HIV AIDS - 'Set to infect 90 Million Africans' by BBC News / Reuters 12:52pm 5th Mar, 2005   4th March, 2005 (BBC News)    The UN says the worst is yet to come with the Aids epidemic. Nearly 90 million Africans could be infected by HIV in the next 20 years if more is not done to combat the epidemic, the UN has warned.    Some 25 million Africans have HIV, which causes Aids, at present. The world body estimates the next two decades could see 89 million new cases of the disease in Africa - or up to 10% of the continent's population. The UN recommends a committed campaign against HIV/Aids - and $200bn (£105bn) of investment - to stem its spread.    At best, taking more action against HIV/Aids could save 16 million people from dying of the disease and a further 43 million people from contracting it, the UN says.    "Millions of new infections can be prevented if Africa and the rest of the world decide to tackle Aids as an exceptional crisis that has the potential to devastate entire societies and economies," said UNAids chief Peter Piot.    The UN report concludes that if millions of Africans are still being infected by HIV by 2025, "it will not be because there was no choice". "It will be because, collectively, there was insufficient political will to change behaviour at all levels... and halt the forces driving the Aids epidemic in Africa."    The study, entitled Aids in Africa, was compiled over two years using more than 150 experts. According to the BBC's UN correspondent, Susannah Price, it demonstrates the dramatic impact government policies could have on the spread of HIV and Aids in Africa.    Epidemic threat    The report offers three different models of how the disease could affect the continent in 20 years, based on how much money and effort is invested in fighting it. The worst-case scenario, in which funding and policies stay as they are now, foresees a fourfold increase in the total number of people dying from Aids.    The report also looks at two more positive outcomes. In the best-case scenario, international aid flows to Africa are doubled, investment in health systems is increased and agriculture and education and treatment is dramatically improved. The report says that even in this case the total number of deaths would continue to rise.    According to our correspondent, the UN offers hope that the effective use of resources could eventually end the Aids epidemic in Africa. At the same time, it warns that current levels of action could see the disease bring the entire continent to its knees.    Simon Wright, of ActionAid, said: "We are being shown the future and unless we act now it is very stark. "All countries must be more ambitious in fighting Aids, otherwise generations of Africans will be lost."    4 March, 2005,    Up to 89 Million More AIDS Victims in Africa by 2025, by Tsegaye Tadesse. (Reuters)    ADDIS ABABA - A further 89 million people in Africa could be infected by the HIV virus by 2025 in the continent's biggest crisis since slavery, the United Nations said on Friday.    The worst case scenario, which projects a four-fold increase in deaths from the killer disease over 20 years, was one of three contained in a report by the UNAIDS agency. "With the HIV/AIDS pandemic spreading across the continent, Africa is facing an unprecedented crisis and a challenge never before seen since the advent of slavery," said Peter Piot, executive director of the Geneva-based UNAIDS.    Even with strong control programs -- at a cumulative cost of $200 billion -- 46 million new infections are forecast in Africa during the period, according to the report, "AIDS in Africa: Three scenarios to 2025."    This best case scenario means 43 million new HIV infections could be averted between now and 2025, it said. Some 25 million people in sub-Saharan Africa are already living with HIV/AIDS, 70 percent of the total number worldwide. The virus affects around 5 percent of the adult population and the epidemic has orphaned some 11 million children.    Piot urged countries in the world's poorest continent to take tough measures to tackle the huge problem, suggesting that help from rich countries would be limited. "Many lives could be saved and entire economies could be profoundly changed through determined collective efforts of all African nations by 2025," Piot told a news conference. "In the absence of sustained international response, African resourcefulness, indigenous solutions and resilience could enable the continent to turn the corner on HIV and AIDS."    Piot was speaking in Ethiopia, which is cited in the U.N. report as the country with the 16th highest rate of prevalence in the world, with some 5,000 people being infected every week.    A bright spot in the study related to African cities like Addis Ababa, Harare and Lusaka, where awareness and the "unprecedented use of condoms" had dramatically reduced the rate of HIV infection, Piot said. However, he noted that the infection rates were getting worse in rural areas.    The report was based on projections mapped out over two years in collaboration with institutions including the African Union, African Development Bank, World Bank as well as Royal Dutch Shell which shared its expertise. "The death toll will continue to rise, no matter what is done," the report's summary said. "The scenarios suggest that, while the worst of the epidemic's impact is still to come, there is still a great deal that can be done to change the longer-term trajectory of the epidemic," it added.    (Additional reporting by Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva)
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