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Evidence of Human-Caused Global Warming Unequivocal
by PBS / ENS / Reuters / AFP
8:26am 2nd Feb, 2007
 
2 February 2007
  
Evidence is now ‘unequivocal’ that humans are causing global warming.(UN News)
  
Changes in the atmosphere, the oceans and glaciers and ice caps now show unequivocally that the world is warming due to human activities, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in new report released today in Paris.
  
Welcoming the findings, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon pointed to the “scientific consensus regarding the quickening and threatening pace of human-induced climate change” and called for the global response “to move much more rapidly as well, and with more determination.”
  
In a statement released by his spokesman, the Secretary-General said the new study and expected follow-up IPCC reports “will be critical guides for the UN’s response to anthropogenic climate change,” and will support action by those concerned globally, nationally and locally.
  
The IPCC, which brings together the world’s leading climate scientists and experts, concluded that major advances in climate modelling and the collection and analysis of data now give scientists “very high confidence” – at least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct – in their understanding of how human activities are causing the world to warm. This level of confidence is much greater than the IPCC indicated in their last report in 2001. Today’s report, confirms that it is “very likely” that humanity’s emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases have caused most of the global temperature rise observed since the mid-20th century. The report says that it is likely that effect of human activity since 1750 is five times greater than the effect of fluctuations in the sun’s output.
  
Susan Soloman, co-chair of the IPCC working group that produced the report, said records from ice cores, going back 10,000 years, show a dramatic rise in greenhouse gases from the onset of the industrial era. “There can be no question that the increase in these greenhouse gases are dominated by human activity.”
  
Three years in the making, the report is based on a thorough review of the most-up-to-date, peer-reviewed scientific literature available worldwide. IPCC Chair Rajendra Pachuari said the science has “moved on” and the extent of knowledge and the research carried is now several steps beyond what was possible for the last report.
  
The report describes an accelerating transition to a warmer world – an increase of 3°C is expected this century – marked by more extreme temperatures including heat waves, new wind patterns, worsening drought in some regions, heavier precipitation in others, melting glaciers and Arctic ice, and rising global average sea levels.
  
“This report by the IPCC represents the most rigorous and comprehensive assessment possible of the current state of climate science and has considerably narrowed the uncertainties of the 2001 report,” said Michel Jarraud, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
  
“The 2nd of February, 2007 in Paris will perhaps one day be remembered as the day where the question mark was removed behind the debate on whether climate change has anything to do with human activity on this planet,” said Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
  
“Momentum for action is building; this new report should spur policymakers to get off the fence and put strong and effective policies in place to tackle greenhouse gas emissions,” he said.
  
The report also concludes that:
  
The world’s average surface temperature has increased by around 0.74°C over the past 100 years (1906 - 2005). A warming of about 0.2°C is projected for each of the next two decades.
  
The best estimates for sea-level rise due to ocean expansion and glacier melt by the end of the century (compared to 1989 – 1999 levels) have narrowed to 28 - 58 cm, versus 9 - 88 cm in the 2001 report, due to improved understanding. However, larger values of up to 1 m by 2100 cannot be ruled out if ice sheets continue to melt as temperature rises.
  
Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Large areas of the Arctic Ocean could lose year-round ice cover by the end of the 21st century if human emissions reach the higher end of current estimates. The extent of Arctic sea ice has already shrunk by about 2.7 per cent per decade since 1978, with the summer minimum declining by about 7.1 per cent per decade.
  
Snow cover has decreased in most regions, especially in spring. The maximum extent of frozen ground in the winter/spring season decreased by about 7 per cent in the Northern Hemisphere over the latter half of the 20th century. The average freezing date for rivers and lakes in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 150 years has arrived later by some 5.8 days per century, while the average break-up date has arrived earlier by 6.5 days per century.
  
It is “very likely” that precipitation will increase at high latitudes and “likely” it will decrease over most subtropical land regions. The pattern of these changes is similar to what has been observed during the 20th century.
  
It is “very likely” that the upward trend in hot extremes and heat waves will continue. The duration and intensity of drought has increased over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. The Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia have already become drier during the 20th century.
  
The number of tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) per year is projected to decline. However, the intensity of these storms is expected to increase, with higher peak wind speeds and more intense precipitation, due to warmer ocean waters.
  
The IPCC does not conduct new research. Instead, its mandate is to make policy-relevant assessments of the existing worldwide literature on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of climate change. Its reports have played a major role in inspiring governments to adopt and implement the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, a binding pact on greenhouse gas emissions.
  
February 2, 2007
  
U.N. Panel Says Humans "Very Likely" Causing Global Warming.(PBS Online Newshour)
  
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report Friday saying temperatures and sea levels will continue to rise for centuries even if greenhouse gas emissions stabilize. An expert and a report co-author discuss the findings.
  
MARGARET WARNER: Today"s announcement in Paris from the U.N."s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was its fourth such assessment since 1990 and its most urgent warning yet about global warming: what"s already occurred, and what lies ahead.
  
By unanimous agreement, the 2,500 scientists and government representatives said there"s now at least a 90-percent certainty that mankind is to blame for the warming already being observed.
  
As to the future, the projections were stark. Among them: in this century, the planet will warm up by between three and nearly eight degrees Fahrenheit; the weather will be hotter everywhere, with some areas becoming dryer, while others see more rain; and sea levels will rise.
  
Yvo de Boer, head of the U.N. Climate Secretariat, said it"s time for the world to act.
  
YVO DE BOER, U.N. Climate Secretariat: It"s important that all governments have agreed to the conclusions of the scientists, and therefore these conclusions can no longer be the subject of discussion in the political negotiations, but should be considered as a given, and that"s an important step forward. The signal that we"ve received from the science today is crystal clear.
  
MARGARET WARNER: The next phase of the group"s report, due this spring, will focus on the impact of global warming and how humans might adapt to it.
  
For more now on these findings, we turn to Kevin Trenberth, one of the draft contributing authors of the report. He is the director of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. And he joins us from Paris. And Michael Oppenheimer, professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University"s Woodrow Wilson school, he"s also a member of the U.N. climate change panel and a contributor to the report.
  
Mr. Trenberth, beginning with you, the finding that"s attracted the most attention today is the one saying that there is really 90-percent certainty now that the climate warming that"s already occurred since the middle of the last century is due to human activity. How much warming has there been? And what lead you to that kind of certainty that mankind is at the root of it?
  
KEVIN TRENBERTH, National Center for Atmospheric Research: Well, there"s two-steps to this. The first one is what has happened, the observations of what has happened. And I thought a very important statement in the report, you know, to quote, is that, "Warming of the climate is unequivocal."
  
And then it goes on to qualify that, and say that, you know, it"s not just the global mean temperatures which, you know, the six years since the last report are in the top warmest seven years on record, but also a whole host of other variables, from snow cover and sea ice, rising sea levels, melting glaciers, drought around the world, changes in hurricanes, all of these kinds of things come together to provide really compelling evidence from many different lines of evidence to suggest that, indeed, warming is happening.
  
In addition, the models have improved substantially so that they can now simulate a lot of what has happened in the models themselves. And the ability to match those things provides a lot more confidence than in what we can say in the future.
  
And this has led to this statement, which is actually greater than 90-percent certainty. It is very likely that global warming that is happening is due to human activities.
  
If we don"t bring the emissions under control, we can expect potentially very, very much greater changes than what we have already seen.
  
MARGARET WARNER: Professor Oppenheimer, let me go to you. First of all, if you use the word model, do explain what a model is. But what jumps out at you about this report? You worked on the previous one, as well, as I understand.
  
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University"s Woodrow Wilson School: Right. What jumps out at me, in addition to what Kevin mentioned, is the fact that both the temperature increase and the rate of sea level rise have accelerated.
  
And, furthermore, that, unless the emissions that are causing the climate change are brought under control, we can expect more climate change in the future. In fact, we can expect more climate change regardless.
  
But if we don"t bring the emissions under control, we can expect potentially very, very much greater changes than what we have already seen. So to use maybe an unfortunate metaphor, this is just the tip of the iceberg compared to what may be in store for us in the future.
  
MARGARET WARNER: But, Professor, why couldn"t it be just a normal cyclical development?
  
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER: Well, as Kevin has said, the matching of what the computer models project for what the pattern of warming and the pattern of climate change should be with what has actually been measured now for, you know, essentially going back over a hundred years, shows convincingly and definitely that the warming is by and large due to human activity and that we will get more substantial warming in the future.
  
The extremes of water are going to be much more unmanageable, both the drought extreme and the risk of floods.
  
MARGARET WARNER: Kevin Trenberth, the report predicted or forecast that now, in this century - and I converted from Celsius to Fahrenheit, so I hope this is correct - that the planet is really sure to warm up between 3.2 and 7.8 degrees Fahrenheit. Give us an understanding of, first of all, how dramatic that is and what it might lead to.
  
KEVIN TRENBERTH: Well, the warming we"ve had is around about -- let"s see. It"s 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since the beginning of the 20th century and about 1 degree Fahrenheit since about 1970. So the rate of warming has increased. That"s one of the key aspects of the global temperature increases.
  
The warming is also greater overland and at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere in the Arctic region, and so this is the thing that affects the polar bears and their livelihood.
  
And so, with a greater warming, we expect to - the amplification of the effects we"re already seeing. So around the subtropical region, there is a drying that"s been going on, increases in droughts, and some increases in rainfall at higher latitudes. And it is rainfall, some of the what used to be snowfall is now occurring as rain.
  
And so there are large-scale patterns of changes in the rainfall and the rainfall distribution, which has real consequences for human activities and for the environment, because it increases the risk of droughts in the subtropics and other places around the world, because, as temperatures warm up, it creates a drying effect off the atmosphere, on the surface.
  
And at the same time, in other places where it does rain, it"s likely to rain harder. And this relates also to changes in hurricanes. And so it means that the extremes of water are going to be much more unmanageable, both the drought extreme and the risk of floods.
  
The last time the poles were as warm as they could get over the next few decades, due to the greenhouse gases, substantial parts of the Greenland ice sheet and perhaps the Antarctic ice sheet had either melted or disintegrated away into the ocean.
  
MARGARET WARNER: So, Professor Oppenheimer, which areas of the planet where lots of - where many people live are most at risk?
  
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER: Well, I"m most worried about the coastal zones everywhere. One sort of nugget in the report is that the last time the poles were as warm as they could get over the next few decades, due to the greenhouse gases, substantial parts of the Greenland ice sheet and perhaps the Antarctic ice sheet had either melted or disintegrated away into the ocean. And sea level was something like 15 feet higher than today.
  
Now, that isn"t going to happen overnight. It"s a relatively slow process. But we may be essentially remaking the face of the Earth by putting a lot more water into the ocean, reconfiguring the coastal zone, drowning areas like river deltas, where tens of millions of people live in some countries, like the Netherlands, Bangladesh, the Louisiana delta in this country.
  
And to my mind, this is the most pervasive and most threatening consequence of global warming. It will be very expensive. And once it gets under way, it"s essentially impossible to stop.
  
MARGARET WARNER: Why is that?
  
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER: There"s a long inertia in the system. Ice does not respond immediately. The warming could push us to the point, with only a relatively few degrees of global warming, where we would start to lose, eventually, large portions of the ice sheets.
  
So policymakers ought to take heed of that and start to think about reining in the warming before we cross thresholds that we"re not even sure of the location of.The policy decisions that are made today, with regards to emissions and what we put into the atmosphere, are very important. But, indeed, you also need to recognize that we"re going to have to live with some climate change.
  
MARGARET WARNER: So, Kevin Trenberth, go to that point about what really can be done. Your report was saying it"s inevitable, is it not, that some warming is going to occur no matter what we did. I mean, if tomorrow we stopped emissions, all emissions, which obviously isn"t going to happen, the planet would still continue warming?
  
KEVIN TRENBERTH: This is correct. And this relates to the fact that the carbon dioxide that we"ve already put into the atmosphere has a long lifetime. And so, even if we don"t put anymore in, what we"ve already got hangs around there for many decades, maybe more than a century. And so that"s one component.
  
And then the other component is the fact that the oceans are still responding to the climate change that we"ve already had, the changes in the heat that"s flowing through the climate system. And so that has an adjustment time of order of 20 years.
  
And this means that these kinds of things are going to occur no matter what we do in the future. It"s mainly after about 30 years or so that what we do now has its main impact, and it can be very important.
  
And so further out, the policy decisions that are made today, with regards to emissions and what we put into the atmosphere, are very important. But, indeed, you also need to recognize that we"re going to have to live with some climate change. And that relates then very much to a proper assessment of the impacts and how you adapt to those changes that we"re expecting to happen in the future.
  
MARGARET WARNER: Very briefly, Professor Oppenheimer, so how much control does mankind have at this point over this process?
  
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER: The bottom line is that the future, by and large, still rests in our hands, that we can avert the most threatening part of the warming, but we will have to start action now. We can"t wait around. And it"s encouraging that California, the Northeastern states, the European countries have all introduced caps on emissions and then intend to bring them down. Really Washington has to take some leadership.
  
February 2, 2007
  
Evidence of Human-Caused Global Warming Unequivocal. (Environment News Service)
  
Changes in the atmosphere, the oceans, glaciers and ice caps show unequivocally that the Earth is warming, according to the first global assessment of climate change science in six years.
  
The report confirms that the observed increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1750 is the result of human activities.
  
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, concludes that advances in climate modeling and the collection and analysis of data now give scientists 90 percent confidence in their understanding of how human activities are causing the world to warm.
  
This level of confidence is much greater than what could be achieved in 2001 when the IPCC issued its last assessment.
  
Introducing the report today in Paris, Dr. Susan Solomon, an American atmospheric chemist, said it is "very likely," a 90 percent probability, that most of the observed increase in temperatures is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.
  
The 2001 assessment said it was "likely," a probability of 66 percent.
  
The rapid rise in global concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, all greenhouse gases, is so different from the patterns for thousands of years previous, "there is no doubt that increase is dominated by human activity," said Solomon, who helped to identify the mechanism that created the Antarctic ozone hole.
  
IPCC Chairman Dr. R.K. Pachauri of India called the entire process of preparing the document, the first of four to be released this year by the panel, "a unique example of science in the service of society."
  
He said 600 authors from 40 countries worked on the report, which was then assessed by 600 reviewers. Over the past several days, the whole thing was discussed by 300 delegations from 113 countries meeting in Paris.
  
"This is the strength of the IPCC process," said Dr. Pachauri. The scientists provide the knowledge, this is discussed and adopted by governments. It provides credibility."
  
The report describes an accelerating transition to a warmer world marked by more extreme temperatures, heat waves, new wind patterns, worsening drought in some regions, heavier precipitation in others, melting glaciers and Arctic ice, and rising global average sea levels. For the first time, the report provides evidence that the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland are losing mass and contributing to sea level rise. An even greater degree of warming would likely have occurred if emissions of pollution particles and other aerosols had not offset some of the impact of greenhouse gases, by reflecting sunlight back out to space, the scientists said.
  
Solomon said the concentrations of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere will continue to warm the planet for centuries, even if humans stabilize emissions within the next 10 years.
  
"This report by the IPCC represents the most rigorous and comprehensive assessment possible of the current state of climate science and has considerably narrowed the uncertainties of the 2001 report," said Michel Jarraud, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, WMO.
  
"While the conclusions are disturbing, decision makers are now armed with the latest facts and will be better able to respond to these realities," Jarraud said.
  
"The speed with which melting ice sheets are raising sea levels is uncertain, but the report makes clear that sea levels will rise inexorably over the coming centuries. It is a question of when and how much, and not if," he said.
  
"In our daily lives we all respond urgently to dangers that are much less likely than climate change to affect the future of our children," said Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP, which, together with the WMO, established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1988.
  
"February 2nd will be remembered as the date when uncertainty was removed as to whether humans had anything to do with climate change on this planet," said Steiner. "We are looking for an unequivocal response from politicians. The evidence is on the table, we no longer have to debate that part of it."
  
"Nine thousand children will be born worldwide during this one hour press conference," said Steiner, and it differs where you are born. African chidlren will be faced with new diseases, new droughts, may have to leave their homes because Africa may have 30 percent of its coastal infrastructure destroyed by sea level rise.
  
Many Asians will be turned into environmental refugees as rising sea levels claim their lands, Steiner warned.
  
"The implications of global warming over the coming decades for our industrial economy, water supplies, agriculture, biological diversity and even geopolitics are massive," he said.
  
"Momentum for action is building," Steiner said. "This new report should spur policymakers to get off the fence and put strong and effective policies in place to tackle greenhouse gas emissions."
  
The IPCC Working Group I report, "The Physical Science Basis," concludes that:
  
If atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases double compared to pre-industrial levels, this would "likely" cause an average warming of around 3°C (5.4°F), with a range of 2 to 4.5°C (3.6 - 8.1°F).
  
For the first time, the IPCC is providing best estimates for the warming projected to result from particular increases in greenhouse gases that could occur after the 21st century, along with uncertainty ranges based on more comprehensive modeling.
  
A greenhouse gas level of 650 parts per million (ppm) would "likely" warm the global climate by around 3.6°C, while 750 ppm would lead to a 4.3°C warming, 1,000 ppm to 5.5°C and 1,200 ppm to 6.3°C.
  
Future greenhouse gas concentrations are difficult to predict and will depend on economic growth, new technologies and policies and other factors.
  
The world’s average surface temperature has increased by around 0.74°C over the past 100 years (1906 - 2005).
  
This figure is higher than the 2001 report’s 100-year estimate of 0.6°C due to the recent series of extremely warm years, with 11 of the last 12 years ranking among the 12 warmest years since modern records began around 1850.
  
A warming of about 0.2°C is projected for each of the next two decades.
  
The best estimates for sea-level rise due to ocean expansion and glacier melt by the end of the century (compared to 1989 – 1999 levels) have narrowed to 28 - 58 cm, versus 9 - 88 cm in the 2001 report, due to improved understanding.
  
However, larger values of up to one meter (39 inches) by 2100 cannot be ruled out if ice sheets continue to melt as temperature rises. The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than at present for an extended period, about 125,000 years ago, reductions in polar ice volume caused the sea level to rise by four to six meters.
  
Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Large areas of the Arctic Ocean could lose year-round ice cover by the end of the 21st century if human emissions reach the higher end of current estimates.
  
The extent of Arctic sea ice has already shrunk by about 2.7 percent per decade since 1978, with the summer minimum declining by about 7.4 percent per decade.
  
Snow cover has decreased in most regions, especially in spring. The maximum extent of frozen ground in the winter/spring season decreased by about 7 percent in the Northern Hemisphere over the latter half of the 20th century.
  
The average freezing date for rivers and lakes in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 150 years has arrived later by some 5.8 days per century, while the average break-up date has arrived earlier by 6.5 days per century.
  
It is "very likely" that precipitation will increase at high latitudes and "likely" it will decrease over most subtropical land regions. The pattern of these changes is similar to what has been observed during the 20th century.
  
It is "very likely" that the upward trend in hot extremes and heat waves will continue. The duration and intensity of drought has increased over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. The Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia have already become drier during the 20th century.
  
The amounts of carbon dioxide and methane now in the atmosphere far exceed pre-industrial values going back 650,000 years.
  
Concentrations of carbon dioxide have already risen from a pre-industrial level of 280 ppm to around 379 ppm in 2005, while methane concentrations have risen from 715 parts per billion (ppb) to 1,774 in 2005.
  
A number of widely discussed uncertainties have been resolved. The temperature record of the lower atmosphere from satellite measurements has been reconciled with the ground-based record.
  
Key remaining uncertainties involve the roles played by clouds, glaciers and ice caps, oceans, deforestation and other land-use change, and the linking of climate and biogeochemical cycles.
  
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change does not conduct new research. Instead, its mandate is to make policy relevant assessments of the existing worldwide literature on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of climate change.
  
Its reports have played a major role in inspiring governments to adopt and implement the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.
  
The Summary for Policymakers for IPCC Working Group I, which was finalized line-by-line by governments during the course of this week, has now been posted in English at www.ipcc.ch. The full underlying report – "Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis" – will be published by Cambridge University Press.
  
The Working Group II report on climate impacts and adaptation will be launched in Brussels on April 6.
  
The Working Group III report on mitigation will be launched in Bangkok on May 4.
  
A Synthesis Report will be adopted in Valencia, Spain on November 16. Dr. Pachauri says this 30 page synthesis of the three Working Group reports will make it possible for a prime minister, a president or a CEO to understand it during a train ride from Paris to Brussels or wherever they are travelling.
  
Together, the four volumes will make up the IPCC’s fourth assessment report. Previous reports were published in 1990, 1995 and 2001.
  
2.2.2007. (Reuters)
  
The UN climate panel issued its strongest warning yet that human activities are causing global warming that may bring more drought, heatwaves and rising seas.
  
The IPCC, grouping 2,500 scientists from 130 countries, is also set to say that oceans will keep rising for more than 1,000 years even if governments stabilise greenhouse gas emissions.
  
The report is the first of four this year by the panel that will outline threats of warming.
  
The Paris study, looking at the science of global warming, will also project a "best estimate" that temperatures will rise by three degrees Celsius by 2100 over pre-industrial levels, the biggest change in a century for thousands of years. It says bigger gains, of up to 6.3 degrees in one model, cannot be ruled out but do not fit well with other data. The world is now about five degrees warmer than during the last Ice Age.
  
The draft projects that Arctic ice will shrink, and perhaps disappear in summers by 2100, while heatwaves and downpours would get more frequent. The numbers of tropical hurricanes and typhoons might decrease but the storms would become stronger.
  
And sea levels are likely to rise by between 28 and 43cm this century. Rising seas threaten low-lying Pacific islands and low-lying coastal nations from Bangladesh to the Netherlands.
  
"Governments planning coastal defences have to live with large uncertainties for now, and quite some time in future," said Stefan Rahmstorf of Germany"s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
  
Mr Rahmstorf wrote a report last year saying that observations of past changes indicated a bigger rise by 2100, of 50-140cm.
  
The Eiffel Tower in Paris, near where the IPCC experts were meeting, was to shut off its famous night-time illuminations for five minutes on Thursday night local time to draw attention to energy use.
  
UN officials hope the IPCC report will spur stalled talks on expanding the fight against global warming.
  
Thirty five industrial nations aim to cut emissions of greenhouse gases to five percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12 under the UN"s Kyoto Protocol and want outsiders such as the United States, China and India to do more.
  
Last week, US President George W Bush said climate change was a "serious challenge".
  
But he has stopped short of capping emissions despite pressure from Democrats who control both houses of Congress - arguing Kyoto would damage the economy.
  
February 2, 2007
  
Scientists challenge UN climate panel on rising oceans. (ABC News)
  
A group of scientists say sea levels are rising faster than predicted amid global warming, in a challenge to the UN"s climate panel, which is set to issue a report toning down the threat of rising oceans.
  
The researchers, from Australia, the United States, Germany, France and Britain, wrote in the journal Science that seas have been edging up more rapidly since 1990 than at any time in more than a century, outpacing computer projections.
  
Dr John Church is a member of an international six-person team of climate scientists and works for the CSIRO in Tasmania.
  
The report warns that global temperatures could rise by up to 5.8 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years.
  
Dr Church has also cautioned against suggestions that the UN"s Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has previously over-estimated the rate of climate change.
  
"We have just published overnight a report which stresses that sea level has been rising over the last 15 years and compares our observations with the projections of the last IPCC report and that indicates that sea levels have been rising at the upper end of the projections from the last IPCC report," he said.
  
30.1.2007.
  
Glaciers shrink as world warms. (AFP)
  
New figures released overnight reveal the extent to which climate change is affecting the world"s glaciers.
  
They show that 30 reference glaciers monitored by the Swiss-based World Glacier Monitoring Service lost about 66 centimetres in thickness on average in 2005, bringing the loss to about 10.5 metres on average since 1980.
  
With a mountain of data in front of them and demands for action coming from behind, the world"s top climate experts meeting in Paris have this week launched a massive review of the evidence of global warming.
  
This Friday, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release its first assessment since 2001, in a document likely to have far-reaching political and economic repercussions.
  
"Concerns about climate change and public awareness of the subject are at an all-time high," noted Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC"s chairman. "At no time in the past has there been a greater global appetite for knowledge on any subject than there is today on the scientific facts underlying the reality of global climate change."
  
Christian Brodhag, representing the French hosts, said "the fight against climate change" had become cemented into national and European policy.
  
Mr Brodhag said that the 2003 heatwave in France, which killed an estimated 15,000 people, mainly the elderly, had awoken his country to the danger. "This is why our fellow citizens no longer question climate change."
  
But one delegate told AFP that many at the conference feared the draft report poorly reflected a sense of urgency, especially about mounting damage to Earth"s ice cover and polar caps.
  
As the scientists met, climbers for the environment group Greenpeace scaled the Eiffel Tower nearby to hang a protest banner of a thermometer, representing the threat of global warming.
  
The report will be the fourth since the IPCC was launched. The panel is highly regarded for its neutrality and caution, and wields a big influence over government policies, corporate strategies and even individual decision-making.
  
In Jakarta, Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said climate change was already happening and the developing world was bearing the brunt.
  
Weather-related disasters killed almost 3,000 people and caused 27 billion dollars in damage in China last year, he said, while the retreat of Himalayan glaciers was affecting water supplies in India and China.
  
"Over recent years the level of Lake Victoria in Africa has dropped by about 30 percent, affecting the livelihoods of 30 million people in one of the most unstable regions of the world who live around that lake," he said.
  
"What you see around the world is that the countries least able to respond to the consequences of climate change, least able to act to defend themselves against climate change are experiencing the greatest impacts," Mr de Boer said.

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