British Climate Change report warns of catastrophic consequences by AFP / The Independent 5:19pm 22nd Oct, 2006   30.10.2006.    New report turns up the heat. (AFP/Reuters)    A new report from Britain has warned of catastrophic consequences if the international community fails to act on climate change, with estimates it could cost $A9 trillion.    The findings were made in a report by former World Bank chief economist, Sir Nicholas Stern, which was commissioned by Britain’s finance ministry.    British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, has hailed it as "the most important report on the future which I have received since becoming Prime Minister."    "The report is clear: We are heading towards catastrophic tipping points in our climate unless we act," Mr Blair wrote in Britain’s tabloid newspaper, The Sun.    "The Stern report should be seen across the globe as the final word on why the world must act now to limit the damage we are doing to our planet.”    "The case for action is the final piece of the jigsaw to convince every single political leader, including those in America, China and India, that this must be top of their agenda," he argued.    The 700-page report focuses on the economic consequences of global warming, and is said to conclude that inaction could cost the world up to 3.68 trillion pounds ($A9 trillion).    The figure is estimated to be worth a fifth of the world''s wealth.    Prime Minister Blair has described climate change as "the greatest long-term threat to our planet.”    Mr Blair says that there is now an opportunity to avert the threat of global warming, and concludes: "I hope that politicians and individuals everywhere take it."    Britain''s opposition Conservative leader says he will put a wind turbine and solar panels on the roof of the prime minister''s official residence, 10 Downing Street, if he wins the next election.    "If they''d let me, yes", David Cameron said when asked by an interviewer whether he would be prepared to install the energy saving devices.    Cameron, 40, who became the party''s fifth leader in nine years last December, has been pushing environmental policies up the Conservative''s political agenda.    His comments came just before a government report is due to be published which will warn that ignoring climate change could lead to economic upheaval on the scale of the 1930s Depression.    A spokesman at Number 10 said he was not aware of any moves by the current government to install energy saving devices on the historic building, which has been the home of British prime ministers for over 200 years.    The Australian Labor Party says the government must tackle global warming amid concerns a failure to act would lead to global recession.    Labor''s treasury spokesman Wayne Swan last week met the report’s author, Sir Nicholas Stern, after he''d briefed the British cabinet on the economics of climate change.    Mr Swan says failure to act will lead to a world-wide recession and leave large sections of the globe under water in 50 years'' time.    But he says the government''s failure to ratify the Kyoto protocol on reducing greenhouse gas emissions means Australia is starting a long way behind.    October 20, 2006    Climate Change "will cause Refugee Crisis", by Michael McCarthy. (The lndependent/UK )    Mass movements of people across the world are likely to be one of the most dramatic effects of climate change in the coming century, a study suggests.    The report, from the aid agency Tearfund, raises the spectre of hundreds of millions of environmental refugees and says the main reason will be the effects of climate - from droughts and water shortages, from flooding and storm surges and from sea-level rise.    The study, "Feeling the Heat", says there are already an estimated 25 million environmental refugees, and this figure is likely to soar as rain patterns continue to change, floods and storms become more frequent and rising tides start to inundate low-lying countries such as Bangladesh or some of the Pacific islands.    Tearfund says that without urgent action, world governments will lose the fight to tackle the world water crisis and the growing threat of climate-change refugees in catastrophic numbers.    The report calls for governments at the UN Climate Change conference, beginning in Nairobi in a fortnight, to move towards a global framework for cutting climate-changing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide that goes beyond the existing climate treaty, the Kyoto protocol, and to commit billions more to help poor countries adapt to the coming changes.    "There will be millions more thirsty, hungry and ill poor people living in high-risk areas of the world by the end of the century," the report says. "It makes sense politically, economically and morally, for governments to act with urgency now."    Andy Atkins, advocacy director of Tearfund, said one of the most devastating impacts of climate change was on water supply. "In some parts of the world, floods, storms and poor rainfall are beginning to have catastrophic effects, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people," he said.    This process will be steadily exacerbated, the report says, by the differing yet equally serious changes predicted to be part of a warming world. While some parts of the globe may experience much less rainfall and thus drought, others regions will have much more intense rain likely to bring about flooding. Sea-level rise , which a recent report suggested could be up to 50cm by 2050, would at that rate breach 100,000 kms (62,000 miles) of coastline around the world.    The report says: "As floods, drought and storms increase climate change will have a potentially catastrophic impact on water supply, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. Poor people - like the 80 per cent of Malawi"s population who farm small plots - are reliant on rain for their harvests, and are least able to adapt to climate change. By exacerbating existing water stresses, climate change impacts many other areas of human development such as health and even industry."    It goes on: "Already, there are an estimated 25 million environmental refugees - more than half the number of political refugees. Experts such as the ecologist Norman Myers suggest this figure could soar to 200 million in less than 50 years. Unseen and uncounted, millions are already on the move in search of greater water security. In some countries, the exodus began years ago."    In the report"s foreword, Mr John Houghton, former chairman of the Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says politicians" strong words on climate change must now be matched by sufficient investment and strong action to cut global emissions, and help for the poorest nations adapt to climate change on their doorstep. A key to this will be helping poorer nations manage existing water supplies more efficiently.    "If your house is on fire, do you urgently try to save it, or throw your hands up in despair and walk away?" Sir John saysd. "Well, the house is on fire and it requires much more determined efforts to bring it under control and put it out. The UN climate change conference in Nairobi is an opportunity for failings to be addressed. Time is running out on us and world governments need to act much more responsibly, effectively and quickly."    The devastating impact    The report cites examples of where water problems are already causing a mass exodus or movement of people. They include:    * Poor crop yields are forcing more and more Mexicans to risk death by illegally fleeing to the US.    * One in five Brazilians born in the arid north-east of the country are moving to avoid drought.    * The spread of the Gobi desert, at a rate of 4,000 square miles a year, is forcing the populations of three provinces in China to abandon their homes.    * In Nigeria, 1,350 sq miles of land is turning to desert each year. Farmers and herdsmen are being forced to move to the cities.    * The population of Tuvalu, a group of eight Pacific islands north-east of Australia, is already being evacuated; nearly 3,000 Tuvalans have left so far.
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