UN warns Urban Populations set to Double by OneWorld / The Independent 11:36am 28th Jun, 2007   27 June 2007 (OneWorld)    Humanity will have to undergo a "revolution in thinking" in order to deal with the doubling of urban populations in Africa and Asia by 2030, warns UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund.    In a new report released today, "The State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth", the organization maintains that over 30 years, the population of African and Asian cities will double, adding 1.7 billion people-more than the populations of China and the United States combined.    "What happens in the cities of Africa and Asia and other regions will shape our common future," says UNFPA Executive Director, Thoraya Ahmed Obaid. "We must abandon a mindset that resists urbanization and act now to begin a concerted global effort to help cities unleash their potential to spur economic growth and solve social problems."    To take advantage of potential opportunities, governments must prepare for the coming growth. "If they wait, it will be too late," she says. "This wave of urbanization is without precedent. The changes are too large and too fast to allow planners and policymakers simply to react: In Africa and Asia, the number of people living in cities increases by approximately 1 million, on average, each week. Leaders need to be proactive and take far-sighted action to fully exploit the opportunities that urbanization offers."    According to the report, as of 2008, more than half the world"s current 6.7 billion people will live in cities. Though mega-cities (more than 10 million people) will continue to grow, most people will be living in cities of 500,000 or fewer.    By 2030, the urban population will rise to 5 billion, or 60 per cent of world population. Globally, all future population growth will take place in cities, nearly all of it in Asia, Africa and Latin America. In Asia and Africa, this marks a decisive shift from rural to urban growth, changing a balance that has lasted for millennia.    Urbanization-the rise in the urban share of total population-is inevitable, says the report, and could be considered a positive development. No country in the industrial age has achieved significant economic growth without urbanization.    The State of World Population 2007 reports that, although most new urbanites will be poor, they must be part of the solution. Assisting them to meet their needs-for housing, health care, education and employment-could also unleash the potential of urban-dwellers to power economic growth.    "The battle for the Millennium Development Goals to halve extreme poverty by 2015 will be won or lost in the cities of the developing world," says Ms. Obaid. "This means accepting the rights of poor people to live in cities and working with their creativity to tackle potential problems and generate new solutions."    The response of national and municipal governments to urban growth has often been to try to discourage, prevent or even reverse migration, say report authors-despite the fact that migration can actually be beneficial. But it is a failed policy, one that has resulted in less housing for the poor and increased slum growth. It also limits opportunities for the urban poor to improve their lives and to contribute fully to their communities and neighbourhoods. According to the report, city authorities and urban planners should make it a priority to provide for the shelter needs of the urban poor.    They should offer the poor secure tenure on land that is outfitted with power, water and sanitation services. Those living in poor communities should have access to education and health care and should be encouraged to build their own homes.    Most urban growth results from natural increase rather than migration. To reduce the pace of growth, policymakers should support interventions such as poverty reduction initiatives, investments in the empowerment of women, education-particularly of women and girls-and health, including reproductive health and family planning services.    Half of the urban population is under the age of 25. The Youth Supplement, Growing Up Urban, tells the stories of 10 young people who have migrated to, or are growing up in, cities. It also highlights the special needs of young people-for education and health care, for protection from violence, for employment and for integration into the wider society. Meeting these needs will help many escape their own impoverished upbringing.    Policymakers and planners need to harness the potential of cities to improve the lives of all. Three initiatives stand out:    * Accept the right of poor people to the city, abandoning attempts to discourage migration and prevent urban growth. City authorities should work closely with organizations of the urban poor, including women"s organizations.    * Adopt a broad and long-term vision of the use of urban space. This means, among other things, providing minimally serviced land for housing and planning in advance to promote sustainable land use both within cities and in the surrounding areas.    * Begin a concerted international effort to support strategies for the urban future.    27 June 2007    UN warns urban populations set to double, by Daniel Howden. (The Independent/UK)    The combined forces of population growth and urbanisation are creating a planet of slums, where the urban population will have doubled by 2030, according to a report released by the United Nations today.    The shanty towns that choke the cities of Africa and Asia are experiencing unstoppable growth, expanding by more than a million people every week, according to the "state of the world"s population" report.    The UN"s findings echo recent predictions that 2008 will see a watershed in human history as the balance of the world"s population tips from rural to urban. Many of the new urbanites will be poor and the shelters into which they move, or are born, will be slums.    "The growth of cities will be the single largest influence on development in the 21st century," the report states. It maintains that over the next 30 years, the population of African and Asian cities will double, adding 1.7 billion people - more than the current populations of the US and China combined.    In this new world the majority of theurban poor will be under 25, unemployed and vulnerable to fundamentalism, Christian and Islamic.    Mike Davis, a population expert, described this emerging underclass in his recent work Planet of Slums as: "A billion-strong global proletariat ejected from the formal economy, with Islam and Pentecostalism as songs for the dispossessed."    While some critics have accused Mr Davis of scaremongering, the UN"s findings appear to back many of his basic assertions.    George Martine, a demographer and the author of today"s report, said: "The urbanisation is jolting mentalities and subjecting them to new influences. This is a historical situation. And now one of the ways for people to reorganise themselves in this urban world is to associate themselves with new or strong, fundamentalist religion."    The rise of radical Islam in Africa, from the outskirts of Jakarta to the slums of Egypt, is well documented but the continent is also experiencing a Christian shift, with Pentecostalism winning converts from Uganda to the Democratic Republic of Congo.    In Latin America, identified by the UN as the other engine of urban growth, the once all-encompassing Catholic Church is battling for hearts and minds with radical evangelical churches.    Urbanisation is inevitable, the report warns, and calls on planners to accept that the poor have the right to a place in the city. It argues that this influx can be positive if properly managed. No country in the industrial age has enjoyed economic growth without urbanisation.    "It"s pointless trying to control urban growth by stopping migration," Mr Martine said. "It doesn"t work. We have to change mindsets and take a different stance. We"re at a crossroads and can still make decisions which will make cities sustainable. If we don"t make the right decisions the result will be chaos."    UN-Habitat uses the term "slum household" to describe a group of individuals living under the same roof in an urban area who lack one or more of the following: durable housing, sufficient living area, secure tenure and access to clean water and sanitation.    Until now the response of national and municipal governments to ballooning growth has been to discourage newcomers but this is a failed policy, the report argues. "It has resulted in less housing for the poor and increased slum growth," the reports says. "It also limits opportunities for the urban poor to improve their lives and to contribute fully to their communities and neighbourhoods."    Mr Martine argues for a more positive approach to urbanisation, saying that by providing land for housing with at least some services and planning in advance to promote sustainability, progress can be achieved.    Slums have been part of human communities since Mesopotamia but our modern concept of segregated slums for the poor comes from the Industrial Revolution. The difference between then and now is a question of scale, with today"s slum dwellers being one-in-three of all city dwellers.    More than 90 per cent of this underclass are in the developing world, with South Asia having the largest share, followed by eastern Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. In sub-Saharan Africa, growth has become synonymous with slums and 72 per cent of the population live in slum conditions.    Growth of urbanisation    * By 2008, more than half of the world"s current 6.7billion population will live in cities.    * By 2030, the urban population will have risen to 5 billion, 60 per cent of the world"s population.    * Half of the world"s urban population is currently under 25. By 2030, young people will make up the vast majority of the 5 billion urban dwellers.    * Between 2000 and 2030, Asia"s urban population will increase from 1.3 billion to 2.64 billion. Africa"s population will rise from 294 million to 742 million, Latin America and the Caribbean from 394 million to 609million.    * Mega-cities do not have a monopoly on population growth. More than half of the urban world lives in cities with a population of less than 500,000. Visit the related web page
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