Era of Repression ends as Indonesia chooses a President by Washington Post / BBC / The Independent 8:49am 5th Jul, 2004   Jakarta, Indonesia: July 7, 2004    "Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri is projected to make runoff in Indonesia Presidential Elections and face top vote-getter Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono", By Alan Sipress (Washington Post Foreign Service)    President Megawati Sukarnoputri narrowly made it through the first round of Monday's nationwide election and will face a runoff Sept. 20 with her former chief security minister, Gen. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, according to projections released Tuesday.    A tally of sample districts compiled by the Washington-based National Democratic Institute showed that Megawati will qualify in the race against Yudhoyono, who was projected as the top vote finisher.    The institute, which reported earlier that Megawati was in a statistical dead heat for second place, said revised estimates based on additional returns showed her outdistancing the former armed forces commander, Gen. Wiranto, by almost 3 percent.    The quick count, based on results in 1,719 polling stations, gave Megawati slightly more than 25 percent of the vote. That would be much better than election eve projections, which suggested that Megawati, the daughter of Indonesia's founding father, the late president Sukarno, might be turned out of office. Many voters had expressed disappointment with her leadership, only three years after she ascended to the presidency as a symbol of the country's democratic aspirations.    Indonesia's election commission, reporting that more than 40 percent of the vote had been counted, said Yudhoyono was leading early Wednesday with 34 percent, followed by Megawati with 27 percent. Wiranto trailed with 22 percent. Two other contenders were far behind.    Rizal Mallarangeng, a political analyst close to the president, said Megawati had reversed her sagging fortunes by retooling her campaign strategy in recent weeks. Widely considered aloof, she took her campaign from the palace to crowded markets and revamped her television advertising, portraying herself as a caring, motherly figure, Mallarangeng said.    At the same time, he said, Yudhoyono's runaway popularity began to slip as voters took a closer look at a candidate who had surged into the lead only since leaving the cabinet in March. Just last week, some surveys showed Yudhoyono, commonly known by his initials SBY, within reach of an outright majority, but now he looked unlikely to reach 40 percent of the votes.    "If I were SBY, I would not only be a little worried. I wouldn't be able to sleep," Mallarangeng said, asserting that the momentum has shifted to Megawati. But Daniel Sparringa, a political sociologist at Airlangga University, said Yudhoyono remained in a strong position for the runoff. Sparringa contended that Megawati had moved up quickly because of an anonymous smear campaign against Yudhoyono. Spread by cell phone text messages and leaflets, the campaign accused him of supporting strict Islamic law and being insensitive to non-Muslim minorities. Sparringa did not blame Megawati for the attacks.    Though Wiranto also fared better than polls predicted, the National Democratic Institute projection indicated that his effort fell short. His elimination from the race would remove a potential irritant in relations between the United States and Indonesia. U.S. officials have expressed concern about the prospect of a Wiranto presidency. He has been indicted by a special U.N.-backed tribunal examining crimes against humanity during a wave of militia killings in East Timor after its 1999 vote for independence from Indonesia.    Analysts said a crucial question would be whether Wiranto and his Golkar Party, the largest in parliament, would give unified support to either Yudhoyono or Megawati.    Former president Jimmy Carter, who led a mission from the Atlanta-based Carter Center observing the election, praised Indonesians for their "commitment to an honest and democratic procedure."    "This is a major step forward on a global scale," Carter said. He said that Indonesians "almost miraculously" have established a successful democracy just six years after the end of former president Suharto's authoritarian rule. Indonesia had demonstrated that the world's most populous Muslim country could adopt a democratic system and secular government, he said.    © 2004 The Washington Post Company    05 July 2004    "Era of Repression ends as Indonesia chooses a President", by Kathy Marks. (The Independent / UK)    Indonesians will choose a president for the first time in their nation's history today when up to 153 million people go to the polls.    The incumbent, Megawati Sukarnoputri, faces four rivals, including one of her former ministers, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in Indonesia's first direct presidential election. Opinion polls place Mr Yudhoyono well ahead of the pack. If he fails to win more than 50 per cent of the vote, he will fight the runner-up in a second round in November.    The former general has broad-based support in the world's most populous Muslim country, despite a whispering campaign claiming he is secretly a Christian. A separate rumour has him plotting to introduce sharia (Islamic law) if elected.    But religious issues and affiliations have been peripheral to the presidential race. Indonesia prides itself on its generally tolerant brand of Islam. Voters are also discarding traditional party loyalties in favour of candidates perceived to have leadership qualities and personal integrity. The freedom to choose their own leader was beyond Indonesians' wildest dreams during 32 years of repressive rule by the former dictator, President Suharto. He was forced to resign in 1998 by massive street demonstrations.    Since then, Indonesia has been led by three civilian presidents. None of them were effective leaders. But many observers believe that, in a country still emerging from authoritarianism, the practice of democracy is more important than the outcome.    "We are building an electoral system that will reinforce our democratic institutions," said Wimar Witoelar, an author and columnist. "In the past, elections were periods of oppression. Now they are a celebration of freedom."    Indonesians are keenly aware that they are writing a new page in their history. Even after Suharto fell, the president was elected by parliament. "For the first time, we can choose the leader we want," said Joan Henuhili, a public relations consultant.    Many voters still regard democracy as a mixed blessing, however. While they welcome such novelties as a free press, they hanker for the stability and relative prosperity of the Suharto era.    During the chaotic transition to democracy, Indonesia has been racked by sectarian conflict and separatist uprisings in Aceh and Papua. Freedom has spawned radical Islamist groups such as Jemaah Islamiya, which bombed two Bali nightclubs in 2002. Crime and unemployment have risen, along with prices. Corruption remains entrenched.    While the military's influence has waned, the armed forces are still not under effective political control. It was only recently that the military gave up its guaranteed block of seats in parliament.    July 8, 2004    "In Indonesia, appearances can be deceiving", by Damien Kingsbury. (TheAge)    It was little surprise that the former lieutenant-general, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, was returned as the most favoured candidate in the first round of Indonesia's presidential elections on Monday, even if his vote was well below the most recent polls. But in Indonesian politics, things are not always how they appear.    Yudhoyono was polling about 45 per cent before Monday but, based on a nationwide sample by the National Democratic Institute, he looks to have secured about 34 per cent of the actual vote. This means that, despite some predictions of an outright victory in the first round, Yudhoyono will have to go to Indonesia's second presidential round in September.    Yudhoyono's slippage reflected his lack of reach into the villages, where most voters still live. This is because Yudhoyono does not control a party machine that can match either former general Wiranto's Golkar - the party of former president Soeharto - or Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).    It was also widely expected that the incumbent, Megawati Soekarnoputri, would lose votes in this election, based on the polls but, more importantly, on the results from the legislative elections in April. NDI's figures show her just 1 per cent ahead of Wiranto, on 24 per cent, and with a margin of error of just over 1 per cent. That is, the race between Megawati and Wiranto is neck and neck.    Wiranto has climbed from about 5 per cent popularity only a few weeks ago, reflecting the efficacy of a party machine and vote-buying.    If Megawati stays ahead of Wiranto, after dropping out, he will probably allocate his support, and that of Golkar, to Yudhoyono, who will consequently romp home in September.    However, if Wiranto edges ahead of Megawati, as third-placegetter, she is unlikely to support her former politics and security minister, Yudhoyono, and will probably back Wiranto. If this happens, Wiranto will be a real chance for the presidency.    International opinion has Wiranto as an undesirable president because, as commander in chief of the Indonesian army, he oversaw the death and destruction in East Timor in 1999. He also retains close links to deposed president Soeharto and his family, although he has denied having his election campaign funded by them.    Megawati was widely regarded as incompetent, which she continued to demonstrate in the lead-up to the election. For example, she cited as a highlight of her economic management a Filipino beer company opening a branch in Indonesia. And her calls for Indonesians to vote for the prettiest candidate only earned her derision.    Most foreign governments, including Australia's, are unusual in the openness of their support for Yudhoyono, who is Western-educated, a moderately competent manager, and was seen as a military reformer.    Yet Yudhoyono enjoys the backing of Indonesia's two most radical Islamic parties, the Justice and Welfare Party and the Star and Moon Party, which have links to Islamic militias. And he is also supported by the hawks in the Indonesian military (TNI).    It has also been claimed that Yudhoyono's campaign was bankrolled by a major businessman, himself accused of various illegal practices and who is the key financier of the TNI. That is to say, even though Yudhoyono is touted by international governments as the cleanest, most reformist candidate, this may not quite be the case.    In the war-torn province of Aceh, too, Yudhoyono carries a reputation for overseeing the May 2003 declaration of martial law, in which tens of thousands of troops entered the province ahead of widespread killing, torture and destruction. Reports from North Aceh on election day said soldiers had been rounding up villagers who were reluctant to vote, forcing them to the polling booths and telling them to vote for Yudhoyono.    But regardless of who wins the second round of elections in September, Indonesia's crippling problems will remain. Any future Indonesian president will have to face high and growing unemployment and poverty, a business and investment climate that remains a shambles, active radical Islam and, not least, a cohesive and politically resurgent TNI.    Senior TNI officers may have their favourite candidates but, in the final analysis, they know their political strength lies in institutional unity, and it is this that will underpin any new president.    (Dr Damien Kingsbury, who was in Indonesia for the elections, is senor lecturer in international development at Deakin University and author or editor of several books on Indonesian politics).    May 18th, 2004.    Profile: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, by Rachel Harvey (BBC correspondent in Jakarta).    As Indonesians prepare for their first direct presidential election on 5 July, the latest opinion polls suggest a retired general is the frontrunner. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, also known by his initials SBY, is drawing support from his image as a man of integrity, a strong communicator and firm leader in times of crisis.    Mr Yudhoyono is probably best known internationally for his leading role in Indonesia's fight against terrorism in the wake of the Bali bombing in 2002. His speech on the anniversary of the attack was seen as one of the strongest delivered by any Indonesian leader on an issue which is still politically sensitive.    But critics say the former military commander is surprisingly indecisive, tending to consider all perspectives and opinions before making up his own mind. Budi Santoso, chairman of Mr Yudhoyono's Democrat party, agrees he is a thoughtful man, but says he is capable of making decisive moves when necessary. "For example, while other presidential candidates where still looking about for suitable running mates, Susilo had already chosen Jusuf Kalla as his vice president," Mr Santoso said.    The man dubbed "The thinking general" was born in 1949 in East Java. The son of a retired army lieutenant, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono graduated from Indonesia's military academy in 1973. Two years later Indonesian security forces invaded East Timor. As he rose through the ranks, Mr Yudhoyono completed several tours of duty in the territory. By the time of East Timor's violent transition to independence in 1999, he had been promoted to Chief of Territorial Affairs. As such he would have reported directly to General Wiranto, the former head of the armed forces who has now been indicted for war crimes by a special tribunal in East Timor.    But there has never been any attempt to bring charges against Mr Yudhoyono. His supporters say he was not part of the inner circle of military commanders accused of allowing the violence to spread. That distinction is particularly important given that General Wiranto is now one of Mr Yudhoyono's main rivals for the presidency.    In fact, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono never quite achieved the highest levels in the military to which he aspired. His four star General status was an honorary award given to him when he left the army to join the government of Abdurrahman Wahid in 2000. He started as minister for mines but was soon promoted to chief minister for security and political affairs. A year later he found himself in conflict with his boss. Facing impeachment, President Wahid asked Mr Yudhoyono to declare a state of emergency. Mr Yudhoyono declined, and promptly lost his job.    In March 2004, history repeated itself. Mr Yudhoyono, reappointed as senior political and security minister under President Megawati, stepped down after a very public spat with the president and her husband.    The decision to resign, according to Denny Ja, executive director of the Indonesian Survey Institute, has paid off handsomely. "Even though SBY was a senior member of a deeply unpopular government, he has come to be seen as a victim of that government rather than part of it," said Mr Ja.    Being forced from office under successive presidents seems to have enhanced Mr Yudhoyono's reputation as a man of principle, willing to sacrifice his own ambitions for the values he believes in. That - and the fact he looks good on TV - makes him a potential election winner, according to Denny Ja. "You have to remember that 60% of the population only graduated from elementary school, so they don't investigate candidates too closely," Mr Ja said. "When we ask people who is most competent to run the economy and security, people put SBY first. Whatever the truth, that's the perception and perception matters."    Mr Yudhoyono says he has travelled the length and breadth of Indonesia, talking to ordinary people. "I understand what they feel; I know their expectations" he recently told a crowded room full of supporters...
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