Man-made emissions are increasing the frequency of storms, floods and droughts by UN News, IPCC, Reuters & agencies 8:44am 18th Nov, 2011   November 2011    IPCC report spotlights links between global warming and extreme weather. (UN News)    A United Nations-backed report confirms the link between climate change and current trends in extreme weather such as floods and heat waves, and warns that existing measures, even in developed countries, are not enough to cope with the severity of these events.    The report, whose summary was approved today by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), reveals that high and low daily temperatures have risen on a global scale due to the rise of greenhouse gases, causing an increase in floods, heat waves, droughts, and other extremes associated with damage caused by high sea levels and heavy precipitation.    The report also states that extreme weather conditions have become more powerful and dangerous as a result of climate change, increasing the vulnerability of densely-populated regions in coastal zones as well as populations that live in conditions of poverty and have limited ways to cope with natural disasters.    “The world has entered a deadly new age where today’s extreme weather events are likely to become the norm,” said Margareta Wahlström, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction.    “Those who are already vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition, living without access to clean water and sanitation, and living in informal settlements have the least capacity to cope and adapt.    The IPCC special report is a call to governments worldwide to ensure that disaster risk reduction is at the heart of sustainable development during this century of climate change,” she said.    The report forecasts that hot days will become even hotter and occur more often on a global scale.    “For the high-emissions scenario, it is likely that the frequency of hot days will increase by a factor of 10 in most regions of the world,” said Thomas Stocker, co-chair of one of the report’s working groups.    “Likewise, heavy precipitation will occur more often, and the wind speed of tropical cyclones will increase.”    The report also warns of the catastrophic costs of inaction on climate change, stating that currently no country is fully prepared to deal with the effects of global warming.    “This summary for policy-makers provides insights into how disaster risk management and adaptation may assist vulnerable communities to better cope with a changing climate in a world of inequalities,” said Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the IPCC.    The report points out that although there are many options for decreasing risk, most have not been implemented.    “The ability of the world to become more climate-resilient will largely depend on the speed with which emissions can be decreased, and the extent to which the poor and vulnerable populations in developing countries are provided with necessary finance and technology to adapt to the inevitable,” said Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).    Developed countries pledged to give $30 billion between 2010 and 2012 to help developing countries tackle climate change, a commitment that was reiterated at the UN Climate Change Conference in Cancun last year.    In a statement released by UNFCCC, Ms. Figueres called on governments to step up their efforts towards this cause at the UN Climate Change Conference in Durban at the end of the month.    Nov (Reuters)    Global climate talks need to focus on the growing threat from extreme weather and shift away from political squabbles that hobble progress towards a tougher pact to rein in greenhouse gas emissions, the head of the U.N. climate panel said.    Negotiators from nearly 200 countries will meet in Durban, South Africa, for two-week talks, with currently minimal expectations of major progress towards an agreement that will eventually bind all major economies to emissions caps.    Rajendra Pachauri warned the latest round of talks risked being bogged down by "short-term and narrow political considerations".    "It is absolutely essential that the negotiators get a continuous and repeated exposure to the science of climate change," Pachauri told Reuters in an interview late on Tuesday.    "If we were to do that it will definitely have an impact on the quality and outcome of the negotiations, after all these are human beings, they have families, they are people also worried about what is going to happen to the next generations."    Pachauri heads the U.N."s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which issued a report for policymakers on Friday saying an increase in heat waves is almost certain, while heavier rain, more floods, stronger cyclones, landslides and more intense droughts are likely across the globe this century.    "I am afraid the way the whole thing is structured loses sight of these realities," Pachauri said of the talks.    The report comes after a year of costly weather disasters, from floods in Thailand to a string of multi-billion dollar disasters in the United States that have killed hundreds.    At best Durban is expected to result in modest steps towards a deal to lower emissions from factories, power stations and transport that scientists say are heating up the planet.    The negotiations have become a battleground between rich and poor nations on the question of how much cuts in greenhouse gases each should take, with developing countries insisting they should be allowed to emit more to grow out of poverty.    "When you have 400 million people who have no access to electricity, can you in the 21st century deny them the very basis of what the rest of the world has been living on for the last 150 years?," Pachauri said of India.    Pachauri is an Indian scientist who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore. He has since become a target for climate change sceptics who question the panel"s data.    The IPCC issues major reports every 5 to 6 years for policymakers that involves the work of thousands of scientists. The next major report will be released in 2013-14.    Talking in his cluttered Delhi office, Pachauri said climate change was already triggering more extreme weather and the world needed to prepare for more to come.    The IPCC report gave differing probabilities for weather events based on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. He said the conclusions were clear.    "Two things come out very clearly from this, the link between climate change and heatwaves and the link between climate change and extreme precipitation and sea level rises, Pachauri said.    "Given the fact that you are not going to bring about a turn-around immediately, then you really have to adapt to them in the short run."    Limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius -- a threshold scientists say risks dangerous climate change -- will be difficult but not impossible, Pachauri said.    Global carbon emissions rose by a record amount last year, rebounding on the heels of recession.    The United Nations, the International Energy Agency and others say global pledges to curb emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are not enough to prevent the planet heating up beyond 2 degrees.    "If we want to do that on a low-cost trajectory, then we will have to ensure that CO2 emissions peak no later than 2015, and that"s just 4 years away. In other words, beyond 2015 they will have to start declining."    Nov 2011    U.N. Panel finds Climate Change behind Extreme Weather. (NYT)    Greenhouse gas emissions related to human activity have already led to more record-high temperatures, as well as to greater coastal flooding and more extremes of precipitation, the latest IPCC report said.    The findings come at a time of unusual weather disasters around the globe, from catastrophic flooding in Asia and Australia to blizzards, floods, heat waves, droughts, wildfires and windstorms in the United States.    “A hotter, moister atmosphere is an atmosphere primed to trigger disasters,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton University climate scientist and a principal author of the new report. “As the world gets hotter, the risk gets higher.”    The new report on extreme weather, essentially refines findings that have been emerging in climate science papers in recent years.    The report predicted that certain types of weather extremes will grow more numerous and more intense as human-induced global warming worsens in coming decades.    “It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur in the 21st century on the global scale,” the report said.    “It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe.”    In future years, if greenhouse emissions continue unabated, the type of heat wave that now occurs once every 20 years will be occurring every couple of years across large areas of the planet, the report predicted.    Even as such extremes are projected to increase, human vulnerability to them is growing as well, the report said.    Rising populations and flawed decisions about land use, like permitting unchecked coastal development, are putting more and more people in harm’s way, the report said.    “Rapid urbanization and the growth of megacities, especially in the developing countries, have led to the emergence of highly vulnerable urban communities, particularly through informal settlements” — meaning slums — “and inadequate land management,” the report said.    It called on governments to do a better job of protecting people and heading off catastrophes before they strike.    18 Nov. 2011    Extreme weather will strike as climate change takes hold, IPCC warns. (The Guardian)    Heavier rainfall, fiercer storms and intensifying droughts are likely to strike the world in the coming decades as climate change takes effect, the world"s leading climate scientists said on Friday.    Rising sea levels will increase the vulnerability of coastal areas, and the increase in "extreme weather events" will wipe billions off national economies and destroy lives, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the body of the world"s leading climate scientists convened by the United Nations.    Scientists have warned of these effects for years, but Friday"s report – the "special report on extreme weather" compiled over two years by 220 scientists – is the first comprehensive examination of scientific knowledge on the subject.    The report contained stark warnings for developing countries in particular, which are likely to be worst afflicted in part because of their geography but also because they are less well prepared for extreme weather in their infrastructure and have less economic resilience than developed nations.    But the developed world will not escape unscathed – heavier rainfall, heatwaves and droughts are all likely to take their toll.    Chris Field, co-chair of the IPCC working group that produced the report, said the message was clear – extreme weather events were more likely. "Some important extremes have changed and will change more in the future. There is clear and solid evidence of this. We also know much more about the causes of disaster losses."    He urged governments to take note – many of the economic and human impacts of disasters can be avoided if prompt action is taken: "We are losing way too many lives and economic assets in disasters."    The report was timed just ahead of crucial talks taking place later this month in Durban, South Africa, where the world"s governments will discuss a new global agreement to tackle greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.    Europe"s climate chief, Connie Hedegaard, said the report should galvanise governments to act, especially when added to the stark warnings last week from the International Energy Agency that the world has only five years to take the emissions-cutting measures needed to prevent catastrophic global warming.    Hedegaard said: "Last week, the serious warnings from the International Energy Agency. Today, this IPCC report. It goes without saying that this is yet another wake-up call. With all the knowledge and rational arguments in favour of urgent climate action, it is frustrating to see that some governments do not show the political will to act. In light of the even more compelling facts, the question has to be put to those governments in favour of postponing decisions: for how long can you defend your inaction?"    Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute, said the report meant the science was now clear: "This expert review of the latest available scientific evidence clearly shows that climate change is already having an impact in many parts of the world on the frequency, severity and location of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts and flash floods.    The report shows that if we do not stop the current steep rise in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, we will see much more warming and dramatic changes in extreme weather that are likely to overwhelm any attempts human populations might make to adapt to their impacts."    There was a stark warning for the Northern hemisphere, and areas of Europe and North America where currently hurricanes hardly ever happen. There has been a "poleward shift" in the pattern of the storms, which will mean severe storms are more likely to strike areas such as New York and the Atlantic coast of Europe.    Scientific models also show that it is "very likely" – a term that denotes, in IPCC parlance, a 90% to 100% probability – that the "length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase over most land areas". This means that record hot days, which previously could be expected once in 20 years, are now likely every other year.    The report said: "It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe. Heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are likely to increase with continued warming."    The scientists were reluctant to translate this into concrete warnings over the frequency of floods, because floods depend on local factors such as topography, but said floods, mudslides and landslips are associated with stronger rainfall punctuated by drier spells.    The scientists said that "droughts will intensify in the 21st century, due to reduced precipitation".    Development campaigners urged swift action from governments meeting at the end of this month in Durban, South Africa, to continue negotiations on a global agreement to tackle climate change.    Tim Gore, Oxfam climate change adviser, said: "This is a warning bell for world leaders to act now on climate change to save lives and money. The link between climate change and an increase in the frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events is becoming ever clearer, and it is the world"s poorest and most vulnerable people who are being hit the worst.    Floods and droughts like those which recently hit east Asia and the Horn of Africa can wipe out whole harvests, contributing to soaring food prices and driving poor people into hunger."    He added: "Estimates suggest that every dollar invested in adaptation to climate change could save $60 in damages. Governments must find the new money needed to invest now, and avoid the far higher costs of clean-up and lives lost later."    Jake Schmidt of the US-based Natural Resources Defense Council said: "This report should be a wake-up call to those that believe that climate change is some distant issue that might impact someone else. The report documents that extreme weather is happening now and that global warming will bring very dangerous events in the future. From the report you can see that extreme weather will impact everyone in one way or another. This is a window into the future if our political response doesn"t change quickly."    The Red Cross warned that disaster agencies were already dealing with the effects of climate change in vulnerable countries across the world. "The findings of this report certainly tally with what the Red Cross Movement is seeing, which is a rise in the number of weather-related emergencies around the world," said Maarten van Aalst, director of the Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre and coordinating lead author of the IPCC report. "We are committed to responding to disasters whenever and wherever they happen, but we have to recognise that if the number of disasters continues to increase, the current model we have for responding to them is simply impossible to sustain."    Insurers are also worried, the insurance giant Swiss Re, said that the massive increase in insurance claims was causing serious concern. He said that between 1970 and 1989, the insurance industry globally had paid out an average of $5bn a year in weather-related claims, but that this had increased enormously to $27bn a year.    * Access the IPCC report via http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/. Visit the related web page
	Next (more recent) news item
	Next (older) news item