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	Future climate change “hotspots” may suffer chronic food problems by Philip Thornton Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)   Study reveals future “Hotspots” of risk for Hundreds of Millions whose Food Problems are on a Collision Course with Climate Change.   Scientists warn Disaster Looms for Parts of Africa and All of India if Chronic Food Insecurity converges with Crop-wilting Weather; Latin America also Vulnerable.   A new study has matched future climate change “hotspots” with regions already suffering chronic food problems to identify highly-vulnerable populations, chiefly in Africa and South Asia, but potentially in China and Latin America as well, where in fewer than 40 years, the prospect of shorter, hotter or drier growing seasons could imperil hundreds of millions of already-impoverished people.   The report, "Mapping Hotspots of Climate Change and Food Insecurity in the Global Tropics" (PDF) was produced by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). The work was undertaken by a team of scientists responding to an urgent need to focus climate change adaptation efforts on people and places where the potential for harsher growing conditions poses the gravest threat to food production and food security.   The researchers pinpointed areas of intense vulnerability by examining a variety of climate models and indicators of food problems to create a series of detailed maps. One shows regions around the world at risk of crossing certain “climate thresholds”—such as temperatures too hot for maize or beans—that over the next 40 years could diminish food production. Another shows regions that may be sensitive to such climate shifts because in general they have large areas of land devoted to crop and livestock production. And finally, scientists produced maps of regions with a long history of food insecurity.   “When you put these maps together they reveal places around the world where the arrival of stressful growing conditions could be especially disastrous,” said Polly Ericksen, a senior scientist at the CGIAR’s International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi, Kenya and the study’s lead author. “These are areas highly exposed to climate shifts, where survival is strongly linked to the fate of regional crop and livestock yields, and where chronic food problems indicate that farmers are already struggling and they lack the capacity to adapt to new weather patterns.”   “This is a very troubling combination,” she added.   For example, in large parts of South Asia, including almost all of India, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa—chiefly West Africa—there are 369 million food-insecure people living in agriculture-intensive areas that are highly exposed to a potential five percent decrease in the length of the growing period. Such a change over the next 40 years could significantly affect food yields and food access for people—many of them farmers themselves—already living on the edge.   Higher temperatures also could exact a heavy toll. Today, there are 56 million food-insecure and crop-dependent people in parts of West Africa, India and China who live in areas where, by the mid-2050s, maximum daily temperatures during the growing season could exceed 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit). This is close to the maximum temperature that beans can tolerate, while maize and rice yields may suffer when temperatures exceed this level. For example, a study last year in Nature found that even with optimal amounts of rain, African maize yields could decline by one percent for each day spent above 30ºC.   Regional predictions for shifts in temperatures and precipitation going out to 2050 were developed by analyzing the outputs of climate models rooted in the extensive data amassed by the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Researchers identified populations as chronically food-insecure if more than 40 percent of children under the age of five were “stunted”—that is, they fall well below the World Health Organization’s height-for-age standards.   “We are starting to see much more clearly where the effect of climate change on agriculture could intensify hunger and poverty, but only if we fail to pursue appropriate adaptation strategies,” said Patti Kristjanson, a research theme leader at CCAFS. “Farmers already adapt to variable weather patterns by changing their planting schedules or moving animals to different grazing areas. What this study suggests is that the speed of climate shifts and the magnitude of the changes required to adapt could be much greater. In some places, farmers might need to consider entirely new crops or new farming systems.”   Crop breeders at CGIAR centers around the world already are focused on developing so-called “climate ready” crop varieties able to produce high yields in more stressful conditions. For some regions, however, that might not be a viable option—in parts of East and Southern Africa, for example, temperatures may become too hot to maintain maize as the staple crop, requiring a shift to other food crops, such as sorghum or cassava, to meet nutrition needs. In addition, farmers who now focus mainly on crop cultivation might need to integrate livestock and agroforestry as a way to maintain and increase food production.   “International trade in agriculture commodities is also likely to assume even more importance for all regions as climate change intensifies the existing limits of national agriculture systems to satisfy domestic food needs,” said Bruce Campbell, director of CCAFS. “We have already seen with the food price spikes of 2008 and 2010 that food security is an international phenomenon and climate change is almost certainly going to intensify that interdependence.”   Ericksen and her colleagues note that regions of concern extend beyond those found to be most at risk. For example, in many parts of Latin America, food security is relatively stable at the moment—suggesting that a certain amount of “coping capacity” could be available to deal with future climate stresses that affect agriculture production. Yet there is cause for concern because millions of people in the region are highly dependent on local agricultural production to meet their food needs and they are living in the very crosshairs of climate change.   The researchers found, for example, that by 2050, prime growing conditions are likely to drop below 120 days per season in intensively-farmed regions of northeast Brazil and Mexico. Growing seasons of at least 120 days are considered critical not only for the maturation of maize and several other staple food crops, but also for vegetation crucial to feeding livestock.   In addition, parts of Latin America are likely to experience temperatures too hot for bean production, a major food staple in the region.   The study also shows that some areas today have a “low sensitivity” to the effects of climate change only because there is not a lot of land devoted to crop and livestock production. But agriculture intensification would render them more vulnerable, adding a wrinkle, for example, to the massive effort underway to rapidly expand crop cultivation in the so-called “bread-basket” areas of sub-Saharan Africa.   “Evidence suggests that these specific regions in the tropics may be severely affected by 2050 in terms of their crop production and livestock capacity. The window of opportunity to develop innovative solutions that can effectively overcome these challenges is limited,” said Philip Thornton, a CCAFS research theme leader and one of the paper’s co-authors. “Major adaptation efforts are needed now if we are to avoid serious food security and livelihood problems later.” Visit the related web page
	Any progress on OECD Anti-Bribery Convention is in danger of grinding to a halt by Transparency International   In 1999 leaders from OECD countries took supposedly a big step. They committed to holding their companies to account for their behaviour abroad. Until then, bribing abroad to win contracts had largely been tacitly accepted and was even a tax deductible expense in at least 14 OECD countries.   Twelve years on, progress with implementation of the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention is in danger of grinding to a halt. For seven years, Transparency International (TI) has monitored how well governments live up to their promises and enforce the OECD Convention. This year’s progress report, for the first time, shows no improvement in the number of countries enforcing the Convention, with the same countries in the same enforcement categories as in last year’s report.   By the end of 2010, the seven countries in the active enforcement category were known to have sanctioned at least 185 individuals and companies, but the other 30 countries, accounting for more than a third of world exports, are only known to have sanctioned 60.   Greater enforcement is badly needed. Bribery takes a heavy toll on developing countries, and on businesses and citizens alike.   Bribing to win business is a short-term strategy. Companies only win contracts as long as they can continue to pay the largest bribe, rather than competing on merit. In a 2008 Ernst & Young survey of more than 1,000 executives, almost one in five claimed to have lost business due to a competitor paying bribes.   Bribery ends up costing the tax payer. Whether for a contract to supply equipment to a hospital, the defence sector or build public infrastructure, TI research shows that corruption can add 20-25 per cent to the costs of government procurement.   In 2011, the OECD celebrates its 50th anniversary. The time is right to push for better anti-bribery enforcement. The OECD needs to increase the pressure on governments, and mobilise the political will needed to move from commitment to action in enforcing the Convention.   Setting a high standard will be important as more countries pledge to take on corruption: Russia and China passed anti-bribery rules this year, and India has ratified the UN Convention against Corruption, which requires prohibition of foreign bribery. (Whether it will be enforced is a completely different matter. As corruption is considered widespread in all 3 countries).   For any OECD Convention to work, companies must know that bribing will not just harm their reputation, but will lead to criminal punishment with heavy fines and jail time. Visit the related web page
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