Global AIDS Epidemic continues to grow in all regions. UN Report by AP / Reuters / UN News 10:32am 22nd Nov, 2006   Nov. 27, 2006    AIDS set to become top three killer worldwide. (Associated Press)    Within the next 25 years, AIDS is set to join heart disease and stroke as the top three causes of death worldwide, with estimates that at least 117 million people will die from the disease by 2030, according to a study published online Monday.    When global mortality projections were last calculated a decade ago, researchers had assumed the number of AIDS cases would be declining. Instead, it"s on the rise.    "It will be increasingly hard to sustain treatment programs unless we can turn off the tap of new HIV infections." - London epidemiology Prof. Richard Hays    Currently ranked fourth behind heart disease, stroke, and respiratory infections, AIDS is set to become No. 3, say researchers in a new report in the Public Library of Science"s Medicine journal. It accounts for about 2.8 million deaths every year, but could near 120 million by 2030.    Overall, the researchers predict that in three decades, the causes of global mortality will be strikingly similar worldwide, apart from the prevalence of AIDS in poorer countries. Most people will be dying at older ages of noninfectious diseases like cardiovascular disease, stroke and cancer.    The paper was produced by Dr. Colin Mathers and Dejan Loncar of the World Health Organization. In an optimistic future projection, if new HIV infections are curbed and access to life-prolonging antiretrovirals is increased, 89 million people will die from the disease.    "What happens in the future depends very much on what the international community does now," Mathers said.    21 Nov 2006    HIV infections on rise in all regions- U.N. report, by Stephanie Nebehay.(Reuters)    HIV infections are on the rise in all regions and in China the deadly virus is gradually spreading from high-risk groups to the general population, the United Nations said on Tuesday. Nearly 40 million adults and children are infected worldwide and the most striking increases in new cases have been in east Asia and in eastern Europe/central Asia, mainly due to drug use and unsafe sex, UNAIDS and the World Health Organisation said.    Sub-Saharan Africa still bears the brunt of the AIDS scourge, with 24.7 million or nearly two-thirds of people living with HIV globally, according to the report.    "In the past two years, the number of people living with HIV increased in every region in the world," said the report which largely drew comparisons with adjusted figures for 2004 rather than 2005, due to changes in methodology and data.    China"s drug-fuelled HIV epidemic, which accounts for about half of the country"s estimated 650,000 infections, has reached "alarming proportions", the agencies said in a joint annual report "2006 AIDS Epidemic Update".    "With HIV spreading gradually from most-at-risk populations to the general population, the number of HIV infections in women is growing too," the report said of China.    Of the 2.9 million global deaths from AIDS last year, 2.1 million occurred in Africa, heart of the 25-year-old epidemic.    Some 4.3 million people across the globe became infected with HIV this year, with a heavy concentration among young people, bringing the total number of people with the killer disease to an estimated 39.5 million. Africa recorded 2.8 million new infections this year.    DIVERGENT AFRICAN TRENDS    Some countries including Uganda are seeing a resurgence of infection rates after having successfully reduced them, according to the report.    "This is worrying -- as we know, increased HIV prevention programmes in these countries have shown progress in the past -- Uganda being a prime example," said UNAIDS Executive Director Peter Piot. "We need to greatly intensify life-saving prevention efforts while we expand HIV treatment programmes".    The report cited "evidence of diminishing or stable HIV spreadin most east African and west African countries", while epidemics continue to grow in Mozambique, South Africa and Swaziland.    "One third of all people with HIV globally live in southern Africa and 34 percent of all deaths due to AIDS in 2006 occurred there," it noted.    In South Africa, where an estimated 5.5 million people have HIV, the epidemic continues unabated, suggesting the disease"s prevalence has not yet reached a plateau, it said.    But even stability of epidemics in some countries masks high rates of new HIV infections and AIDS deaths in places including Lesotho -- where one in four adults have the disease.    Life expectancy for women in Zimbabwe is now among the lowest in the world at 34 years, while for men it is 37 years.    HIGH-RISK BEHAVIOUR    In Asia, an estimated 8.6 million people are living with HIV, an increase of nearly one million, and 630,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in the vast region this year.    India, where the epidemic appears to be stable or diminishing in some parts while growing modestly in others, has 5.7 million infected people, mainly through heterosexual sex.    In China, where the epidemic began in rural areas, the report noted concerns that its large number of migrants (an estimated 120-150 million) could spread the virus even further.    "HIV outbreaks among men who have sex with men are now becoming evident in Cambodia, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam," the report said.    Yet very few had national AIDS programmes which adequately address the role of sex between men in spreading epidemics.    Younger HIV epidemics in eastern Europe and central Asia continue to grow, especially in Ukraine which has the highest HIV adult prevalence in all of Europe, estimated at 1.5 percent.    In Russia, where 80 percent of an estimated 940,000 people with HIV are under 30, drug use is the main mode of spread.    In Latin America, two-thirds of the estimated 1.7 million people living with HIV reside in the four largest countries: Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Argentina. In the United States, an estimated 1.2 million were living with the virus in 2005.    21 November 2006 (UN News)    Despite some promising trends, the global AIDS epidemic continues to grow, with 2.9 million deaths and 4.3 million new HIV infections in the past year, amid worrying evidence of a resurgence in infection rates in some countries that were previously stable or declining, according to latest United Nations data released today.    "It is imperative that we continue to increase investment in both HIV prevention and treatment services to reduce unnecessary deaths and illness from this disease," UN World Health Organization (WHO) Acting Director-General Anders Nordstrom said of the 2006 AIDS Epidemic Update, compiled by WHO and UNAIDS, the Joint UN Programme on HIV/AIDS.    "In sub-Saharan Africa, the worst affected region, life expectancy at birth is now just 47 years, which is 30 years less than most high-income countries," he added of the data, which show that 2.8 million, or 65 per cent, of new infections occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, with important increases in Eastern Europe and Central Asia where some indications register a more than 50 per cent rise since 2004.    Overall an estimated 39.5 million people are living with HIV worldwide.    Among positive trends noted are declines in infection rates in some countries, changes in young people"s sexual behaviours, and increased access to treatment and prevention programmes. But in many countries prevention programmes are not reaching those most at risk, such as young people, women and girls, men who have sex with men, sex workers and their clients, injecting drug users, and ethnic and cultural minorities.    In North America and Western Europe, prevention programmes have often not been sustained and new infection rates have remained the same. In low- and middle-income countries, there are only a few examples of rate reductions. And some countries that had shown earlier successes in reducing new infections, such as Uganda, have either slowed or are now experiencing increasing infection rates.    "This is worrying" as we know increased HIV prevention programmes in these countries have shown progress in the past, Uganda being a prime example," UNAIDS Executive Director Peter Piot said. "This means that countries are not moving at the same speed as their epidemics. We need to greatly intensify life-saving prevention efforts while we expand HIV treatment programmes.    Increased prevention programmes focused to reach those most at risk of infection are making inroads, according to the report. Positive trends in young people"s sexual behaviours, increased use of condoms, delay of sexual debut, and fewer sexual partners, have taken place over the past decade in many countries with generalized epidemics.    Declines in HIV prevalence among young people between 2000 and 2005 are evident in Botswana, Burundi, Cote d"Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe.    In other countries, even limited resources show high returns when investments are focused on those most likely to be exposed. In China, some programmes for sex workers have seen marked increases in condom use and decreases in rates of sexually transmitted infections. Programmes with injecting drug users also show progress in some regions.    In Portugal, HIV diagnoses among drug injectors were almost one third lower in 2005, compared with 2001, following special programmes focused on HIV and drug use.    The report outlines how women and girls need increased attention. In sub-Saharan Africa women continue to be more likely than men to be infected with HIV and in most countries in the region they are also more likely to be the ones caring for those infected.    There is increasing evidence of outbreaks among men who have sex with men in Cambodia, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand and Viet Nam as well as across Latin America, but most national programmes fail to address the specific needs of these people, the report notes. The overlap between injecting drug use and sex work in Latin America, Eastern Europe and particularly Asia is also not being addressed.    In Latin America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, and North Africa weak surveillance often means that people at highest risk "men who have sex with men, sex workers, and injecting drug users" are not adequately reached through prevention and treatment strategies because not enough is known about their particular situations and realities. Visit the related web page
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