperatures at the site from 1991-2020.
 
Dr Pershing said this was considered the point at which heat became particularly dangerous, with increases in temperature-related hospitalisations.
 
He said having the past 30 years as the baseline also meant the extreme heat was out of the ordinary even within the context of the climate people were used to.
 
While the report only looked at days of extreme heat, Dr Pershing said they had also seen the impact of global warming play out in intense rainfall and drought events.
 
In April, the desert city of Dubai recorded more than a year's worth of rainfall within 24 hours, flooding airport runways and motorways. And Mexico is currently in the grip of a severe heatwave.
 
A look at the global air temperature over the past year shows just how easily records have been set, even when compared to our modern-day climate. During the latest month, May, the average near-surface air temperature was 0.65 Celsius above the 1991-2020 baseline average, according to Copernicus's data, easily overtaking the previous record set in 2020.
 
When compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900), the month was 1.53C above average, breaching the Paris Agreement target of 1.5C for the 11th consecutive month.
 
And it is not just air temperatures that remain off the charts. May 2024 also saw a continuation of record-warm global sea surface temperatures, extending the run of unprecedented oceanic heat to 14 months in a row.
 
The hot May means the past 12 months are now also a record at 1.63C above pre-industrial levels, and ensures that, on its current trajectory, 2024 is now likely to surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record.
 
The onset of El Nino weather pattern has been flagged as a major year-to-year climate driver that has helped boost global temperatures into record territory.
 
But climate scientists say by far the most significant contributor is rising greenhouse gas emissions, caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, which have been responsible for approximately 1.1C of warming from 1850-1900 to 2021. Year on year, carbon emissions are still rising overall around the globe.
 
It has meant years of record heat have now become a frequent occurrence for the globe. Each of the top 10 hottest years on record occurred in the past decade, while the coldest 10 on record all occurred more than 100 years ago — something Dr Perkins-Kirkpatrick points out should not happen.
 
"In a stable climate, record-hot years and record-cold years should statistically be occurring with the same probability, but that's not what's happening," she said.
 
"So the fact that these heat events just keep on being broken — they light up like Christmas trees every year — is just showing the underlying stress the global climate is in."
 
The latest line of heat records has been met with a response that climate scientists have made many times before. They say to stop records from tumbling the world needs to stop burning coal, oil, and natural gas.
 
"These records will continue to be broken for some time, particularly if we don't reduce our emissions quickly." said Dr Perkins-Kirkpatrick.
 
But Dr Perkins-Kirkpatrick said it had now reached a point where adaption to heat extremes was also necessary.
 
"We need to be really realistic and pragmatic of what we can achieve and in the time frame that we can achieve it," she said. "So we must also be looking at adaptation more seriously than we ever have before. "And the longer we leave that, the worse that becomes."
 
http://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-made-the-deadly-heatwaves-that-hit-millions-of-highly-vulnerable-people-across-asia-more-frequent-and-extreme/ http://www.worldweatherattribution.org/analysis/heatwave/ http://wmo.int/media/news/global-temperature-record-streak-continues-climate-change-makes-heatwaves-more-extreme http://www.climatechangenews.com/2024/05/30/developing-countries-need-support-adapting-to-deadly-heat/ http://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-off-to-a-record-warm-start/
 
May 2023
 
Global warming of 2.7 degrees will expose at least 2 billion people to ‘dangerous heat’ by end of century. (Global Systems Institute, Nanjing University, agencies)
 
At least 2 billion people will be exposed to dangerously hot temperatures by the end of this century if the world reaches 2.7 degrees celsius of global warming, according to new research that outlines the human cost of climate change.
 
Reducing global warming from 2.7 to 1.5 degrees celsius, as sought under the Paris Agreement, could reduce the population exposed to unprecedented heat – those living under an average annual temperature of 29 degrees or higher, five-fold, protecting a sixth of the world’s population by 2100, according to the study by researchers at the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and Nanjing University.
 
Compared to previous studies, which often estimated the cost of global warming in financial terms, this study highlights “the phenomenal human cost of failing to tackle the climate emergency”, according to Tim Lenton, professor and director of the Global Systems Institute.
 
“For every 0.1 degree of warming above present levels, about 140 million more people will be exposed to dangerous heat,” said Lenton. “This reveals both the scale of the problem and the importance of decisive action to reduce carbon emissions.”
 
The study starkly detailed how the narrow subset of earth’s inhabitable climate, the “human climate niche”, is rapidly shrinking, putting millions in the future at risk.
 
The idea of climate niches identifies the climate conditions in which human societies have thrived throughout history. The study found most people lived in places with mean annual temperatures spread around 13C or 25C. Conditions outside those are too hot, too cold or too dry and associated with higher death rates, lower food production and lower economic growth.
 
“The climate niche describes where people flourish and have flourished for centuries, if not millennia in the past,” Lenton said. “When people are outside the niche, they don’t flourish.”
 
Prof. Marten Scheffer from the Wageningen University, in the Netherlands, and a senior author of the study said: “We were surprised how sharply limited humans have remained when it comes to their distribution relative to climate – this is a fundamental thing we’ve put our finger on.”
 
The scientists used climate and population models to examine likely future changes in the number of people outside the climate niche, which they defined as above an annual average temperature of 29C.
 
About 600 million people, or 9 per cent of the current world population, are already exposed to dangerous heat conditions, the researchers found. If global warming reaches 3.6 degrees celcuis, half of the world’s population could be left outside the climate niche, posing what the researchers call an “existential risk”.
 
“The vast majority of people set to be left outside the niche due to future warming will be exposed to dangerous heat,” said Xu Chi, professor of Nanjing University who co-authored the paper.
 
Such high temperatures have been linked to issues including increased mortality, decreased labour productivity, decreased cognitive performance, impaired learning, adverse pregnancy outcomes, decreased crop yield, increased conflict and spread of infectious diseases, he said.
 
The study also highlighted the inequity of climate crisis, as those living in the lowest emitting areas today could be at the highest risk to dangerous heat.
 
At 2.7 degrees, almost 100 per cent of some countries including Burkina Faso and Mali will be dangerously hot for humans, the study found. India and Nigeria will be the two countries with the greatest population exposed at this level of global warming, over 600 million and over 300 million, respectively. Other countries that would be severely affected by high temperatures include Indonesia, the Philippines and Pakistan.
 
Lenton said the study emphasised the “huge inequality” of the climate emergency with those people with low emissions suffering the greatest changes in extreme heat exposure.
 
The study also found that the lifetime emissions of 3.5 average global citizens today – or just 1.2 US citizens – can expose one future person to dangerous heat.
 
The researchers hoped their study can help bridge the gap of people’s current understanding of climate change, and work as a firm reminder of the urgent need for decisive action to rapidly reduce carbon emissions.
 
These new findings “should inspire a policy sea-change in thinking around the urgency of decarbonisation efforts", said Ashish Ghadiali of Global Systems Institute.
 
Dr Richard Klein, at the Stockholm Environment Institute in Sweden, and not part of the team, said: “What this study shows very well is the direct human suffering that climate change could cause – living outside the niche means suffering due to an unbearably hot and possibly humid climate.
 
Dr Laurence Wainwright at the University of Oxford, UK, said: “Humans have got used to living in particular areas at certain temperatures. When things change, serious problems arise, whether in terms of physical health, mental health, crime and social unrest.”
 
Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Nino event, according to the World Meteorological Organization last week. El Nino brings hotter and drier weather with it and already some countries in Asia have seen record temperatures in April. Next week some cities in India are predicted to reach 45C.
 
http://news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of-environment-science-and-economy/limiting-global-warming-to-1-5c-would-save-billions-from-dangerously-hot-climate/ http://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01132-6
 
Oct. 2022
 
New Unicef report finds that in even best-case scenario 2 billion children will face four to five dangerous heat events annually by 2050.
 
The climate crisis is also a children’s rights crisis: one in four children globally are already affected by the climate emergency and by 2050 virtually every child in every region will face more frequent heatwaves, according to a new Unicef report.
 
For hundreds of millions of children, heatwaves will also last longer and be more extreme, increasing the threat of death, disease, hunger and forced migration.
 
The findings come less than a fortnight before the Cop27 UN climate talks get underway in Egypt, and after a catastrophic year of extreme weather events – heatwaves, storms, floods, fires and droughts – have demonstrated the speed and magnitude of the climate breakdown facing the planet.
 
According to Unicef, 559 million children currently endure at least four to five dangerous heatwaves annually, but the number will quadruple to 2 billion by 2050 – even if global heating is curtailed to 1.7 degrees, currently the best-case scenario on the table.
 
In the worst-case scenario – a 2.4-degree rise caused by burning too many fossil fuels for too long – an estimated 94% of children will be exposed to prolonged heatwaves lasting at least 4.7 days by 2050 compared with one in four children right now.
 
Children and infants are less able to regulate their body temperature, making them more vulnerable to the pervasive impacts of extreme and prolonged heat than adults. This includes a myriad of health problems such as asthma, cardiovascular diseases and even death.
 
Additionally, as intense heat exacerbates drought, it can also reduce access to food and water, which can stunt development and increase exposure to violence and conflict if families are forced to migrate. Studies have also shown that extreme heat negatively affects children’s concentration and learning abilities.
 
“While the full force of the climate crisis will take some time to materialise, for heatwaves it is just around the corner and looking incredibly grim,” said Nicholas Rees, the Unicef environment and climate expert.
 
Unicef’s report, The Coldest Year of the Rest of Their Lives, is a call to action for political leaders who continue to dither and pander to big business interests, even though the past seven years have been the hottest on record.
 
From the polar regions to the tropics, dangerous heatwaves are increasing in frequency, duration and magnitude, and already kill almost half a million people each year.
 
This year alone, heatwaves in China dried up rivers and damaged crops, while temperatures hit 48C (118F) in Pakistan before unprecedented rains left a third of the country underwater. Record-breaking temperatures throughout Europe led to tens of thousands of preventable deaths and drastically reduced crop yields, while more than 100 million Americans were under heat advisories over the summer. In Africa drought and failed rains have dramatically impacted the lives of some 50 million people. The hotter the planet gets, the more catastrophic will be the consequences.
 
“The climate shocks of 2022 provide a strong wakeup call about the increasing danger hurtling towards us,” said Vanessa Nakate, climate activist and UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador. “Heatwaves are a clear example. As hot as this year has been in almost every corner of the world, it will likely be the coldest year of the rest of our lives. The dial is being turned up on our planet and yet our world leaders haven’t begun to sweat. The only option is for us to continue to turn up the heat - on them - to correct the course we are on. World leaders must do this at COP27 for children everywhere, but especially the most vulnerable children in the most affected places. Unless they take action, and soon, this report makes it clear that heatwaves will become even harsher than they are already destined to be.”
 
Given that within three decades virtually every child will be exposed to extreme heat even under the best-case fossil fuel reduction pledges, Unicef is calling on governments to cut emissions faster and further, and help communities prepare for what is coming.
 
“We have to expand funding for adaptation as the impact depends on the coping capacities of families and communities … Having access to shelter, water and air conditioning will mean life or death,” Rees said.
 
“The mercury is rising and so are the impacts on children,” UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said. “Already, 1 in 3 children live in countries that face extreme high temperatures and almost 1 in 4 children are exposed to high heatwave frequency, and it is only going to get worse. More children will be impacted by longer, hotter and more frequent heatwaves over the next thirty years, threatening their health and wellbeing. How devastating these changes will be depends on the actions we take now. At a minimum, governments must urgently limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius and double adaptation funding by 2025. This is the only way to save children’s lives and futures – and the future of the planet.”
 
Heatwaves are especially damaging to children, as they are less able to regulate their body temperature compared to adults. The more heatwaves children are exposed to, the greater the chance of health problems including chronic respiratory conditions, asthma, and cardiovascular diseases. Babies and young children are at the greatest risk of heat-related mortality.
 
Heatwaves can also affect children’s environments, their safety, nutrition and access to water, and their education and future livelihood.
 
The report found high heatwave duration currently impacts 538 million, or 23 per cent of, children globally. This will rise to 1.6 billion children in 2050 at 1.7 degrees warming, and to at least 1.9 billion children at 2.4 degrees warming, emphasising the importance of urgent and dramatic emissions mitigation and adaptation measures to contain global heating and protect lives.
 
Millions more children will be exposed to high heatwave severity and extreme high temperatures depending on the degree of global heating reached. To avoid climate catastrophe we must drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and keep to 1.5 degrees Celsius warming pledge.
 
Yet alarmingly, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to rise by 14% this decade, putting us on a path to catastrophic global heating. All governments must revisit their national climate plans and policies to increase ambition and action. They must cut emissions by at least 45% by 2030 to keep heating to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
 
http://www.unicef.org/press-releases/heatwaves-report http://www.unicef.org/reports/coldest-year-rest-of-their-lives-children-heatwaves http://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129852 http://www.savethechildren.net/news/report-one-three-children-globally-face-double-threat-high-climate-risk-and-crushing-poverty
 
Oct. 2022
 
Heatwaves account for some of the deadliest disasters and are intensifying, warn the IFRC and the UN humanitarian relief agency.
 
Record high temperatures this year—which are fueling catastrophes in Somalia, Pakistan and around the world—foreshadow a future with deadlier, more frequent and more intense heat-related humanitarian emergencies, a new report warns.
 
Extreme Heat: Preparing for the heatwaves of the future says that, with climate change making heatwaves ever more dangerous, aggressive steps must be taken now to avert potentially recurrent heat disasters.
 
“As the climate crisis goes unchecked, extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and floods, are hitting the most vulnerable people the hardest,” says Martin Griffiths, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. “Nowhere is the impact more brutally felt than in countries already reeling from hunger, conflict and poverty.”
 
The report—the first to be published jointly by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)—offers concrete steps that humanitarians and decision makers can take to mitigate extreme heat’s worst effects. 2022 has already seen communities across North Africa, Europe, South Asia and the Middle East suffocate under record-high temperatures. Most recently the Western United States and China have buckled under severe heat.
 
The report, notes that, in the coming decades, heatwaves are predicted to meet and exceed human physiological and social limits in regions such as the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and South and South-West Asia. Extreme heatwaves in these regions, where humanitarian needs are already high, would result in large-scale suffering and loss of life, population movements and further entrenched inequality, the report warns.
 
“The climate crisis is intensifying humanitarian emergencies all around the world. To avert its most devastating impacts, we must invest equally on adaptation and mitigation, particularly in the countries most at risk,” says Jagan Chapagain, Secretary General of the IFRC.
 
Heatwaves prey on inequality, with the greatest impacts on isolated and marginalized people. The report stresses that the urgent priority must be large and sustained investments that mitigate climate change and support long-term adaptation for the most vulnerable people.
 
The report also finds that, although the impacts of extreme heat are global, some people are hit harder than others. Vulnerable communities, such as agricultural workers, are being pushed to the front lines while the elderly, children, and pregnant and breastfeeding women are at higher risk of illness and death.
 
The world’s lowest-income countries are already experiencing disproportionate increases in extreme heat. These countries are the least to blame for climate change, but they will see a significant increase in the number of at-risk people in the coming decades.
 
“Heatwaves account for some of the deadliest disasters on record,” Martin Griffiths told reporters in Geneva.
 
“Devastating droughts like the one pushing Somalia to the brink of famine are made far deadlier when they combine with extreme heat. We can expect more of these in the future,” he added.
 
Scientists have repeatedly stressed the need to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), warning that crossing that threshold risks unleashing far more severe climate change effects on people, wildlife and ecosystems.
 
“Under 2°C of warming, an extreme-heat event is projected to be nearly 14 times as likely and to bring heat and humidity levels that are far more dangerous,” the report by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the Red Cross said.
 
“On current trajectories, heatwaves could meet and exceed these physiological and social limits in the coming decades, including in regions such as the Sahel, and South and South-West Asia,” it added.
 
The effects of recurrent heatwaves would include “large scale suffering and loss of life”, population movements and increased inequality, the report warned, adding that these trends were “already emerging”.
 
“It’s grossly unjust that fragile countries must bear deadly loss and damage from extreme heat when they are unambiguously and clearly and evidently the least responsible for climate change,” said Griffiths.
 
“Wealthier countries have the resources to help their people adapt and have made promises to do so. Poorer countries who are not responsible for these torturous heatwaves do not have those resources.”
 
The organisations’ report called on governments to urgently take “aggressive steps” to prevent a future of recurrent heat disasters.
 
“The single most important arena for action is in slowing and stopping climate change,” it said.
 
“Limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C could result in up to 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heatwaves and around 65 million fewer people being frequently exposed to ‘exceptional’ heatwaves.”
 
http://www.ifrc.org/press-release/heatwaves-account-some-deadliest-disasters-and-are-intensifying-warn-ifrc-and-un http://reliefweb.int/report/world/extreme-heat-preparing-heatwaves-future-october-2022 http://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129407
 
July 2022 (WMO)
 
Extreme heat in western Europe is causing devastating wildfires in France and Spain, unprecedented drought in Italy and Portugal, and the United Kingdom recorded its highest-ever temperature of just over 40 degrees Celsius during Tuesday, at London’s Heathrow airport.
 
With temperatures expected to remain above normal until the middle of next week, the World Metrological Organization (WMO) warned that heatwaves will occur more and more frequently, into the 2060s.
 
The pattern is linked to the observed warming of the planet that can be attributed to human activity, raising serious concerns for the planet’s future, the UN weather agency said.
 
Harvests at risk
 
“We are expecting to see major impacts on agriculture. During the previous heatwaves in Europe, we lost big parts of harvest. And under the current situation - we are already having the global food crisis because of the war in Ukraine - this heatwave is going to have a further negative impact on agricultural activities”, warned Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the WMO at a press conference to launch the latest extreme weather findings, in Geneva.
 
“The negative trend in climate will continue at least until the 2060s, independent of our success in climate mitigation”, Mr. Taalas added. “We have already lost the game concerning the melting of glaciers. We expect that the melting of glaciers will continue for the coming hundreds of years or even coming thousands of years… Sea level rise will continue for the same period”.
 
The heatwave also acts as a kind of atmospheric lid, WHO explained, trapping pollutants, and degrading air quality, with adverse health consequences, particularly for vulnerable people such as the elderly. In the major 2003 heatwave in Europe, some 70,000 people died.
 
“Climate change is affecting our health in many ways, not only by heatwaves which are having direct consequences” but also other areas of essential healthcare, such as rising levels of disease, alerted Maria Neira, Director for public and environmental health at WHO.
 
She explained that reliable access to food and water is at stake, as with agricultural production levels at risk, “and there will be water scarcity for sure”.
 
She said that 99% of the global population is breathing air that does not meet the health standards set by WHO, hugely impacting chronic respiratory and cardiovascular conditions.
 
“The best solution to this will be, again, being very ambitious on tackling the causes of this global warming. “We have been alerting for a long time that climate change is affecting very much human health”, she emphasized, which will also impact the struggle to reach net zero carbon emissions, and the crucial transition to clean, renewable sources of energy.
 
More deaths among the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions are feared due to the ongoing heatwave in the weeks ahead, and subsequent challenges to health systems, to keep up with rising demand.
 
http://news.un.org/en/story/2022/07/1122822 http://reliefweb.int/report/world/multilateral-efforts-needed-reverse-climate-crisis-secretary-general-says-stressing-choice-between-collective-action-or-collective-suicide http://www.theguardian.com/weather/2023/apr/19/severe-heatwave-asia-deaths-schools-close-india-china http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150083/heatwaves-and-fires-scorch-europe-africa-and-asia http://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-issues-first-national-drought-alert-battles-save-crops-extreme-heatwave-2022-08-19/ http://news.cornell.edu/stories/2022/07/extreme-heat-exposure-worsens-child-malnutrition
 
July 2022
 
Heat-related deaths on the rise worldwide. (Human Rights Watch)
 
As extreme heat warnings are being issued across Europe, over 1,100 people are thought to have died due to the ongoing heatwave in southern Europe. People with disabilities and older people are among those at particular risk of heat-related illness and death, a Human Rights Watch report about the impact of a heatwave in the Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) between June 25 and July 1 last year found. This heatwave killed hundreds of people. Many of the deaths would have been preventable.
 
In Australia, heatwaves have caused more deaths in the past 200 years than any other natural hazard. And as April temperatures hit nearly 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) in parts of northern India and Pakistan, at least 90 people died from heat-related causes. There is little doubt that climate change means heatwaves will increase in intensity and frequency.
 
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report published last April shows it is still possible to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as needed to prevent the worst outcomes of climate change. However, it will require “rapid and deep” emissions cuts across all sectors, and government’s current track record is not promising.
 
Average annual greenhouse gas emissions from 2010-2019 were higher than in any previous decade, with fossil fuels and industry responsible for the largest growth in emissions. Meanwhile, government commitments to reduce emissions are not ambitious enough, implementation efforts are falling even further behind what is needed, and financing for fossil fuels is still greater than for climate adaptation and mitigation.
 
Given the foreseeable rise of extreme heatwaves, and the impact on populations, governments should have a clear plan to prevent future heat-related deaths and manage other severe health risks associated with heatwaves. Failing to take more ambitious climate action and a strengthening of rights-respecting climate policies will mean young people alive today are going to experience catastrophic warming this century and many more lives will be at risk.
 
http://www.hrw.org/news/2022/07/21/protecting-people-extreme-heat http://www.hrw.org/news/2022/05/27/one-year-deadly-heatwave-canada-protections-still-needed http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/04/climate-breakdown-supercharging-extreme-weather http://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-5 http://www.thelancet.com/countdown-health-climate http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01480-5/fulltext http://climateanalytics.org/publications/2022/responsibility-of-major-emitters-for-country-level-warming-and-extreme-hot-years/


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