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	Governments’ fossil fuel plans steer world further from Paris Agreement warming limits by Stockholm Environment Institute, IISD, agencies   Sep. 2025   Governments’ fossil fuel production plans continue to steer world further from Paris Agreement warming limits, 2025 Production Gap Report finds   10 years after the Paris Agreement, governments plan to produce more than double (120%) the volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and 77% more than would be consistent with 2°C.   Achieving these plans would take the world further from the goals of the Paris Agreement, even as countries submit new climate commitments intended to fulfill their contributions to the pact.   When this assessment was last performed in 2023, the fossil fuel production gap was 110% above the 1.5°C warming pathway and 69% more than the 2°C pathway. These findings underscore the importance of upholding the 2023 UAE Consensus at COP28 to transition away from the use of fossil fuels in energy systems and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.   The main findings of the 2025 Production Gap Report include:   Since the 2023 analysis, governments now plan even higher levels of coal production to 2035 and gas production to 2050. Planned oil production continues to increase to 2050.   To meet Paris Agreement goals of holding warming to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C, the world must now undertake steeper and faster reductions in fossil fuel production to compensate for lack of progress so far.   Meanwhile, governments expanding fossil fuel infrastructure waste public funds on development destined to become stranded assets.   Achieving these reductions will require deliberate, coordinated policies to ensure a just transition away from fossil fuels. While a few major fossil-fuel-producing countries have begun to align production plans with national and international climate goals, most still have not.   The 2025 Production Gap Report is produced by Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, and International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). It assesses governments’ planned and projected production of coal, oil, and gas against global levels consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.   “In 2023, governments formally acknowledged the need to move away from fossil fuels to mitigate climate change – an obligation the International Court of Justice has now clearly emphasized,” says Derik Broekhoff, coordinating lead author of the Production Gap Report and climate policy program director at SEI’s US Center. “But as our report makes clear, while many countries have committed to a clean energy transition, many others appear to be stuck using a fossil-fuel-dependent playbook, planning even more production than they were two years ago.”   The 2025 Production Gap Report provides new analysis for 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries responsible for about 80% of global fossil fuel production: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States.   These profiles show that 17 of the 20 featured countries still plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel to 2030. Eleven now expect higher production of at least one fossil fuel in 2030 than they had planned in 2023. On the other hand, 6 of the 20 profiled countries are now developing domestic fossil fuel production aligned with national and global net zero targets, up from four in 2023.   “To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, the world needs rapid reductions in coal, oil, and gas investments, redirecting these resources toward an energy transition that prioritizes equity and justice,” says Emily Ghosh, coordinating lead author and equitable transitions program director at SEI US.   “By COP30, governments must commit to expand renewables, phase out fossil fuels, manage energy demands, and implement community-centered energy transitions to align with Paris Agreement obligations. Without these commitments, delaying action further will lock in additional emissions and worsen climate impacts on the world’s most vulnerable populations.”   More than 50 researchers from all over the globe contributed to the analysis and review, spanning numerous universities, think tanks and other research organizations.   Reactions to the 2025 Production Gap Report   “Let this report be both a warning and a guide. Renewables will inevitably crowd out fossil fuels completely, but we need deliberate action now to close the gap on time. What we need now is courage and solidarity to move forward at great speed with the just transition.“ – Christiana Figueres, former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC.   “The increase in fossil fuel expansion plans over the last two years is alarming. While many governments see renewables as key to their energy security, others are betting against the clean energy transition. To avert the worst climate impacts with minimal economic disruption, governments need to commit to no new fossil fuels and back the clean industries of the future.” – Olivier Bois von Kursk, report co-author and Policy Advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development   “Ten years after Paris, renewables are way out in front of the pack. Instead of getting in the race, governments are blundering backwards towards our fossil past. While it’s frustrating seeing public money squandered on what will inevitably become stranded assets, it’s intolerably unjust to think about the human and environmental costs of these fossil expansion plans, especially for the most vulnerable.” – Neil Grant, report co-author and Senior Expert at Climate Analytics   http://www.sei.org/about-sei/press-room/production-gap-report-2025-press-release-2 http://productiongap.org/2025report/ Visit the related web page
	Changes in climate resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases harm the welfare of people by National Academy of Sciences USA   Sep. 2025   A new report from the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine says the evidence for current and future harm to human health and welfare created by human-caused greenhouse gases is beyond scientific dispute.   The report focuses on evidence gathered by the scientific community since 2009, when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency found that greenhouse gas emissions threaten public health and welfare. The EPA recently gave notice of proposed rulemaking indicating its intention to rescind this finding.   The report says Environmental Protection Agency’s 2009 finding was accurate, has stood the test of time, and is now reinforced by even stronger evidence. Much of the understanding of climate change that was uncertain or tentative in 2009 has now been resolved by scientific research, the report says.   “This study was undertaken with the ultimate aim of informing the EPA, following its call for public comments, as it considers the status of the endangerment finding,” said Shirley Tilghman, professor of molecular biology and public affairs, emeritus, and former president, Princeton University, and chair of the committee that wrote the report. “We are hopeful that the evidence summarized here shows the strong base of scientific evidence available to inform sound decision-making.”   To prepare its report, the committee considered widely available datasets that provide information about greenhouse gas emissions, the climate system, and human health and public welfare; a broad range of peer-reviewed literature and scientific assessments; and more than 200 comments submitted in response to a request for information.   The report concludes:   Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from human activities are increasing the concentration of these gases in the atmosphere. Human activities, such as the extraction and burning of fossil fuels, cement and chemical production, deforestation, and agricultural activities, emit greenhouse gases, which include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases, into the atmosphere.   Total global GHG emissions continue to increase, even though U.S. emissions of CO2 have decreased slightly in recent years largely due to changes in energy production and consumption. Multiple lines of evidence show that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the primary driver of the observed long-term warming trend. No known natural drivers, such as incoming solar radiation or volcanic emissions, can explain observed changes.   Improved observations confirm unequivocally that greenhouse gas emissions are warming Earth’s surface and changing Earth’s climate. Longer records, improved and more robust observational networks, and analytical and methodological advances have strengthened detection of observed changes and their attribution to elevated levels of greenhouse gases.   Trends observed include increases in hot extremes and extreme single-day precipitation events, declines in cold extremes, regional shifts in annual precipitation, warming of the Earth’s oceans, a decrease in ocean pH, rising sea levels, and an increase in wildfire severity.   Human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change harm the health of people in the United States. Climate change intensifies risks to humans from exposures to extreme heat, ground-level ozone, airborne particulate matter, extreme weather events, and airborne allergens, affecting incidence of cardiovascular, respiratory, and other diseases.   Climate change has increased exposure to pollutants from wildfire smoke and dust, which has been linked to adverse health effects. The increasing severity of some extreme events has contributed to injury, illness, and death in affected communities.   Health impacts related to climate-sensitive infectious diseases — such as those carried by insects and contaminated water — have increased. New evidence is developing about additional health impacts of climate change, including on mental health, nutrition, immune health, antimicrobial resistance, kidney disease, and negative pregnancy-related outcomes.   Groups such as older adults, people with preexisting health conditions or multiple chronic diseases, and outdoor workers are disproportionately susceptible to climate-associated health effects. Even as non-climate factors, including adaptation measures, can help people cope with harmful impacts of climate change, they cannot remove the risk of harm.   Changes in climate resulting from human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases harm the welfare of people in the United States. Climate-driven changes in temperature and precipitation extremes and variability are leading to negative impacts on agricultural crops and livestock, even as technological and other changes have increased agricultural production. Climate change, including increases in climate variability and wildfires, is changing the composition and function of forest and grassland ecosystems.   Climate-related changes in water availability and quality vary across regions in the United States with some regions showing a decline.   Climate-related changes in the chemistry and the heat content of the ocean are having negative effects on calcifying organisms and contributing to increases in harmful algal blooms. U.S. energy systems, infrastructure, and many communities are experiencing increasing stress and costs owing to the effects of climate change.   Continued emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities will lead to more climate changes in the United States, with the severity of expected change increasing with every ton of greenhouse gases emitted. Despite successful efforts in many parts of the world to reduce emissions, total global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase, and additional warming is certain.   All climate models — regardless of assumptions about future emissions scenarios or estimates of climate sensitivity — consistently project continued warming in response to future atmospheric GHG increases. Applying fundamental physics of the Earth system leads to the same conclusion.   Continued changes in the climate increase the likelihood of passing thresholds in Earth systems that could trigger tipping points or other high-impact climate consequences.   http://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2025/09/national-academies-publish-new-report-reviewing-evidence-for-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-u-s-climate-health-and-welfare
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