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WFP warns rising food and fuel prices risk pushing global hunger higher
by UN News, WFP, FAO, OCHA, agencies
 
June 2026
 
Hormuz crisis sends shockwaves through global aid networks. (UN News)
 
What began as a geopolitical crisis in the Middle East nearly 100 days ago is increasingly becoming a food security crisis elsewhere, with UN agencies warning of rising hunger in Africa and malnourished children being turned away from medical clinics in Afghanistan.
 
Despite a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, sporadic hostilities and continued uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world's most important energy and shipping corridors – continue to reverberate through global supply chains, pushing up transport and fuel costs and straining aid operations already grappling with severe funding shortfalls.
 
Speaking at UN Headquarters in New York on Thursday, World Food Programme (WFP) Acting Executive Director Carl Skau said warnings issued earlier in the crisis about the knock-on effects of higher energy prices were now materialising in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries.
 
“Just to illustrate that what we warned against is now playing out in real time in many of these contexts,” he told reporters.
 
Several weeks ago, WFP warned that if oil prices remained above $100 a barrel through July, as many as 45 million additional people could be pushed into hunger because of the close relationship between energy and food prices.
 
That pressure is already mounting: an additional 2.5 million people in Somalia have become acutely food insecure, while a further 2.3 million people have been pushed into acute hunger in Afghanistan and another 1.3 million in Sri Lanka.
 
The drivers differ from country to country, Mr. Skau said, but include rising food prices, underfunded humanitarian responses and sharply higher operating costs that reduce the number of people aid agencies can reach with available resources. The longer-term outlook is equally troubling.
 
Mr. Skau warned that higher fertilizer costs may reduce agricultural productivity in east Africa during the coming planting season, echoing disruptions seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and raising the prospect of additional food shortages months from now.
 
The effects are increasingly visible in humanitarian supply chains.
 
The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warns that maritime diversions around the Cape of Good Hope are adding between two and four weeks to shipping times, while air freight capacity across Middle Eastern routes has tightened and congestion is spreading through ports in Africa and elsewhere.
 
“Increased transport costs mean less money for the lifesaving supplies children need,” said Jean-Cédric Meeus, UNICEF’s Chief of Global Transport and Logistics.
 
“What begins as a disruption to shipping lanes can spiral into a humanitarian crisis.”
 
According to UNICEF, air freight costs for vaccines shipped from India to Ethiopia, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have risen by up to 70 per cent. Trucking costs for lifesaving therapeutic food destined for Somalia, South Sudan and the DRC have also increased by a third. Sea freight costs for education materials bound for Yemen and Mozambique have surged by as much as 150 per cent.
 
UNICEF estimates that supply disruptions could delay critical humanitarian cargo by four to six months.
 
“For a child in a crisis zone, delays in arrival of vaccines or nutrition interventions can mean the difference between life and death,” Mr. Meeus warned.
 
Few places illustrate the cascading consequences more starkly than Afghanistan. Fresh from a visit to the country, Mr. Skau described witnessing hundreds of mothers carrying visibly malnourished children away from a rural health clinic near Jalalabad because nutrition supplies had run out.
 
The shortages stem from a combination of funding cuts and supply-chain disruptions that have complicated deliveries previously routed through neighbouring countries.
 
“I've never seen anything like it,” Mr. Skau said. “The desperation in that clinic is hard to describe.”
 
Afghanistan is simultaneously coping with economic pressures linked to the regional crisis and the return of some 2.8 million people deported or repatriated from neighbouring countries over the past year.
 
The humanitarian consequences are part of a broader economic shock. Before the escalation began on 28 February, roughly a fifth of global oil shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
 
Since then, disruptions have driven up crude oil prices and increased costs across transport networks and supply chains. Hundreds of vessels and tens of thousands of seafarers remain stranded.
 
A new analysis by the UN trade and development body, UNCTAD, warns that the burden is falling disproportionately on poorer countries.
 
Of 75 vulnerable economies studied, 65 are net oil importers. Together they are home to nearly one billion people, more than 30 per cent of whom live on less than $3 a day.
 
UNCTAD estimates that a sustained 50 per cent increase in refined oil prices would add more than $20 billion annually to their collective import bill. For some countries, including Mauritania, Gambia, Vanuatu, Maldives and Burkina Faso, the additional costs could exceed five per cent of national economic output.
 
The developments echo concerns previously raised by Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in April, when he warned that even under the most optimistic scenario, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would depress economic growth, increase inflation and disrupt global trade.
 
He cautioned that a prolonged crisis could push millions more people into poverty and hunger while reversing hard-won development gains.
 
The ceasefire – albeit fragile – has reduced fears of immediate military escalation. Yet many of the consequences outlined by Mr. Guterres are already emerging: higher food and transport costs, disrupted supply chains, mounting pressure on vulnerable economies and growing humanitarian needs.
 
As Mr. Skau put it, the consequences that agencies warned about weeks ago are now “playing out in real time.”
 
http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/06/1167653 http://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-warning-becomes-reality-millions-middle-east-crisis-pushes-poorest-families-further-hunger http://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/joint-news-release-wfpfaounicef-risk-famine-persists-nearly-195-million-people-face-acute-food-insecurity-sudan http://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/joint-press-release-un-agencies-warn-worsening-hunger-and-malnutrition-crisis-somalia-famine-risk-emerges http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/wfpfao-millions-trapped-deepening-hunger-crisis-drc-needs-far-outpace-humanitarian-response http://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/nigeria-2026-lean-season-unprecedented-food-and-nutrition-crisis-advocacy-note
 
http://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/wfp-scales-back-food-assistance-syria-amid-funding-shortfalls http://www.wfp.org/news/hunger-intensifies-south-sudan-78-million-people-face-high-acute-food-insecurity-and-22 http://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghan-women-and-children-pay-price-crises-converge-and-funding-shrinks http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/resources/countries-in-focus/en/ http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/countries-in-focus-archive/issue-152/en/ http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis http://www.wfp.org/stories/how-mideast-crisis-deepening-hunger-far-beyond-front-lines http://unctad.org/publication/strait-hormuz-disruptions-beyond-reopening-lasting-impacts-vulnerable-economies http://www.undp.org/press-releases/middle-east-conflict-fallout-pushes-countries-toward-us1-trillion-fossil-fuel-subsidy-bill-warns-un-development-programme
 
21 Apr. 2026
 
Strait of Hormuz: With hunger looming, life-saving fertilizer shipments cannot wait.
 
‘Immediate’ solution needed to restore fertilizer supply, says head of UN Taskforce established to facilitate the safe passage of fertilizers and related raw materials for humanitarian purposes.
 
Unless a solution can be found immediately to allow fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz in time for planting season, there’s going to be a “very significant and severe” food crisis which will hit the poorest countries and their citizens hardest.
 
That’s according to Jorge Moreira da Silva, Executive Director of the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), which provides infrastructure, procurement and project management services around the world.
 
He told Reem Abaza of UN News that the UN task force he is leading will be able to get its “one stop platform” up and running in just seven days, if combatants blocking the strait allow fertilizers and other raw material through, to benefit the world’s most vulnerable.
 
"We can't wait until everything has been fixed," he said in an exclusive interview with UN News. “The planting season has already started...So if we don't get some solution immediately the crisis will be very significant and severe, particularly for the poorest countries and for the poorest citizens."
 
Jorge Moreira da Silva: The idea of the task force was to develop a mechanism focused on fertilizers and related raw materials such as urea, sulphur, and ammonia, to prevent a massive humanitarian crisis.  We have one-third of all fertilizers in the world going through the Strait of Hormuz, so you can see how important the Persian Gulf is for the production of fertilizers and how impacted is the entire supply chain of fertilizers with the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.
 
We also know that there are some countries that are more dependent on those fertilizers. Unfortunately, some of those countries were already highly vulnerable due to previous shocks, such as Sudan, Somalia, Mozambique, Kenya, Sri Lanka. These are just a few countries that are high importers of fertilizers coming from the region.
 
UN News: We’re talking about a time-sensitive period because it is the agricultural season in some parts of the world, and not having fertilizers will have a huge effect on food security.
 
Jorge Moreira da Silva: The FAO and the World Food Programme have been very clear explaining the relevance of fertilizers for agriculture, yields and productivity. Fertilizers bring some components, some ingredients that allow the plants to grow faster and to have better productivity. This is particularly important in countries whose conditions are already fragile due to climate change. And we know also that if you don't get productivity on agriculture, you will have food insecurity, hunger and starvation.
 
The World Food Programme presented numbers that are very clear. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz can push at least 45 million more people into hunger and starvation. So clearly, we need to do something immediately..
 
http://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en http://news.un.org/en/interview/2026/04/1167351 http://soundcloud.com/unradio/strait-of-hormuz-immediate http://www.unops.org/news-and-stories/videos/unops-executive-director-on-pbs-newshour http://www.fao.org/el-nino/en http://theconversation.com/a-severe-el-nino-could-threaten-something-essential-to-half-of-humanity-rice-285816
 
* Humanitarian agencies call for humanitarian corridor through strait of Hormuz as Iran war hits vital aid. Soaring oil prices and the blockade are preventing food, fuel and medicine being delivered to millions of people in desperate need, say NGOs.
 
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/apr/29/humanitarian-corridor-strait-of-hormuz-iran-war-hits-vital-aid http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/05/1167422
 
Apr. 2026
 
The Heads of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank Group (WBG) and the World Food Programme (WFP) met to discuss the global economic and food security impacts of the war in the Middle East. They issued the following statement:
 
"The Middle East war is upending lives and livelihoods in the region and beyond. It has already triggered one of the largest disruptions to global energy markets in modern history. Sharp increases in oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, together with transport bottlenecks, will inevitably lead to rising food prices and food insecurity.
 
The burden will fall most heavily on the world’s most vulnerable populations, particularly in low‑income, import‑dependent economies. Spikes in fuel prices and sharp increases in food prices are especially concerning where fiscal space is constrained and debt burdens are already high, reducing governments’ ability to protect vulnerable households".
 
“The impact of the war is substantial, global, disproportionately affecting energy importers, in particular low-income countries,” a joint statement by leaders of the IEA, IMF and World Bank said. “The shock has led to higher oil, gas and fertilizer prices, triggering concerns about food security and job losses as well.”
 
During the conflict between Iran and the U.S. and Israel, more than 80 hydrocarbon facilities, including oil fields, gas fields, refineries and terminals, have sustained damage in the Middle East, with more than one-third severely damaged, the IEA said, adding that repairs could take up to two years.
 
The IMF said that even if the war ends quickly, lasting damage to the world’s economy will still happen, with higher inflation, weaker economic growth, and job losses.
 
* Higher prices and constraints on diesel fuel availability, which is critical for the production and movement of agricultural goods, will impact food production in the coming months, leading to higher food prices.
 
Mar. 2026
 
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is warning that the total number of people around the world facing acute levels of hunger could reach record numbers in 2026 if the conflict in the Middle East continues to destabilize the world’s economy.
 
New analysis by WFP estimates that almost 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity or worse (known as IPC3+) if the conflict does not end by the middle of the year, and if oil prices remain above USD 100 a barrel. These would add to the 318 million people around the world who are already food insecure.
 
When the Ukraine war began in 2022, triggering a cost of living crisis, global hunger reached record levels with 349 million people impacted. WFP’s latest projections indicate we are at risk of facing a similar situation in the months ahead if the Middle East conflict continues. During the 2022 period, food prices were fast to spike but slow to come down. This meant that vulnerable families already struggling with hunger were priced out of staple food items almost overnight, and for extended periods of time.
 
While in 2026 the conflict involves a global energy hub and not a breadbasket region, the potential impact is similar because energy and food markets are tightly correlated.
 
In many parts of the world, vulnerable families who today are currently managing to put some food on the table may soon find they are only able to afford little or no food.
 
“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest," said WFP Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Carl Skau. "Without an adequately funded humanitarian response, it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge.”
 
The virtual shipping standstill in the Strait of Hormuz and mounting risks to Red Sea maritime traffic are already increasing energy, fuel, and fertilizer costs, deepening hunger beyond the Middle East. The conflict reverberates far and wide — and the world’s most vulnerable people are the ones who will be most exposed to its ripple effects.
 
According to WFP’s analysis, countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are the most vulnerable due to a reliance on food and fuel imports. Projections indicate an increase of 21 percent in food-insecure people for West and Central Africa and 17 percent for East and Southern Africa. An increase of 24 percent is forecast for Asia.
 
Sudan, for example, imports around 80 percent of its wheat – a higher price for this staple will push more families into hunger. In Somalia, a country in the midst of severe drought, the price of some essential commodities has risen by at least 20 percent since the conflict began, according to local reports. Both are countries with high levels of food insecurity that have also experienced famine in recent years
 
This crisis comes amid severe funding shortfalls for WFP which has forced significant prioritization of programmes across all continents, ultimately meaning that people in need of assistance are being left behind. Further increases in food insecurity that are not matched by increased resources could spell catastrophe for some of the world’s most vulnerable countries that are already at risk of famine.
 
http://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-projects-food-insecurity-could-reach-record-levels-result-middle-east-escalation http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167147
 
23 Mar. 2026
 
Millions of people around the world at risk, after three weeks of the war in the Middle East, by Jorge Moreira da Silva, UN Under-Secretary-General and UNOPS Executive Director.
 
Severe disruptions in supply chains and shipping routes impact availability and prices of basic goods, increasing deprivation and vulnerability.
 
The escalation of conflict in the Middle East continues to have a devastating toll on civilians and livelihoods with global ripple effects.
 
Nearly a month into this devastating war, the impact is far reaching, across borders of conflict-affected countries, shaking the world economy amid exponential price hikes in oil, fuel and gas.
 
Disruptions to and closures of airspace, transportation, shipping routes and key humanitarian crossings across the Middle East are impacting humanitarian operations and commercial supply chains, including availability and prices of basic goods and pharmaceuticals.
 
The Strait of Hormuz carries around one quarter of global seaborne oil trade, along with large volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. Attacks on commercial vessels, stranded ships and seafarers threaten the delivery of basic supplies, risk higher food prices, and further strain fragile health systems. In Gaza, access restrictions are limiting the entry of life-saving supplies and hindering humanitarian operations.
 
Developing countries in Asia and the African continent are likely to bear the heaviest brunt. Disruptions in the Hormuz Strait compromise the delivery of energy supplies. Fertilizer markets are impacted, threatening food security in countries where famine or food insecurity are highest including Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia.
 
During the course of the year, the number of people living in hunger around the world is likely to increase by tens of millions. A widening war in the Gulf could also threaten remittance flows, primarily to South Asia.
 
Our world is the most violent it has been since the Second World War. The number of people uprooted and forced to flee their homes is increasing by the hour. One million people are now displaced in Lebanon, and another 3.2 million people in Iran. People around the region continue to search for safety. In most countries, no place is safe as schools, medical facilities and people’s homes are coming under constant attack.
 
Vulnerable people in the Middle East and beyond have suffered enough. Following decades of turmoil, repeated wars, economic stagnation, sanctions and socio-economic crises, people in the region deserve and need peace, stability and sustainable development.
 
There is no military solution. The only way to end this mayhem and people’s suffering is through diplomatic and peaceful solutions.
 
* The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol warns the energy crunch prompted by the US-Israel war on Iran exceeds the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks and gas shortages stemming from Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine put together.
 
Birol said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy facilities had reduced global oil supplies by about 11 million barrels per day, more than double the combined shortfalls of the 1970s’ crises. He said liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies had been reduced by about 140 billion cubic metres, compared with a shortfall of 75bcm in the aftermath of Ukraine’s invasion by Russia.
 
“The global economy is facing a major threat today, and I very much hope that this issue will be resolved as soon as possible,” Birol said. At least 40 energy facilities across nine countries have been severely damaged in the conflict, he said.
 
On Friday, the Paris-based intergovernmental organisation, which earlier this month announced plans to coordinate the release of 400 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles, proposed a series of measures governments could take to reduce energy consumption. The proposed measures include facilitating more remote working and carpooling, and lowering speed limits on motorways.
 
The IEA chief said he was in consultation with different countries about releasing more strategic oil reserves if needed, but the “single most important solution” to the crisis was to open the strait, which usually carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies.
 
Oil prices have surged more than 50 percent since the start of the war, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, followed by Iran’s blockade of the critical energy waterway.
 
http://www.unops.org/news-and-stories/speeches/millions-of-people-around-the-world-at-risk-over-three-weeks-on-the-war-in-the-middle-east http://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao--protracted-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-could-turn-into-global-agrifood-catastrophe/en http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/04/1167289 http://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-chief-economist-warns-of-severe-global-food-security-risks-from-disruption-to-strait-of-hormuz-trade-corridor/en http://www.ifpri.org/blog/the-iran-wars-impacts-on-global-fertilizer-markets-and-food-production/ http://www.ifad.org/en/w/publications/global-shock-local-crisis http://ipes-food.org/the-persian-gulf-oil-crisis-is-a-food-crisis/ http://ipes-food.org/ http://www.euractiv.com/news/five-eu-nations-urge-tax-on-energy-firms-windfall-profits/ http://thepoint.com.au/explainers/260323-the-case-for-a-gas-export-tax-explained
 
* ACAPS: 18 March 2026 Egypt:
 
Food prices in Egypt are increasing following the Government’s announcement of a 30% rise in fuel prices, driven mainly by the conflict escalation in the Middle East and supply chain disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising prices are likely to reduce purchasing power and hinder food access in a context where around 49% of households face insufficient food access and 21% of the population (22.5 million people) live below the national poverty line. The prices of key items, including fruits, vegetables, bread, and meat, have increased. For example, tomato prices have surged by 200%, potatoes by 87%, and bread by up to 50% in some areas, with nationwide bread prices projected to increase by 15–20% if disruptions continue. Besides higher fuel costs, rising agricultural input costs, dry weather conditions are further driving price increases.
 
http://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/asia-and-pacific-humanitarian-impact-middle-east-escalation-3-april-2026 http://www.unescwa.org/publications/conflict-shockwaves-escalating-impacts-risks-energy-water-food-systems-arab-region http://allafrica.com/stories/202604030309.html
 
8 Mar. 2026
 
WFP warns rising food and fuel prices risk pushing global hunger higher
 
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is warning that surging food and fuel prices driven by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have ripple effects that will worsen hunger for vulnerable populations in the region and beyond.
 
The escalation has already had a devastating impact on civilians bearing the brunt of the violence through mass displacement, loss of life, and the destruction of essential infrastructure.
 
As the conflict disrupts supply chains, drives up costs and weakens the purchasing power of families, people already on the edge could be pushed further towards severe food insecurity.
 
Early impacts of the conflict on food security:
 
The conflict is already having immediate food security impacts in the Middle East. In Lebanon, significant internal displacement is occurring within a population that has been grappling with high levels of food insecurity for several years.
 
In Iran, preexisting economic pressures are compounding the crisis. Economic stagnation, high food inflation, and rapid currency depreciation were already driving food insecurity prior to the current conflict, leaving households with limited capacity to absorb further shocks.
 
In Gaza, border closures at the onset of the crisis triggered sharp food price increases. While one crossing have since reopened, food prices remain elevated, continuing to constrain access to affordable food.
 
Beyond the region, the conflict is causing severe global supply chain disruptions with an unprecedented ‘dual chokepoint’ scenario for transport affecting shipping, energy, and fertilizer markets with clear knock-on effects.
 
A significant share of the global fertilizer supply transits through the Strait of Hormuz; any disruption there risks reduced availability, lower crop yields, and hence higher global food prices.
 
Tom Fletcher, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator:
 
"The consequences of the war in the Middle East do not stop at the front lines. Beyond the impact on civilians, the fallout will ricochet through markets, shipping and aviation routes, and food prices – across the region and around the globe.
 
The impact on our lifesaving humanitarian work will be immense. Millions of people are at risk. We are already seeing this play out. Fuel prices have soared, driving up global shipping costs. Flight and maritime disruptions have slowed the movement of goods and personnel, putting humanitarian supplies at risk of six-month delays. Global supply chains are under strain.
 
And traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most vital trade corridors – has slowed to a trickle. When ships stop moving through that Strait, the consequences travel fast. Food, medicine, fertilizer and other supplies become harder to move and more expensive to deliver.
 
Humanitarian supply chains are fragile. When routes close and costs surge, the help we can deliver shrinks – and the people who need it most are the ones who lose it first.
 
http://www.wfp.org/news/global-disruptions-supply-chains-are-driving-tomorrows-hunger-crisis http://www.wfp.org/global-hunger-crisis http://www.icrc.org/en/statement/icrc-president-war-on-essential-infrastructure-is-war-on-civilians http://www.unocha.org/latest/news-and-stories
 
http://unctad.org/news/hormuz-shipping-disruptions-raise-risks-energy-fertilizers-and-vulnerable-economies http://unctad.org/publication/strait-hormuz-disruptions-growth-and-financial-implications http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167167 http://reliefweb.int/report/world/fao-chief-economist-warns-severe-global-food-security-risks-disruption-strait-hormuz-trade-corridor http://www.crisisgroup.org/stm/global/iran-israelpalestine-united-states/hormuz-initiative-protect-global-food-security http://www.mercycorps.org/press-room/releases/Middle-East-Conflict-Economic-Impacts-Africa http://news.un.org/en/story/2026/04/1167254 http://www.ifpri.org/blog/the-hunger-crisis-is-set-to-get-worse-in-west-and-central-africa-why-and-what-to-do-about-it/ http://www.ifpri.org/landing/conflict-shocks-food-systems-blog
 
* Oil prices and food prices move in concert with energy prices affecting every stage of the food supply chain from the fertilisers used in the fields to the trucks that carry food from the fields to supermarket shelves. Rising oil prices directly affect shipping and the cost of transportation.
 
In lower-income countries, where populations spend a far greater share of their income on food and import large quantities of grain and fertiliser, rising oil prices will translate into higher food prices and potential food shortages.
 
For much of the world, higher energy prices will raise the cost of living, lead to higher inflation and interest rates curtailing economic growth and increasing unemployment.
 
http://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en http://www.fao.org/in-focus/middle-east-conflict-2026/en http://www.ungeneva.org/en/news-media/news/2026/05/118724/global-energy-and-trade-disruption-pushing-millions-towards-poverty http://www.fao.org/giews/country-analysis/external-assistance/en/ http://fews.net/global/food-assistance-outlook-brief/may-2026 http://www.ipcinfo.org/


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Global tax reform is essential
by ICRICT, Global Alliance for Tax Justice, agencies
 
Aug. 2026
 
Negotiating the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation at United Nations.
 
The United Nations Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation ("Framework Convention") is a proposed international agreement that aims to create a fairer and more effective approach to global tax governance. The process emerged from calls to modernize global tax governance, reallocate taxing rights over multinational enterprises and digital services, and strengthen domestic resource mobilization for sustainable development: http://financing.desa.un.org/unfcitc
 
Taxing multinationals where real economic activity, employment, and sales actually occur would allow countries worldwide to collect billions in corporate tax every year without raising tax rates. The transformative impact of this tax boost would be felt most acutely in the Global South where public funding of essential services and measures to address the climate crisis are most urgently needed..
 
http://www.hrw.org/news/2026/08/19/taxing-tech-in-age-of-ai-could-fund-human-rights http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(26)00975-X/fulltext http://solidaritylevies.org/policy-resources/ http://www.cesr.org/un-tax-convention-must-put-human-rights-into-action/ http://www.socialprotectionfloorscoalition.org/2026/09/statement-strengthening-social-protection-financing-through-tax-justice/ http://globaltaxjustice.org/news/midway-in-un-tax-negotiations-global-south-sees-reason-for-optimism-urges-high-ambition-must-prevail http://taxjustice.net/reports/a-500-billion-dollar-decision-for-the-world-the-revenue-impacts-of-global-unitary-taxation/ http://opiniojuris.org/2026/01/13/a-fairer-tax-system-is-a-global-human-rights-imperative/ http://www.neep-poverty.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/5.6-A-United-Nations-Framework-Convention-on-International-Tax-Cooperation_final-1.pdf http://giescr.org/en/our-work/on-the-ground/5th-session-of-the-un-tax-convention-negotiations http://taxjustice.net/press/rich-countries-push-to-preserve-the-status-quo-in-un-tax-convention-despite-standing-to-gain-billions/ http://taxjustice.net/topics/un-tax-convention/
 
http://www.cesr.org/updates-from-the-fifth-session-of-negotiations-on-the-un-tax-convention/ http://globaltaxjustice.org/news/civil-society-submission-on-zero-draft/ http://giescr.org/en/resources/publications/the-tax-convention-is-only-the-beginning-what-public-service-movements-taught-us-about-the-long-road-to-tax-justice-at-the-un http://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/thematic-reports/ahrc6144-international-assistance-and-cooperation-report-independent http://www.icrict.com/international-tax-reform/un-ecosoc-a-blueprint-for-financial-integrity/ http://www.icrict.com/reports/icrict-statement-on-the-un-negotiations-for-a-framework-convention-on-international-taxcooperation-and-its-two-early-protocols/ http://www.icrict.com/non-classe/ffd4-recap-shifting-the-balance-on-global-tax-justice/ http://www.eurodad.org/fossil_fuel_surtax http://globaltaxjustice.org/news
 
July 2026
 
The world needs new tax rules, by Jose Antonio Ocampo - Chairman of the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation.
 
On 3 August, negotiators at the United Nations will resume work on a Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation. This is the first attempt to write the rules of international taxation in a forum where all countries have an equal say, so what happens in New York will determine whether the world finally gets a taxation framework capable of reaching multinational corporations and the ultra-rich.
 
The current global tax rules are wide open to abuse. Multinationals can and do design their legal structures to minimise the taxes they pay in the jurisdictions where they generate revenues. That is why the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation (ICRICT), of which I am a member, has long championed the idea of unitary taxation.
 
By assessing a multinational’s profits at the global level, this approach would ensure that each country in which it operates can tax its profits proportionately.
 
A forthcoming study from the Tax Justice Network will show that lower- and higher-income countries alike would gain from such a change, with tax revenues worldwide increasing by an estimated $700 billion to $1 trillion per year.
 
The latest negotiations come at a time when, in the World Inequality Lab’s estimation, the richest 0.001 per cent, some 56 000 people, own three times more wealth than the poorer half of humanity.
 
According to a committee of experts convened by South Africa’s G20 presidency and chaired by the Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz, the richest one percent have captured 41 per cent of all new wealth created since 2000, while the poorest half received just one percent.
 
One finds a similar pattern in market reactions to the Iran and Ukraine wars: oil companies, commodity traders, and hedge funds have used recent supply shocks to reap massive profits, leading the ICRICT to call for a tax on war-generated windfalls.
 
What can a UN convention on global taxation achieve? For starters, it would demonstrate what the Global South can accomplish when it does not give up.
 
After years of negotiations in the OECD, the resulting Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting included only limited and watered-down reforms. Refusing to accept such an outcome, the African Union pushed through a 2022 UN General Assembly resolution that moved tax rulemaking from the OECD to the UN, where the G77 (developing countries) has spearheaded the negotiations.
 
The African Union and the G77 understood what a century of experience had taught them: Those not at the table are on the menu. Africa, for example, loses an estimated $88 – 90 billion annually to illicit financial flows, a large share of which reflects tax avoidance by multinationals. The tax convention offers an opportunity to start addressing this problem.
 
Among the governments most actively involved, Brazil stands out. As G20 president in 2024, it ensured that the agenda would include a coordinated minimum tax of 2 per cent on the wealth of billionaires. And Brazil has matched its words on the world stage with deeds at home, introducing a 10 per cent minimum tax on the highest incomes and boosting tax revenues to 33.7 per cent of GDP — the highest in the region and nearly the OECD average.
 
Moreover, Latin America has learned to speak with one voice through the Regional Platform for Tax Cooperation in Latin America and the Caribbean, which was jointly launched by Brazil, Chile, and Colombia (during my tenure as finance minister).
 
Brazil held the PTLAC presidency until handing it over to the Dominican Republic this year, and it continues work through the platform to ensure that the region is ‘at the table’ in the negotiations.
 
India, too, is stepping up. Its Supreme Court recently ruled against multinationals’ use of Mauritian shell companies to avoid tax obligations, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has signalled its intention to help write the new rules, rather than passively submitting to the old ones.
 
Finally, the G24 (the organisation of developing countries in the Bretton Woods institutions) has also given developing countries a reliable forum to agree on common positions that will give them leverage in the negotiations.
 
That said, there are also holdouts and hesitators. Most European countries abstained when the General Assembly approved the tax convention’s terms of reference, and many OECD members are pursuing a ‘high-level’ convention — implying an agreement on lofty principles that will bind no one, with any meaningful commitments put aside for future negotiations.
 
The Europeans claim that the Framework Convention would force a renegotiation of thousands of bilateral tax treaties. But that is a scare tactic. Under the convention, obligations for states can be drafted to operate alongside existing treaties. The real choice is between rules with substance and an elegant, empty text that legitimizes a failed system.
 
After the good and the bad comes the ugly. The United States voted against the convention’s terms of reference in 2024, walked out of the negotiations the moment they started, and pressed others to follow.
 
And since January, a ‘side-by-side’ framework agreed at the OECD has exempted the US from the global minimum tax its own negotiators helped design.
 
The US has also become the new tax haven of the Americas: 44 per cent of Latin America’s offshore wealth is held there, and one-quarter of it escapes automatic information exchanges.
 
As Stiglitz notes, US President Donald Trump is openly trying to concentrate the world’s tax-abusive jurisdictions inside US territory.
 
He is joined by governments that prefer courting the US president than negotiating as a regional bloc. A string of new administrations across Latin America has adopted this posture, with Argentina even voting against the convention’s terms of reference and remaining outside PTLAC.
 
An ambitious convention that assigns taxation authority fairly must be the endgame. In a digitalised world, we need an ambitious protocol on cross-border services, so that the countries where users and consumers are located can tax the income generated there.
 
We also need universal access to information exchange, interconnected registries of assets and beneficial owners, public country-by-country reporting by multinationals, and coordination to ensure effective taxation of the ultra-rich — starting with the minimum tax on great fortunes that Brazil has already put on the agenda.
 
Tax systems that erode equality end up eroding democracy. The negotiations that will resume next month are the one arena where all countries can rewrite the rules together, and where the good can prevail over the bad and the ugly.
 
© Project Syndicate
 
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/un-tax-negotiations-must-overcome-euro-hesitancy-trumpian-obstruction-by-jose-antonio-ocampo-2026-07 http://www.icrict.com/videos/campaign-jayati-ghosh-on-universal-social-protection-international-fair-taxation/ http://www.icrict.com/ http://taxjustice.net/topics/un-tax-convention/ http://globaltaxjustice.org/news/cso-brief/ http://globaltaxjustice.org/news/
 
June 2026
 
Global tax reform is essential - PSI, Network of Unions for Tax Justice
 
For decades, multinational companies have had the upper hand in deciding where profits are taxed, shifting them to low-tax jurisdictions regardless of where workers create value or where customers are located.
 
Many countries in the Global South have had limited ability to tax those profits, even as they face growing pressure to finance development through domestic revenues.
 
Workers worldwide have paid the price in underfunded public services and stagnant wages. Now, a narrow window for change has opened as the rules that govern corporate taxation are being renegotiated simultaneously at the OECD and the United Nations.
 
Why tax matters for workers
 
Corporate taxation directly affects wages, public services and economic security. At leasty $350 billion is lost globally, and more than 90 billion from Africa alone each year to corporate tax avoidance.
 
The impact is not evenly shared. Lower-income countries lose the equivalent of around 36% of their public health budgets, compared to around 7% in higher-income countries. When Multinational Corporations (MNCs) shift profits away from where value is created, the result is fewer services, lower public investment and slower wage growth.
 
For trade unions, these issues are central to workers’ interests and to driving transformation. The Network of Unions for Tax Justice (NUTJ), alongside global and national unions, works to advance corporate tax systems that reflect where value is created and strengthen public finances.
 
The global minimum tax: progress with limits
 
Existing international tax rules leave too much leeway to multinationals to book profits wherever rates are lowest, even when the actual business happens elsewhere.
 
The OECD’s 2021 global minimum tax (GMT) seeks to reduce the incentive for this kind of profit shifting by ensuring that large multinationals pay at least a minimum level of tax wherever they operate. If profits are taxed below that level in one country, additional tax can be applied elsewhere to reach the minimum.
 
The OECD’s GMT creates a queue for who gets to collect any additional tax. Due to fundamental flows in the design of the OECD reform, investment hubs and countries where multinational companies are headquartered are generally closer to the front, while countries which are not home to large multinationals but nonetheless record significant economic activity often find themselves further back.
 
By the time the queue reaches them, much of the additional tax may already have been collected elsewhere. This helps explain why many countries in the Global South receive only a small share, if at all, of the additional revenues generated by the GMT.
 
Where the system falls short
 
While the principle of a global minimum marks an important attempt to curb aggressive tax competition, the OECD rules still allow taxing rights to follow where MNCs declare their profits.
 
When profits are shifted to low-tax jurisdictions, countries where value is created have limited ability to tax them. The OECD rules do provide some scope for countries to strengthen their position through domestic measures, but the underlying problem remains.
 
A fairer and more effective design for a GMT would allocate the top-up tax everywhere value is created, in proportion to the multinational’s real economic activity.
 
Instead, the OECD design reflects the political imbalance behind the agreement, with countries hosting multinational headquarters better positioned to collect additional revenues.
 
While the GMT is expected to raise over EUR 150 billion in the long term, most gains accrue to higher-income countries. Even in more favourable scenarios, developing countries gain at most around half as much as richer economies, with more realistic estimates placing their share at negligible levels.
 
Recent developments have further weakened this limited progress. The OECD’s “side-by-side” agreement allows the United States, home to many of the largest and most profitable companies, to apply a different system from the one agreed under the GMT.
 
This permits blending across jurisdictions, meaning low-tax profits in one country can be offset by higher taxes elsewhere. The result is a special treatment for US multinationals that undermines the OECD GMT’s aim of establishing a firm country-by-country minimum and reopens space for the tax competition it was meant to curb.
 
Building on the global minimum tax
 
The limitations of the OECD GMT point to the need for complementary national domestic reforms. The Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT), developed by trade unions and tax experts, starts from a simple principle: multinational companies should be taxed where real economic activity takes place, not where profits are declared.
 
It builds on the idea of a minimum tax while introducing a fairer way to determine where it is paid, allocating profits using observable factors such as sales and employment. These factors are harder to manipulate than internal pricing arrangements.
 
Evidence from firm-level data in Nigeria suggests that this approach could have a significant impact. The draft CAMT bill, developed using Nigeria as a model country, proposes a 25% minimum effective tax rate for large multinationals. Based on the data, revenues from in-scope companies could double or even triple.
 
The CAMT model sets out how other countries with similar legal and economic contexts, could adapt the legislation to their own systems. In that sense, the CAMT provides governments with a tool that can be tailored and implemented without waiting for global consensus.
 
Why this matters for African economies
 
For African countries, the gap between where profits are generated and taxed has immediate consequences. The continent loses an estimated $80-$90 billion each year to profit shifting and illicit financial flows, more than total foreign aid inflows, while facing a financing gap of around $200 billion annually to meet the SDGs.
 
Raising domestic revenue is central to development strategies across Africa, yet tax-to-GDP ratios remain low at around 15-16% over the last decade. With limited fiscal space, profit shifting directly reduces governments’ ability to invest in infrastructure, healthcare and education.
 
Nigeria illustrates these challenges clearly. Corporate income tax is a central pillar of public income, accounting for on average 44% of total government revenue over almost a decade. This level of dependence makes under-taxation of multinational profits especially costly, as its impact on public finances is disproportionate.
 
When such a large share of public revenue depends on corporate taxation, ensuring that MNCs are effectively taxed becomes essential.
 
Strengthening corporate taxation is therefore central to closing fiscal gaps, with tax revenues at around 6.5% of GDP on average, among the lowest globally and far from the 18-20% President Tinubu considers necessary to support development goals.
 
Nigeria’s 2025 tax reforms allow authorities to tax MNCs based on their economic activity in the country, even without a physical presence, and introduce a more formula-based way to determine taxable profits. Together, these changes shift the focus from where profits are declared to where economic activity takes place, aligning with the approach behind the CAMT.
 
In Ghana, upcoming reforms create a similar opportunity. The government is expected to review the income tax legislation in 2026. This provides a clear entry point for adapting elements of the CAMT framework within an ongoing reform process.
 
Acting now while global reform continues
 
International tax reform is moving, but it is not yet delivering the scale of change needed. The UN process offers a pathway toward a more inclusive system and deserves strong support, but governments cannot afford to wait while revenue losses continue.
 
This urgency was reflected at a roundtable in New York this year, supported by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, which brought together trade unions and government representatives from countries including Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya.
 
In Nigeria and Ghana, labour organisations are already advancing reforms such as the CAMT. If adopted, these measures could strengthen public revenues immediately while building momentum across the region. That snowball effect would not only help countries protect their tax bases, but also strengthen the case for more ambitious reforms in international negotiations.
 
Governments do not need to wait for a global agreement to act. The tools already exist, and delaying reform is itself a choice with consequences.
 
[1] One of the key features of the GMT is that it reduces the pressure on developing countries to offer overly generous tax incentives to retain foreign investment. Because multinational companies are now required to pay a minimum effective tax rate of 15% regardless of where they operate, the GMT gives countries in the Global South greater leverage to resist corporate pressure for very low tax rates. However, as far as the GMT is concerned domestic provisions must comply with detailed OECD design requirements and they only apply to profits reported in the jurisdiction.
 
http://tinyurl.com/y7vy3wyv http://taxjustice.net/2026/06/10/what-we-learned-from-three-years-of-conversations-on-poverty-beyond-growth/ http://taxjustice.net/all-latest-activity/ http://www.neep-poverty.org/roadmap-for-eradicating-poverty-beyond-growth/economic-systems-transformation/ http://www.business-humanrights.org/en/big-issues/governing-business-human-rights/un-binding-treaty/ http://www.escr-net.org/resources/communities-win-in-court-but-governments-refuse-to-comply-how-states-are-undermining-economic-and-social-rights/


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