Spanish Election sets off Global Shock Wave by Asia Times Online / Reuters / Agence France Presse 8:35pm 15th Mar, 2004   March 16, 2004    New leader vows to exit Iraq (Reuters)    Spain's next prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, has criticised outgoing Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar's unswerving support for United States foreign policy and has promised to pull Spain's 1300 troops out of Iraq.    He told a radio station no decision on troops in the US-led force in Iraq would be taken until he was in power and without wide political consultation. "But the Spanish troops in Iraq will come home," he added in his first post-election interview with Cadena SER radio.    "The war has been a disaster, the occupation continues to be a disaster, it has only generated violence," Mr Zapatero said.    Spanish troops will be withdrawn if there were no change in Iraq by June 30, the date the US has promised to transfer sovereignty to a provisional government, he said. With almost all votes counted, the socialists had won 42.6 per cent of the vote to the Popular Party's 37.6 per cent. With 164 seats in the lower house of parliament, 12 short of an absolute majority, the socialists will need to negotiate alliances to govern.    16 March, 2004. (Asia Times Online)    "Spanish Election sets off Global Shock Wave" by J Sean Curtin.    The surprise defeat of the conservative Popular Party in Spain's general election has sent political shock waves surging around the planet. The outgoing Spanish prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar, was a key supporter of US President George W Bush's war in Iraq, and his party's sudden ejection from office will be sorely felt in the White House. More alarming for Washington is the fact that Aznar's perceived closeness to Bush appears to be one of the key factors behind his party's stunning loss. The completely unexpected result has already created a sense of deep unease in London and Tokyo, both of whose leaders staunchly support Bush's stance on Iraq. The demise of Spain's powerful Popular Party also clearly demonstrates that Iraq has become an unpredictable factor in global politics.    After September 2002's unexpected re-election victory of anti-war German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, this is the second major European election in which the result has been significantly influenced by the conflict in Iraq. Ironically, while Bush's Iraq policy may not succeed in its stated aim of redrawing the political map of the Middle East, it is definitely having a huge impact in Europe.    The Spanish election result will alter the European power balance, making Bush's task of generating support for his Iraq policy even more difficult. Spain may even withdraw its troops from Iraq. The incoming Socialist Party is likely to be more closely allied with France and Germany, while British Prime Minister Tony Blair will lose one of the few European leaders who backed him in supporting Bush's preemptive Iraq war. This will further undermine Blair's influence within Europe.    In Britain, the Iraq war, which was domestically unpopular, is likely to dominate next year's anticipated general election. Many observers think Tony Blair may not even survive until then because of his Iraq-induced tumble in popularity. The British public is also now fearful of a Madrid-style terror attack being carried out on its soil. In Tokyo, Iraq also has the potential to topple Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, but his position is currently firmer than Blair's. No doubt, the post-mortem analysis of the Spanish election will be keenly examined in Washington, London and Tokyo.    Nick Hart, a British national living in Spain, comments, "The fact that a seemingly dead-certain election victory for the Popular Party can be completely overturned because of its leader's strong association with George Bush will strike fear in the heart of Tony Blair and might even unsettle Bush himself."    Madrid bombing changed the election result    Up until last Thursday's devastating bombings in Madrid, which killed 200 and injured more than 1,500 people, opinion polls had clearly shown that the conservative Popular Party would win the election by a comfortable margin. However, the widespread belief that an al-Qaeda-linked terror group was behind the mass murder completely changed the closing dynamics of the election.    Initially, the Popular Party insisted that the Basque separatist group ETA (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna, or Basque Homeland and Liberty) was responsible for the Madrid terror outrages, something that if true would have worked to the party's advantage because of its tough stance against the group. However, as it appeared more and more likely that an al-Qaeda affiliate was the real culprit, many people became angry with the government, which they accused of trying to manipulate the tragedy for its own ends.    Once news of the arrest of three Moroccans and two Indians in connection with the bombings became public, the national mood sharply shifted. It was also learned that one of the Moroccans had been previously linked to al-Qaeda. For the Popular Party, the final nail in the coffin came when it was announced that the police had a video message from an al-Qaeda-inspired group claiming responsibility for the attacks. The Moroccan-sounding Arabic voice said, "This is a response to the crimes that you have caused in the world, and specifically in Iraq and Afghanistan, and there will be more, if God wills it."    The night before the election, noisy demonstrations broke out around the Popular Party's headquarters in Madrid, with thousands of angry youths shouting that the government was lying to the public.    Spanish pollsters say a high turnout by young voters appears to have turned the election around at the last moment. Alfonso Cortina, a Spanish university student, summed up the feelings of many young Spaniards. He said, "We really wanted to know more information about the bombing before this vote, but we didn't get it. The government said it was ETA, but we know that many signs pointed to al-Qaeda, but still they said 'It is ETA.' The bombings made people think of the war in Iraq. For many, it stopped being an election and instead became a referendum on the war. I respect what Mr Aznar has done for the Spanish economy, but the war in Iraq was too wrong. I think this is why many people decided to vote against Partido Popular [Popular Party]."    On a larger than expected turnout, the Socialists captured nearly 43 percent of the vote while the Popular Party garnered about 38 percent. The Socialist Party's unexpected victory ends eight years of conservative rule.    The incoming Socialist Party prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, said before the election that if he became premier he would withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq unless there was United Nations backing for their deployment. However, at the time he did not realistically expect to win. In his first speech after the surprise result became clear, he played down his pre-election rhetoric, telling the media, "My immediate priority will be to fight all forms of terrorism."    Londoners fear terror attack    In the United Kingdom, many people now believe that their country could be next on the terrorists' list and once again the arguments about the rights and wrongs of military action in Iraq are top of the political agenda. The nation has been put on a heightened state of alert, with the public told to report any suspicious objects or persons to the police.    Tim Walsh, a construction worker who commutes daily into London, echoed the feelings of many of the capital's citizens. He said, "We have been told to be on the lookout for suspicious packages on the trains or buses. It doesn't make you feel happy about traveling on public transport. I feel uneasy about it, but what can you do? We all know that the terrorists will try to strike London next."    Tokyo less concerned    In Tokyo, the government has also tightened security, but the public mood is less gloomy than in London. Some analysts even believe the bombings might strengthen Koizumi's position.    Ryoji Yamauchi, a political commentator and president of Asahikawa University, said, "If it is confirmed that al-Qaeda has carried out these terror acts in Madrid, unlike in Europe, I do not think there will be any significant political fallout in Japan. In fact, it might even work to Koizumi's advantage. The dispatch of Japanese troops to Iraq will now be presented not only as a humanitarian mission but also as an important part of the 'war on terror'. This will probably work to Koizumi's advantage, as opinion polls show that the public do not think he has yet given a sufficient explanation for dispatching troops to Iraq."    Yamauchi added, "Most people think that a terrorist attack is highly unlikely in Japan. This is for two main reasons. First, since sending troops to [the Iraqi city of] Samawah, most Japanese have been convinced by the media that Arab people absolutely love them. This makes people think Japan is way down on the list of terror targets. Second, entry into Japan is already so tightly controlled that it is hard to imagine any terrorist being able to enter the country. Checks are already so strict that thousands of completely legitimate people suffer long security delays."    The Madrid bombings and the subsequent defeat of the Popular Party demonstrate that almost one year after the United States launched its invasion of Iraq, the war is still an immensely volatile political issue capable of destroying governments. This high degree of instability injects a large measure of unpredictability into the political fortunes of several world leaders. It certainly casts a shadow over Bush's re-election chances and clouds the political futures of Blair and Koizumi.    (J Sean Curtin is a GLOCOM fellow at the Tokyo-based Japanese Institute of Global Communications).     Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd.    March 15, 2004    "New Spanish Leader Lashes Out at Bush, Blair Over Iraq War " (Agence France Presse )    MADRID - Spain's prime minister-elect Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero vowed to withdraw troops from Iraq and criticized US President George W. Bush after Spanish voters ousted governing conservatives who took the country into the controversial war.    "The war in Iraq was a disaster, the occupation of Iraq is a disaster," Zapatero, 43, told Cadena Ser radio on Monday. Spanish prime minister-elect Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said George W. Bush and Tony Blair 'need to engage in some self-criticism' on their decision to launch a war against Iraq. He spoke just before the European Union held three minutes' silence in tribute to the 200 people killed in last Thursday's bombings of crowded Madrid commuter trains.    An ongoing investigation into the attacks has found growing evidence they were carried out by Islamic extremists linked to Al-Qaeda as punishment for Spain's help in the invasion and occupation of Iraq.    Voters turned out in force for Sunday's elections. Many of them expressed anger at retiring Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar when he cast his ballot, jostling and booing him while some shouted "Aznar: your war, our dead."    Zapatero, whose Socialist Party ended eight years of rule by Aznar's Popular Party (PP) after winning 43 percent of the ballots to the PP's 38 percent, said near-total public opposition to the Iraq war had been key.    He said that barring new developments in Iraq before June 30 -- the date the United States has promised to hand power over to an Iraqi provisional government -- Spain's 1,300 troops in Iraq "will return home" as he had promised before the elections.    The other occupying states will be contacted for consultations on withdrawing the soldiers, he said.    Zapatero also said Bush and his main ally, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, need to engage in "self-criticism". "You can't bomb a people just in case" they pose a perceived threat, Zapatero said in statements just five days before the first anniversary of the March 20 start of the war.    "You can't organize a war on the basis of lies," he said, alluding to Bush's and Blair's insistence the war was justified by their belief -- so far unfounded -- that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction that posed an imminent threat. "Wars such as that which has occurred in Iraq only allow hatred, violence and terror to proliferate," he said.    The head of the EU executive arm, European Commission chief Romano Prodi, agreed in an interview published by Italy's La Stampa newspaper Monday. "It is clear that using force is not the answer to resolving the conflict with terrorists," Prodi said. "Terrorism is infinitely more powerful than a year ago," and all of Europe now feels threatened, he told the paper.    The loss of the United States' and Britain's main ally has left Bush especially looking exposed as he faces the November presidential election. While Zapatero fielded congratulations from French President Jacques Chirac, South African President Thabo Mbeki and other world leaders, Bush had yet to make a call..    15th March,2004.    "Professor George Joffe analyses the aftermath of Spanish bombing", Interviewed by Tony Jones.    (Australian Broadcasting Corporation.Lateline. Broadcast: 15/03/2004.: Extract)    George Joffe is the research director of the North African Studies Centre which is part of the Centre for International Studies at Cambridge University.    TONY JONES: Let's look at how the new Spanish Government might do, how quickly they might move to pull their troops out of Iraq and what sort of rift are we going to see between Madrid and Washington?    PROFESSOR GEORGE JOFFE: Well, I think the rift is certainly between them.The Americans have already said that they would view such a move with extreme displeasure. It was said last night by Condoleeza Rice by Mr Rumsfeld and again by Colin Powell. Clearly they're going to be disturbed if the Spanish do that.    But there's a much more important rift, and that's inside Europe, because Mr Aznar was close to Mr Blair. To some extent, they operated together in their decision to go to war and they used similar justifications and both of them operated against public opinion.    Mr Blair, as a result of the election change and the attitude of the new Spanish Government, is going to be very isolated indeed inside Europe and that's going to have a profound effect on Europe policy.    The new Government is going to be close to Germany and to France.That means that part of the alignment of new Europe on which the Americans have placed considerable hopes has now been taken away. It's going to strengthen the divisions between Europe and the US over the question of the war on terror and indeed I suspect on the question of the occupation of Iraq.That means we've got a quite rocky time ahead in terms of Trans-Atlantic relations.    TONY JONES: What about the level in terms of how the European continent deals with terrorism from now on if this indeed is a shock equivalent to September 11. What will we see happen in terms of a crackdown, for example, to the huge Islamic communities in many European countries?    PROFESSOR GEORGE JOFFE: Well, there are around 10 million Muslims in Europe at the moment. That represents a major concentration of population.    To date, European has operated on a national basis. European governments have taken responsibility for their own terrorist legislation and for the operation of their security services and police.    There is now a call for that to be integrated, for there to be European system of intelligence at least.    There's already a European police system in operation. I think those pressures are going to be considerable. They'll also be pressure aligning the different systems so that the same kinds of punishments, the same kinds of restrictions can be applied throughout the whole of Europe.    There will also be calls for the restoration of national boundaries, simply to allow for the process of controlling populations and population movement.    The difficulty is going to be that in all those moves there is a great danger that European populations are going to see their own personal liberties being taken away and there are already great complaints here in Britain, for example, about those dangers.    I think therefore, there's going to be a difficult time before the Europeans find some mechanism by which they can effectively respond to these kinds of threats.    It may well be they don't and it will still operate on a national basis. There is also the other danger is that if it is integrated, the sheer weight of the bureaucracy may make it very inefficient. One final element that will be pushed, is greater collaboration with the Governments across the Mediterranean on the southern shore, who themselves have long looked to Europe for a more active and intensive struggle against terrorism.    TONY JONES: At a broader level - a last despairing question really - will there be an effort, a much bigger effort, a broader effort now on the part of Europe to try and solve the problems at the core of this terrorism in the Middle East?    PROFESSOR GEORGE JOFFE: Well, I would like to say that I believe that will be the case, that Europe would finally find the courage to say the to United States that its approach to the problems of the Middle East is wrong. I'm afraid I can't say that. And I can't say it because certainly governments in Europe still prioritise their relationships across the Atlantic over their relationships in the Middle East. Questions really need to be asked about that. We after all live next door to the Middle East. What happens there is of direct importance to Europeans and we should therefore be able to take a more independent line. But given the divisions between European governments that's simply is not going to happen. Visit the related web page
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