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	A mixed Year for the Arab People by Rami G. Khouri The Daily Star Lebanon   Beirut , 01 January 2005   A look back at eventful 2005 in the Middle East shows three broad and significant developments in historical terms, related to the citizen, the state and the foreign powers that intervened in the region. Important changes are underway at all three of these levels of identity discernable today, though we need not predict where they will lead.   The most positive development has seen the citizen in many Arab countries start to rebel against the many indignities and inequities that he or she has endured in silence for decades - mostly variations of abuse of power by unelected, unaccountable elites from their own country or abroad. In Lebanon and Palestine, large-scale popular resistance and opposition were expressed, respectively, to Syrian domination and Israeli occupation.The citizenry"s rebellion in other Arab lands primarily took the form of small vanguard groups of democratic activists who openly but peacefully challenged the state"s monopoly on power (in Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Morocco), or mainstream Islamist parties that challenged the ruling elite through democratic elections to Parliament or to local councils (in Palestine, Egypt, or Lebanon).   Changes at the level of states were largely negative this year, the most troubling one being the continued fragmentation of 20th-century sovereign Arab states into much more brittle collections of ethnic, religious and tribal groups. The most common new trend I encountered throughout the 12 different Arab countries I visited this year - without exception - was the tendency to analyze each country in tribal rather than national terms. Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Sudan, Bahrain, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and most other Arab lands are now routinely seen through the prism of Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, Alawites, Druze, Palestinians, Darfurians, Turkmen, and assorted Christian groups such as Maronites, Copts or Greek Orthodox.   The Arab state is in the midst of being fractured, retribalized and redefined into much smaller configurations. Three principal causes of this process would seem to be: the largely incompetent, often brutal rule practiced by the reining Sunni Arab-dominated power elites during the past half century, a clear Israeli penchant for weakening Arab states and promoting the emergence of smaller, weaker minorities with whom it can engage to its advantage (as it has done for years with Kurds in Iraq and some right-wing groups in Lebanon), and, the current American formalization of ethnic politics in Iraq as a possible model for the entire region.   This leads to the third important trend that has defined the Middle East this year, but without clear indications of whether the end results will be positive or negative for the people of the region. This is the stepped up international direct engagement in the internal affairs of countries, including Arab states, Iran and Turkey. (Sorry, a small but necessary aside; if freedom and democracy are universal values, and should be spread around the world, does the same apply to the rule of law, and the state of Israel?).   The enduring exception of Israel aside, the international community"s intervention inside the Middle East this year has been striking for its audacity, but imprecise in its legitimacy and consequences. I would identify four dominant patterns of such intervention.   The first was the essentially unilateral American brute use of force, with window-dressing hangers-on, as happened in Iraq. We will need more time to discover if this epic intervention proves to be valiant or catastrophic for the people of Iraq and the region. The second was the multilateral, diplomatic, patient, focused, consensus-driven UN Security Council-based approach used in Lebanon to pressure Syria after the murder of Rafik Hariri last February. A variation on this deliberate approach is also being used to engage Iran on its nuclear plans.   The third form of foreign intervention was the painstaking, step-by-step prodding of domestic institutional and legal reforms of Arab societies championed by the European Union since 1995, and more recently in a slightly more inept form by the U.S.-dominated G-8 group of industrial nations. Gains have been thin to date. The fourth, and most intriguing, intervention technique, also dominated by the U.S., was the pressure exerted on individual countries over specific issues, using a combination of public statements by American senior officials and private warnings and cajoling. The best examples of this were the quests to push forward electoral reform and expanded voting in Egypt and Kuwait. Activists in both countries say privately that Washington"s pressure played an important role in pushing these two Arab systems to evolve somewhat.   The cumulative lesson from this year"s three political trends, it seems, is that under certain conditions there is indeed a middle ground where Arabs and Westerners can meet and work together for common political goals. Indigenous Arab activists and those behind external diplomatic efforts can fortify each other if they jointly define a common set of goals that respond to reasonable demands on both sides; and if they anchor the entire process of change in legal and political legitimacy, whether in the UN, in international law, or in negotiated accords.   My hunch is that the good trends of the past year, including citizen activism and small steps to democracy, tend to result from sensible cooperation between Arabs and Westerners; conversely, the bad news from Iraq, Palestine, Sudan and aspects of the Lebanese situation usually reflects the consequences of unilateralism, gangsterism, and militarism. Why Israel consistently gets a free ride from all this remains more than intriguing; it often also drives some of the resentment that translates into extremism and violence throughout this region.   Happy New Year to all, especially to my fellow average Arab citizens, whose stoicism, heroism and impregnable humanity remain the defining characteristic of these troubled but valiant lands.
	Zapatistas leave jungle for tour of Mexico by Ioan Grillo The Associated Press Mexico   La Garrucha, Mexico. 01 January 2006   Zapatista rebels aboard rickety trucks and buses streamed out of this village Sunday, leaving their jungle strongholds for the first time in four years to launch a six-month tour of Mexico aimed at reshaping the nation''s politics.   Thousands of supporters cheered as the Indian rights movement''s ski-masked spokesman, Subcomandante Marcos, roared through La Garrucha on a black motorcycle with a Mexican flag tied to the back and the initials of the Zapatista military army, EZLN, painted in red on the front.   Led by Marcos, the caravan departed from this village of ramshackle huts on a trip that will take it to all 31 states and Mexico City in a bid to impact Mexico''s July presidential election.   Identified by Mexico''s government as a former university lecturer, Marcos has said the tour will allow Zapatista leaders to reach out to leftist groups across the country, creating a national movement that will "turn Mexico on its head."   The rebels have pledged to move away from armed struggle and toward politics, but the group has not clearly defined what form of political participation it will adopt. Marcos, known for the pipe and guns he often carries in public, has abandoned his military title in favor of the civilian moniker "Delegate Zero."   It is the first time the group has left its strongholds in the jungles of southernmost Chiapas state since a triumphant tour to Mexico City in the name of Indian rights that made international headlines in 2001. The Zapatistas largely disappeared from public view following that trip.   President Vicente Fox ended 71 straight years of single-party rule when he took office in 2000, but is barred from running again. A favorite to replace him during elections in July is former Mexico City mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, of the leftist Democratic Revolution Party.   In the run-up to the tour, which the Zapatistas call "the other campaign," Marcos has sharply criticized Lopez Obrador. He also has said the Zapatistas won''t run for elected office or join Mexico''s mainstream political process.   In speeches made on a wooden stage in La Garrucha''s main square before the tour began, regional rebel leaders offered kind words to non-Zapatista leftist groups, some who they have fought with in the past.   "To the brothers who aren''t Zapatistas, we respect all of you, whatever your organization, party or religion," said a masked man, introduced as the leader of La Garrucha, a rebel village. "We aren''t looking for a fight with anybody."   It has been 12 years since Zapatistas seized several Chiapas towns in the name of Indians rights and socialism. A cease-fire with government forces quickly took hold, but there has since been sporadic violence between rebel supporters and other Indian groups in southern Mexico.   The first leg of the tour, which will take the delegation of Zapatista leaders from Chiapas to the US border, is San Cristobal de las Casas. The mountainous city is where the Zapatistas started their rebellion on New Year''s Day 1994, when thousands of gun-toting Indians took over the mayor''s office and declared war on the Mexican government.   Rebel supporter Alejandro Cruz, a 33-year-old high school teacher from Mexico City, said the Zapatistas could be looking to become an organization like the Brazilian landless peasant movement Sin Tierra, which doesn''t have its own candidates but has a strong influence on elections. "The tour is clearly part of a Zapatista strategy to get legal recognition," Cruz said. "Without that they have a very uncertain future."   Zapatista peasant farmer Ricardo Mendez, 28, a native speaker of the Mayan tongue Tzeltal, said that the rebels want to expand their influence. "We will never die. Look how many of us there are," Mendez said, pointing to thousands of masked men and women and children in the village square.   Among the rebel''s sympathizers gathered in La Garrucha was a group organized by Higher Grounds, a company from Lake Leelanau, Mich., which buys coffee from Zapatista communities at prices about 50 percent above the market rate. Higher Grounds owner Chris Treter, 31, said the Zapatista ideas could resonate north of the Rio Grande. "There are a lot of people in Mexico and in the United States who are disenfranchised and are looking for a voice they can''t find in the political parties," Treter said.
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