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	World’s most volatile flashpoints could get a lot more unpredictable by Jean-Marie Guéhenno, Tony Addison International Crisis Group, UNU-WIDER   Responding to crises: What can we do? What’s next, by Tony Addison.(UNU-WIDER)   Although sometimes over used, the word ''crisis'' accurately describes many challenges of today''s world, such as climage change, war and refugees, economic volatility, pandemics, and the continuing unmet needs of the poor, hungry, and neglected. While much has been achieved — in reducing the incidence of poverty and infant mortality, especially — our bright hopes for the future could be dimmed by shocks that can overwhelm nations, international organizations, communities, and citizens.   UNU-WIDER’s ‘Responding to crises’ conference, held in Helsinki in September, aimed to improve knowledge about continuing, unexpected, and future crises. It also served as a forum to discuss the options available for governments, international agencies, NGOs, civil society and private citizens to respond.   The conference paid close attention to the economic and social impact of crises, the tensions that arise in responding to continuing crises while dealing with the unexpected, the resourcing of responses, and what the future might bring - for better or for worse.   For the world''s poorest people, each day is a crisis of finding work, enough to eat, and safety. Even for those who escape poverty traps, other challenges present themselves, especially in fragile states with weak governance and a lack of human rights. Gender violence, as a whole, is all too pervasive. Continuing crises such as poverty and hunger were the focus of the Millennium Development Goals and, as the new Sustainable Development Goals indicate, are still of critical importance today.   The crises of the future will come in many different shapes and sizes. Wars, pandemics and natural disasters can sometimes be predicted, but we very rarely know when they will happen or how far-reaching their impact will be. In recent times, mass migration, Zika, and Ebola have reared their heads.   Similar unexpected crises will, regrettably, continue to emerge. One of the best ways to limit their impacts is to raise the general level of development and thus ensure that countries have the resources and skills to respond in the most effective manner.   Even for crises that we’ve seen coming for a long time - such as climate change - the international community has been slow to act. The world continues to expect innovation and technological progress in addressing this vital issue. Certainly progress on renewable energy, and its take-up, is accelerating. But clearly more action is needed if the potentially catastrophic impact of climate change is to be limited.   Some politicians continue to put forward the view that prosperity comes before the environment. But if we destroy the planet, what are the chances of maintaining and raising the living standards for all of humanity?   Population growth also requires attention as it adds to the urgent need to create low-carbon green economies that secure the environmental basis of continuing and rising prosperity. This must be done alongside job creation. Much of the poorer world is seeing increased economic growth but not enough new jobs to provide employment to an increasing number of people at ever rising levels of skill, and hopefully income.   By 2050 there will 2.5 billion people in Africa and Nigeria’s population will be larger than that of the US. Hundreds of millions of people without decent livelihoods is a recipe for social and political turmoil. In a crisis of this scale, the potential exodus of people may far exceed that of the migrants and refugees seen today.   Current crises and future threats can, however, become opportunities. If a successful war-to-peace transition is accomplished, a crisis of war and population displacement can yield a society that is more aware of how unmet needs feed grievance and, eventually, conflict.   Crisis resolution may highlight the needs of the excluded, leading to investments in institutions that encourage the use of non-violent channels to address grievances. The last twenty years has seen conflicts end and societies rebuilt in countries such as Mozambique and Liberia.   Natural disasters have sometimes overwhelmed human societies, leading in the worst cases to their eradication. But history is also filled with examples of humankind adapting to environmental stress and rebuilding its environmental capital.   Climate change demands technological as well as social innovation on an unprecedented scale. Thankfully, humanity now has more resources and scientific knowledge at its fingertips to effectively deal with these issues than at any other time.   Humanity has come back from repeated pandemics across its long history and has learnt from each terrible experience. Our task now is to put the responses in place, initiate fast action, and enable societies to rebuild quickly.   At the same time, we need to invest more in organizations and technologies that meet everyday health needs, especially those of the poor. Once widespread diseases, such as polio, have almost been defeated. We must continue working to end the scourge of child and maternal mortality seen in the poor world today.   The demographic burden can become a demographic dividend if more young people find productive jobs in economies that have been transformed from their present over-dependence on exports of mostly unprocessed primary commodities.   The political pressure resulting from young people’s frustration with the existing social and economic order can yield more inclusive societies that make the tough decisions to overcome persistent discrimination and neglect. Historically, this has happened: some societies, like Indonesia, have moved to better times through periods of turmoil during which the existing political structures have been questioned and overturned.   Crises create panic and bad responses when we don’t have the facts or when we don’t want to face them. Preparedness based on sound evidence reduces fear, leads to faster action, and builds confidence. Everyone in society, both national and global, has a role to play in tackling current and future crises.   Governments, international agencies, NGOs, civil society, and private citizens can respond in multiple ways, and need to work together to provide the most effective solutions. With conferences like this one, it is UNU-WIDER’s hope to help everyone make fewer bad choices and more good ones. http://bit.ly/2c3xf5L   http://www.wider.unu.edu/event/responding-crises http://www.wider.unu.edu/blog   * Tony Addison is Deputy Director of UNU-WIDER, the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research which provides economic analysis and policy advice with the aim of promoting sustainable and equitable development for all.   Jan. 2017   World’s most volatile flashpoints could get a lot more unpredictable, by Jean-Marie Guéhenno. (Crisis Group)   The world is entering a dangerous chapter. The sharp uptick in war over recent years is outstripping our ability to cope with the consequences. From the global refugee crisis to the spread of terrorism, our collective failure to resolve conflict is giving birth to new threats and emergencies. Even in peaceful societies, the politics of fear is leading to dangerous polarization and demagoguery.   It is against this backdrop that Donald Trump was elected the president of the United States — unquestionably the most important event of last year and one with far-reaching geopolitical implications for the future. Much has been said about the unknowns of Trump’s foreign-policy agenda. But one thing we do know is that uncertainty itself can be profoundly destabilizing, especially when it involves the most powerful actor on the global stage. Already, jittery allies from Europe to East Asia are parsing Trump’s tweets and casual bluster. Will he try to undo the Iran nuclear accord? Is he seriously proposing a new arms race? Who knows? And that is precisely the problem.   The last 60 years have suffered their share of crises, from Vietnam to Rwanda to the Iraq War. But the vision of a cooperative international order that emerged after World War II, championed and led by the United States, has structured relations between major powers since the end of the Cold War.   That order was in flux even before Trump won the election. The retrenchment of Washington, for both good and ill, began during Barack Obama’s presidency. But Obama worked to shore up international institutions to fill the gap. Today, we can no longer assume that a United States shaped by “America first” will provide the bricks and mortar of the international system. U.S. hard power, when not accompanied and framed by its soft power, is more likely to be perceived as a threat rather than the reassurance that it has been for many.   In Europe, uncertainty over the new U.S. political posture is compounded by the messy aftermath of Brexit. Nationalist forces have gained strength, testing the cohesion of the European project. We cannot afford to lose Europe’s balancing voice in the world.   Exacerbated regional rivalries are also transforming the landscape, as is particularly evident in the competition between Iran and the Persian Gulf countries for influence in the Middle East. The resulting proxy wars have had devastating consequences from Syria to Iraq to Yemen.   Many world leaders claim that the way out of deepening divisions is to unite around the shared goal of fighting terrorism. But that is an illusion: Terrorism is just a tactic, and fighting a tactic cannot define a strategy. Jihadi groups exploit wars and state collapse to consolidate power, and they thrive on chaos. In the end, what the international system really needs is a strategy of conflict prevention that shores up, in an inclusive way, the states that are its building blocks. The international system needs more than the pretense of a common enemy to sustain itself.   With the advent of the Trump administration, transactional diplomacy, already on the rise, looks set to increase. Tactical bargaining is replacing long-term strategies and values-driven policies. A rapprochement between Russia and Turkey holds some promise for reducing the level of violence in Syria. However, Moscow and Ankara must eventually help forge a path toward more inclusive governance — or else they risk being sucked ever deeper into the Syrian quagmire. A stable Middle East is unlikely to emerge from the temporary consolidation of authoritarian regimes that ignore the demands of the majority of their people.   The EU, long a defender of values-based diplomacy, has struck bargains with Turkey, Afghanistan, and African states to stem the flow of migrants and refugees — with worrying global consequences.   Beijing’s hardheaded approach in its relationship with other Asian countries and with Africa and Latin America shows what a world deprived of the implicit balance of international norms may look like.   Such transactional arrangements may look like a revival of realpolitik. But an international system guided by short-term deal-making is unlikely to be stable. Deals can be broken when they do not reflect longer-term strategies. Without a predictable order, widely accepted rules, and strong institutions, the space for mischief is greater.   The world is increasingly fluid and multipolar, pushed and pulled by a diverse set of states and nonstate actors — by armed groups as well as by civil society. In a bottom-up world, major powers cannot single-handedly contain or control local conflicts, but they can manipulate or be drawn into them: Local conflicts can be the spark that lights much bigger fires.   Whether we like it or not, globalization is a fact. We are all connected. Syria’s war triggered a refugee crisis that contributed to Brexit, whose profound political and economic consequences will again ripple outward. Countries may wish to turn inward, but there is no peace and prosperity without more cooperative management of world affairs.   http://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch http://bit.ly/2E1fhwy http://bit.ly/2x1OkWv http://www.bond.org.uk/resources/state-of-the-worlds-emergencies-2017
	Stranded by the State by In These Times, Kartemquin Films USA   Illinois has not passed a real budget in over a year, the first state to do so since the Great Depression. The ongoing fight over the budget between Governor Bruce Rauner and the Illinois General Assembly has been covered widely, but what do the effects of this lingering crisis look like in people’s day-to-day lives?   This video series follows the families, workers and students living through the de facto budget cuts, showing the ways it deteriorates the fabric of Illinois communities.   Each episode offers a different aspect of the crisis; from higher education to social services to housing as well as who is benefiting from the crisis and what kinds of solutions could ultimately solve it.   The series incorporates data connecting the situation in Illinois to long-term trends of austerity affecting the country at large, and how it ultimately costs taxpayers more in the long run.   Upcoming episodes will feature issues including at-risk youth, adult literacy, senior food programs, immigrant services, higher education and supportive housing. They will also explore the impact of toxic swaps as well potential revenue-based solutions to the budget crisis. Visit the related web page
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