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	Let’s Avoid Food Riots by Nayan Chanda Yale Global   The thousands of protesters who assembled in New Delhi in the last week of February to demand lower food prices have gone back and the feverish rise in prices seems to have cooled. Officials may be heaving a sigh of relief, but the relief may only be temporary. Food insecurity may become the new normal not just in India, but for the world. While the problem is global, however, it is national governments who need to deal with hunger and food riots.   Just three years ago, when skyrocketing price of food led to riots in some 30 countries, the G-20 nations pledged to set up a $22-billion World Bank fund to help step up food production in vulnerable areas. The bank has received barely 20 per cent of that amount. This past month, world food prices have surpassed 2008 levels, prompting the United Nations (UN) to sound the alarm. Debates flared again as to who to blame. Some charged the diversion of corn and other food crops to produce ethanol as the cause of the price hike, while others blamed speculators in grain futures funded by cheap credit, hoarding by countries, rising price of oil and transportation, and, of course, a series of droughts and floods affecting major food producers.   All of these explanations are elements of a much more complex reality. To be sure, the US Congress’s decision to subsidise ethanol production in a misguided bid for energy independence has resulted in a third of American corn being diverted. As the US supplies nearly two-thirds of world’s corn, the 90 per cent rise in its price in 2010 has put pressure on other grains. Former US President Bill Clinton recently warned that over-emphasis on corn-based ethanol could lead to food riots. Not so, says the ethanol lobby. “The driver behind rising food prices,” they said, “has been and remains oil.”   It is ironic that the recent rise in oil prices has been propelled by the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which itself was fuelled partly by high food prices. Egypt is among the world’s largest grain importers and other countries in the MENA rely heavily (80 per cent in case of Libya) on imported food as well. Now they are all trying to build up buffer stock against future unrest. With the price of oil surging to $120 a barrel, the effect on food inputs — from fertiliser and irrigation to transportation — will be significant. As prices rise, there is a pell-mell rush by other importing countries to build up reserve stocks of food from rice to oil seeds.   The US Federal Reserve has also been held responsible for encouraging speculation and driving up prices through its aggressive near-zero interest stimulus plan. Hedge funds, taking advantage of the easy money on offer, have moved aggressively in betting on commodities. Ben Bernanke refutes the charge by pointing to the growing demand for food from the developing world as the main cause behind the rise in prices. He is right, up to a point. Per capita meat consumption in newly prosperous countries such as China has indeed grown, requiring more feedstock.   But all of the above and other factors being cited provide only partial explanations requiring piecemeal solutions. The fact is that with nearly a quarter million new mouths coming to the world’s table every day, we need ever-increasing supply of food. But with the basic factors for food production — cultivable land, water and climate — facing long-term threat, shortage is shaping up to be a systemic problem.   While croplands are being lost to industry and feedstock farming, fresh water — needed to produce food — is running out. In a new book World On the Edge, Lester Brown points out that 70 per cent of world’s agriculture depends on irrigation. Yet because of reckless use of non-renewable fossil aquifers, water tables are falling in as many as 20 countries, including China, India and the US — the three countries that grow half the world’s grain.   Meanwhile, unchecked global warming risks are causing a drastic drop in food production. The sharp rise in atmospheric moisture, long predicted by climate scientists as a consequence of global warming, has already been producing extreme weather patterns of massive drought and floods in several parts of the world, destroying crops.   It is high time the governments adopted a global concerted approach on how to feed the planet rather than to lurch from one crisis to another.
	East African drought crisis ominous warning of effect of climate change by UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs   June 2011   2011 is the driest year in Eastern Africa in more than 15 years. According to the latest OCHA humanitarian report, drought remains a major threat in this area with no likelihood of improvement until early 2012. Worst-affected countries include Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti.   Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia experienced poor rainfall from March to May, which resulted in scarce pasture and increased water shortages. Food insecurity in these areas is growing as the rains are insufficient to sustain either people or their livestock and adequately recharge water sources. Inflation rates across the region are on the increase, with Kenya recording 14% inflation, the highest in two years, which is expected to increase further.   The number of people in acute livelihood crisis, about 10 million at present, is estimated to increase in the coming months. Overall food and nutritional conditions across pastoral and marginal agricultural areas will continue to deteriorate; late and below-average summer harvests are expected, as are early depletion of pasturelands and water, and continued high prices of food, water, and fuel.   In addition, due to reduced food reserves at household levels, the rate of school dropouts is increasing. In Ethiopia more than 280 schools remain closed as a result of the drought. Hygiene, sanitation, and health conditions are worsening as a result of the La Niña-induced drought, with increasing reports of waterborne diseases in Ethiopia.   Despite the drought and the threat to the livelihoods of millions in the region, emergency appeals throughout the region are only 51% funded. Funding gaps have been reported in all major humanitarian sectors. WFP is currently able to meet only one-third of the actual food needs in its areas of operation.   Apr 2011   Aid groups warn of worsening food crisis in Somalia. (Concern Worldwide; Danish Refugee Council & agencies)   With malnutrition and food prices rising, aid agencies issue urgent call for support. 2.4 million Somalis, almost a third of the country’s population, are currently living in crisis due to one of the worst droughts in recent memory, as well as due to the ongoing conflict. According to a coalition of 31 aid agencies, the recent drought has impacted the already volatile food security situation, killing livestock in huge numbers and leading to skyrocketing cereal prices in the country.   Rains expected in Somalia this year have so far been late, and inadequate for communities to recover from the drought’s impact. Although East Africa is prone to recurrent droughts, this year’s recent drought has been unusually severe. Precipitation for this season is forecasted to be below normal. Aid agencies warn that many Somalis risk losing their lives and livelihoods as the impact of the drought intensifies.   Dependent on the rainfall, crop production has been massively affected, as last season’s harvest failed. With poor households depending on locally produced cheaper cereals, another poor harvest would lead prices to skyrocket further. This would increase the price of survival, making the purchase of food extremely difficult for the vast majority of Somalis that live on less than a dollar a day.   “I have lost everything,” said Mohamed Ali, a pastoralist in Lower Shabelle Region along the coast. Only four months ago, Mohamed was a pastoralist with 250 cattle. His herd provided nutritious milk for his children, and income for his family. Today, the fields around his home are littered with dead carcasses. He is one of thousands of pastoralists that have lost their livelihoods, and become destitute.   One in four children are now suffering from acute malnutrition in the southern parts of Somalia which is the worst affected.   In some areas, malnutrition is affecting 30 percent of the population. This is one of the highest rates of malnutrition in the world, and double the threshold of an emergency. There are now 241,000 children acutely malnourished across Somalia.   The price of food continues to soar, and this trend is likely to continue for the coming months.   People are struggling to buy basic supplies as prices skyrocket. For the poorest in Somalia, the worst affected by this drought, the situation is becoming unsustainable. With a major funding shortfall, aid agencies have insufficient resources to address the needs of those affected.   We are urging the international community to increase and diversify humanitarian funding to save lives, and to provide longer term funding for development, and to rebuild livelihoods lost to the drought.   March 2011   The number of people in need of emergency food aid in East Africa continues to increase as drought continues to ravage the region, the United Nations humanitarian arm reports.   Extremely poor rains from October to December have led to substantial harvest failure, a decrease in water availability, deteriorating pasture conditions and livestock losses in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda, a situation exacerbated by conflict, lack of access, high food prices and human and livestock diseases, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said.   The overwhelming majority of newly affected people, 1.2 million people, are Kenyan, according to the new multi-agency assessments.   Outbreaks of drought-related animal diseases have been recorded, with more than 5,000 livestock dying in Marsabit, Kenya, in January, a number that is still increasing. More than 10,000 Somali pastoralists have crossed the border into Kenya, while some 30,000 livestock and 10,000 pastoralists from Kenya have migrated to Uganda, OCHA said.   Cross-border migrations have also been reported from Kenya and Somalia into Ethiopia, leading to increased competition for scarce resources and creating the potential for resource-based conflicts with local host communities.   Acute malnutrition levels are increasing, with a recent survey in the Juba area of South Somalia recording 30 per cent acute malnutrition rates, double the emergency threshold, while rates of more than 25 per cent have been recorded in north-eastern Kenya and those in Djibouti are reaching 20 per cent in the worst affected areas.   “Of utmost concern are acute water shortages,” OCHA said, noting that Somalia is experiencing a severe water crisis throughout most of the country, while serious shortages in Ethiopia have affected the lives and livelihoods of millions in the Somali and Oromia regions.   The education sector has also been severely affected, as an increased number of school children and teachers have to migrate in search of pasture and water. In Somalia, more than 400 schools have closed due to the drought since December, affecting nearly 55,000 students. In Ethiopia, some 58,000 school drop-outs have been reported, primarily in the Somali and Oromia regions.   On a visit to Somalia and Kenya last month, the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos warned that the world must continue to pay attention to what is happening in East Africa.   “We must always make sure that people understand the human impact of these crises. Behind every statistic, there is a human face,” she said in Nairobi, Kenya’s capital. Visit the related web page
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